The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Talladega this weekend for some Superspeedway racing. Some people hate betting on the races at Daytona and Talladega, but I love it. You need to know what you are doing though. Some “experts” recommend betting all long shots since this race is so random. Other simply bet the favorites. Both strategies are wrong. You need to spread your bets out this week but bet in a way that allows you to return a profit if any of your drivers win the race. I picked out nine drivers I like for the race Sunday (24% of the field). If any of these drivers win, I will return a nice profit. Betting one driver in this race is crazy. Betting drivers who pay less then you wagered on is also crazy. My strategy has worked well on the Superspeedways, and I expect it will again Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR TALLADEGA
* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.
** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on Ryan Blaney at 11-1 odds, you will win $11.
Here are my bets for Talladega based on a $100 bankroll for the race….
RYAN BLANEY (11-1): Blaney is no stranger to Victory Lane at Talladega. He won at this track in 2019 and then came back and won again in 2020. Blaney also finished second in the last race at Talladega. He is the favorite, so we will not win a lot of money by betting on Blaney, but I still think that 11-1 odds are enough to get the money out of my pocket 😊.
JOEY LOGANO (11-1): Logano is my pick to win Sunday. I hope I am wrong and one of the drivers I bet with longer odds win, but it is tough to bet against the No. 22 car Sunday. Logano finished second in the Daytona 500 in February. He then won the race at Atlanta using the current Superspeedway aero package. Logano has three wins at Talladega on his resume. I would not be surprised if he adds a fourth Sunday.
DENNY HAMLIN (14-1): I spend an hour every Monday listening to the Denny Hamlin Actions Detrimental podcast. He sure talks like he knows what he is doing at Talladega. Hamlin said this week, “Martinsville is not the only track were track position is important. It will be the same at Talladega. The Gen-7 car does not draft like the previous generation of cars. You cannot go from 20th to 1st in one lap. Now it takes 20 laps. You need to stay up front if you want a chance to win.” Getting a driver with five Superspeedway wins at 14-1 odds seems like a good bet to me.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (15-1): RFK Racing has shown a lot of improvement this year, but I am sure Keselowski knows that the race Sunday is his best chance to get to Victory Lane and secure his spot in the playoffs. Keselowski dominated the Daytona 500 this year, but was caught up in a wreck at the end of the race. Keselowski won at Talladega in 2021. He has six wins at this track (twice as many as any driver in the field). You could easily make a case for Keselowski to be the favorite Sunday. I will take the longer odds and bet on the No. 6 car.
ALEX BOWMAN (25-1): Some of the drivers have been that it is tough to maneuver through the pack and get to the front in the Gen-7 car on the Superspeedways. So why not bet on the driver who is the best at qualifying on these types of tracks. Bowman has started on the front row in seven of his last 10 Superspeedway races. Bowman finished fifth in the Daytona 500. I will bet that he can win Sunday.
ARIC ALMIROLA (25-1): I always bet on Almriola at the Superspeedway tracks. He said, “In order to win at these types of tracks, you have to really enjoy racing on the Superspeedways. I love it!” Almirola has three wins in the Cup Series on his resume and two of them occurred on the Superspeedways (Daytona in 2014 and Talladega in 2018). I like the Fords this week, so I will take a chance with Almirola at 25-1 odds.
ERIK JONES (35-1): Which driver has the best average finishing position in the last six races at Talladega? Of course it is Erik Jones. He finished 6th, 6th, 27th, 2nd and 5th in his last six races at Talladega. Getting him at 35-1 odds seems like stealing. Jones won at Daytona in 2018 (I know because I was there 😊), so he knows his way to Victory Lane on the Superspeedways. This is the Super Bowl for the No. 43 team. They will use every trick in the book to get track position and allow Jones a chance to win Sunday.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL (50-1): I bet McDowell at 60-1 odds to win the Daytona 500 a few years ago and it paid off. I will go back to McDowell this week and bet him to win at 50-1 odds. McDowell has a history of finishing up front on the Superspeedways. The Fords have a chassis that can push in the draft and take a push too. A lot of drivers will want to work with McDowell Sunday. He just needs a little luck like he had when he won the Daytona 500 and McDowell could be back in Victory Lane.
COREY LAJOIE (60-1): There is a new rule in NASCAR… Bet on Corey LaJoie in every Superspeedway race. His odds are always much longer than they should be and he always runs near the front. He hasn’t won yet, but he is sure fun to have a wager on in the race. LaJoie finished second at Atlanta last year and he finished fourth this year. LaJoie finshed 14th in this race last year. He is a good value at 60-1 odds Sunday.
Good luck Sunday!
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