The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Atlanta Motor Speedway this week for the Ambetter Health 400. This track was repaved and reconfigured before the races last year and not it races more like a Superspeedway. The betting strategy at the Superspeedway races is to take some chances with some long shots “because any driver can win the race.” While that narrative is partially true this week at Atlanta, the winners last year were William Byron and Chase Elliott.
My strategy this week will be to wager on three drivers who I think has a fantastic chance to win this week, and then take a chance with three drivers who have longer odds and ran well at Atlanta in this aero package last year.
I have been asked by some people to explain how I place my best each week. Each race is different, but my goal every race is to win more money than I bet. I do not wager on the races to try and become rich. I do it because I think it is fun. You should treat it the same way and bet only as much as you can afford to lose.
Here are my bets if your bankroll for the race is $100….
ROSS CHASTAIN: Bet $20 at 12-1 odds to win $240
RYAN BLANEY: Bet $20 at 12-1 odds to win $240
KYLE BUSCH: Bet $20 at 12-1 odds to win $240
DANIEL SUAREZ: Bet $10 at 25-1 odds to win $250
ERIK JONES: Bet $5 at 35-1 odds to win $150
COREY LAJOIE: Bet $5 at 50-1 odds to win $250
– So I will bet $80 and I will win at least $70 if any of my drivers win. I will save the last $20 for the Group Matchups “if” DraftKings posts them this week.
DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR ATLANTA
* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.
** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on William Byron at 10-1 odds, you will win $10.
Here are my “Best Bets” for the Ambetter Health 400
ROSS CHASTAIN (12-1): Chastain was the best driver at Atlanta last year. He finished second in both races. Most of the drivers said after the race, “This area package forces you to be aggressive. If you lose momentum, you will go straight to the back and it is tough to get the track position back.” Is there a more aggressive driver in the Cup Series than Chastain? The Chevy’s have won every race this year. I will bet that Chastain can keep their streak going this week at Atlanta.
RYAN BLANEY (12-1): I have a lot of Chevy’s on my betting card this week. The Fords ran well in the pack at Daytona, so I will take a chance with a Ford Sunday. It is tough to bet a driver to win when he has not been to Victory Lane in 50 races, but Blaney is a great Superspeedway driver. He finished fifth in this race last year and he finished second last week (so he has some momentum). Blaney will win a race in 2023. I will bet is happens Sunday at Atlanta.
KYLE BUSCH (12-1): There is a lot to like about Busch Sunday. The Chevy’s have dominated Victory Lane and Busch drivers for the “Bowtie Brigade.” Rowdy also look really fast in the Daytona 500. He likely would have won the race without the late race caution. Now that Busch has had a year to figure out the new Atlanta, I will bet he can get the No. 8 car to Victory Lane for the second time in 2023.
DANIEL SUAREZ (25-1): If I told you before the start of the 2022 season that the Trackhouse Racing cars would have the most speed in the Cup Series, you probably would have thought Suarez would be the driver winning all of the races. Before the start of last year, Ross Chastain was considered a “journeyman driver” and Suarez was considered the top talent for the team. Well, Chastain figured out the cars first and he had all of the success. Now Suarez is starting to figure it out and he is running closer to what Chastain has been running. Suarez finished fourth and sixth in the two races at Atlanta last year. He is a better driver in 2023, so I will bet him to win Sunday.
LONG SHOT SPECIALS:
ERIK JONES (30-1): “That Jones Boy” is no stranger to Victory Lane at the Superspeedway tracks. He won the race at Daytona in 2018. He was also pretty good at Atlanta last year. Jones finished fourth in the last race at Atlanta and his Chevy should have more speed this year. Legacy Motor Club probably knows this race is one of their best chances to win and score a spot in the playoffs. I expect the No. 43 team to be aggressive with their pit stops to give Jones a chance to win the race Sunday.
COREY LAJOIE (50-1): LaJoie nearly won the last race at Atlanta. He was leading the race with two laps to go. Chase Elliott got a run on LaJoie and moved him out of the way. LaJoie fell through the pack and finished 21st. He was also good in the spring race when he finished fifth. LaJoie said before the season started at Daytona Media Day, “I know my best chance of winning is at the Superspeedways, specifically Atlanta. We should have won that race last year and I have a good feeling we will get the job done this year. I learned a lot from my mistakes in that race.” That sounds good to me. I will bet LaJoie at 50-1 odds Sunday.
Good luck this week!
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