The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Dover this week to take on the Monster Mile. The last two races were unpredictable (Martinsville and Talladega), but that should not be the case this week. Dover is a rhythm track and some drivers have learned to conquer “Miles the Monster” better than others. I doubt we will get a long shot in Victory Lane this week, but there is one driver I like with odds outside of 50-1 to win.
Hendrick Motorsports has dominated the oval tracks this year. William Byron won at Las Vegas and Phoenix. Kyle Larson won at Richmond and Martinsville. Hendrick Motorsports also won the last two races at Dover. Chase Elliott won the race last year and Alex Bowman won in 2021. It is going to be tough to beat the Hendrick Motorsports cars this week, but we cannot bet each of them. The odds are too short, and we will be guaranteed to lose money based on my $100 betting card. I will take Kyle Larson pair him with some drivers from other teams.
DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR DOVER
* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.
** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on Kyle Larson at 5-1 odds, you will win $5.
Here are my bets for Dover based on a $100 bankroll for the race….
KYLE LARSON (5-1): Remember two years ago when Larson won 10 races? He is actually off to a better start in 2023 than he was in 2021 when the No. 5 car went to Victory Lane 10 times. Larson led 263 laps at Dover and smoked the field in 2021. He has a good chance to do it again Sunday. He won at Martinsville this year and he said, “I suck at this track.” So how is he going to perform at a track where he says, “Dover is one of my best tracks”? I will bet on Larson so I can get my money back if he dominates the race like I think he will.
DENNY HAMLIN (9-1): Hamlin said on his Actions Detrimental podcast this week, “I was not good at Dover until Kyle Busch taught our team the setup to get around this physical track. No we are fast every time we go to the track.” Hamlin led 218 laps and finished 19th after working with Rowdy in 2019. He then came back in 2020 and led 115 laps and won the race. Hamlin said he is desperate for a win. I will bet that he can get it done Sunday.
KEVIN HARVICK (11-1): Harvick at 11-1 odds at Dover? I will take it!! Harvick has finished 9th, 6th, 1st, 4th, 4th, 4th, 6th and 1st in his last eight races at Dover. Harvick is having one of his best seasons since he won nine races in 2020. Harvick led 223 laps and won the race at Dover that year. His stats at Dover are just too good to pass up at double-digit odds.
ALEX BOWMAN (16-1): I really wish I could bet on all of the Hendrick Motorsports cars, but it was tough to get them all in my $100 card, without fading Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. I want Harvick and Busch, so I will fade Chase Elliott and William Byron and pivot to Bowman. The No. 48 car won at Dover two years ago. I will bet that he can do it again Sunday.
Alex Bowman was injured in a sprint car race this week so he will be out for roughly four weeks. Josh Berry will drive the No. 48 car. I originally had Bowman listed as one of my bets. If you have not wagered yet, move that money to MARTINTRUX JR. The No. 19 car has been good at Dover and Truex is overdue for a win.
KYLE BUSCH (18-1): DO NOT WALK….. RUN TO THE CASINO OR THE APP AND PLACE A BET ON ROWDY BEFORE THESE ODDS CHANGE. Getting Rowdy at 18-1 odds on a high-banked, concrete, oval track is like steeling. Denny Hamlin even said on his podcast that Busch is the best at Dover when his car is right. Busch has three wins at Dover on his resume. He is a great bet to win back-to-back races.
LONG SHOT SPECIAL: RYAN PREECE (65-1): I thought I had a winner with Preece at Martinsville when he led 135 laps. I will bet him as my long shot special Sunday. Preece has not had much success at Dover in the Cup Series, but he never drove a car like his Stewart-Haas Racing Ford. Preece said he has been working with Kevin Harvick this year. Preece is a quick learner. If he can pick up what Harvick is putting down, Preece should have a chance to win Sunday.
Good luck Sunday!
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