Best Bets for Homestead

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The Cup Series travels to Southern Florida to race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. This is one of my favorite tracks because the racing is always some of the best we see all year. The Best Bets have cashed two weeks in a row. I will do my best to make sure we keep this win streak going at Homestead.

Homestead is a unique track. It is not a D-shaped oval or a tri-oval like the other 1.5-mile tracks. Homestead is more of a rectangular shaped track that wears out tires very quickly. The drivers much search the track for grip and run up against the wall if they want any chance to win Sunday. There are a handful of drivers who can do this and the sports books know this. The odds for the drivers who run well at Homestead suck, but they are almost a lock to win Sunday. You need to decide if you want to bet the favorites or sit this race out. I doubt we will get a driver with odds greater than 10-1 in Victory Lane Sunday.

 

DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR HOMESTEAD

* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.

** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on Kyle Larson at 3-1 odds, you will win $3.

 

KYLE LARSON (3-1): It is tough to bet a driver with odds at 3-1 in a sport that is so volatile, but it is tough to fade Larson at Homestead. Some people may think the No. 5 team will take the week off since Larson is already locked into the championship four. Larson won the first race in the Round of Eight in 2021 (Texas) and then he came back the next week and won at Kansas. I doubt they will take the week off. My friend, Patrick Perrin does all of the stats for Fox Sports NASCAR and he used to provide me stats for the races when I worked at Fox Sports. He told me this week that Kyle Larson would have won this race by 8-miles if there were no cautions in the race last year (5 ½ laps). That is crazy. I just cannot fade Larson at his best track.

 

DENNY HAMLIN (7-1): I wanted to bet Tyler Reddick, but I needed more meat on the bone then 5-1 odds, so I will pivot to Hamlin. The No. 11 team started off the playoffs red hot with a win at Bristol, second-place finish at Kansas and a third-place finish at Talladega. They cooled down a bit in the last two races, but I expect Hamlin to bounce back Sunday. Hamlin has three wins at Homestead. The No. 11 car ranks No. 3 in average green flag speed on the high-tire wear tracks (behind Kyle Larson and William Byron). The best drivers typically run well at Homestead, so I am betting the “Big Three” this week.

 

WILLIAM BYRON (8-1): Byron is the best bet to win if Kyle Larson takes the week off. I am sure Hendrick Motorsports will make sure Byron has the best car in their fleet since Larson is already locked into the championship four. Byron has the best driver rating at Homestead over the last two seasons. He also ranks No. 1 in average green flag speed on the high tire-wear tracks this season. Byron won at Homestead in 2021. I will bet he can do it again Sunday.

 

LONG SHOTS: You can also bet one of the drivers above and take a chance with some drivers with longer odds. I would bet William Byron and/or Tyler Reddick and pair them with some long shots. The drivers I like with longer odds include Ryan Blaney (18-1), Brad Keselowski (20-1) and Joey Logano (35-1).

 

Good luck Sunday!

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