The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Richmond Raceway for the Toyota Owners 400. The races on the short, flat tracks tend to be some of the best and NASCAR is trying to make it even better this week. The Cup Series will use the new short track aero package. This is the same package the Cup Series used at Phoenix. The cars will have 30% less downforce, making them tough to drive. The best bets won again last week with Tyler Reddick at 9-1 odds. We have some decisions to make this week, before we place our bets.
DraftKings Sportsbook got the odds right this week. The race Sunday should play out like the race at Phoenix, since the tracks are similar, the aero package is the same, Goodyear is bringing the same tire to the track and the teams have not had enough time to make any major adjustments. The drivers who dominated the race at Phoenix are all heavy favorites Sunday. I agree that the winner should be William Byron, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick or Christopher Bell. We need to decide if we want to bet them this week.
DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR RICHMOND
* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.
** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on William Byron at 4-1 odds, you will win $4.
Here are my bets if your bankroll for the race is $100….
There are three strategies you can use for the race at Richmond. If your goal is to simply have fun betting on the race and a small profit is enough to make you happy, then bet the favorites. William Byron and Kyle Larson combined to lead 265 of the 314 laps at Phoenix and Byron won the race. The same happened at Las Vegas. There is a good chance that these two Hendrick Motorsports drivers will dominate the race Sunday. Kevin Harvick is the only driver who could run the bottom of the track and still pass cars at Phoenix (“Harvicking”). I expect Harvick will have the same advantage at Richmond. Christopher Bell is the new top dog at Joe Gibbs Racing and Richmond is a good track for JGR. He finished second at Richmond last year and the new aero package should play right into his hands Sunday. Here is my betting strategy if you want to bet the favorites this week…
Option two involves betting one of the favorites to allow you to get a return on your money and then betting some drivers with longer odds to give you a chance to win some big money. Kyle Larson is my pick to win before we see the cars on the track. He was blazing fast at Phoenix and he has won at this track before. I will also take a chance with Kyle Busch. For some reason he loves to race at Richmond in the spring. Rowdy has six wins at Richmond (the most in the Cup Series) and five of them have come in the spring. Busch looked fast at Phoenix and his odds are not bad at 12-1. I am betting on Joey Logano more than I am betting on his car this week. The No. 22 car did not look great at Phoenix, but Paul Wolfe is a smart crew chief. He can get Logano track position through pit strategy and Logano can win the race; even if their car is not the fastest in the field. Tyler Reddick will be my third driver in option two. He won last week and he looked fast at Phoenix when he finished third. His stats at Richmond are not great, but I am sure Denny Hamlin will give Reddick some advice this week. The new aero package should allow him to have an advantage up against the wall. My last driver is Alex Bowman. Hendrick Motorsports dominated at Phoenix. William Byron and Kyle Larson led most of the laps and Josh Berry and Bowman finished in the top-10. The No. 48 car should have similar speed as the No. 5 and No. 24, but the odds with the 48 give us a chance to win more money. Bowman won at Richmond in 2021. I would not be surprised to see him in Victory Lane Sunday. Here is the besting strategy if you want to use option 2…
Option three is to wait until Saturday to place your bets. See if any of the drivers with longer odds go out and run some fast laps. The drivers I will be watching are Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Joey Loagno and Ross Chastain. Have your bets ready and pull the trigger before DraftKings adjusts the odds after qualifying. I doubt the odd on the favorites are going to drop much lower than what they already are. If William Byron, Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell dominate practice, you can still bet on them using the option one strategy. Kevin Harvick has a history of practicing poorly, qualifying outside the top-10 and then winning the race. You may get longer odds with the No. 4 car after qualifying. This is the strategy I am using this week.
Good luck Sunday!
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