The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Atlanta Motor Speedway Sunday. The track was repaved and reconfigured last season so now it races like a combination of the intermediate tracks and the Superspeedways. If you like high speeds and big wrecks, this is the race for you. The Ambetter Health 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 pm ET on FOX.
ATLANTA PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR changed their format for the Superspeedways last year. The Cup Series will not have any practice this week. NASCAR made this change to reduce the cost for the teams. The Cup Series set the field through qualifying Saturday, and they were allowed to practice getting on and off pit road one time. We typically do not learn much from the practice speed charts at the Superspeedways, so the elimination of practice should not be a big deal Sunday.
SUPERSPEEDWAY STATS
The only data we have to use for this race is from the two races last year at Atlanta, and the other Superspeedways races. Daytona and Talladega require the drivers to race in tighter packs and there is more room to move around at those tracks. Atlanta Motor Speedway races more like a combination of Superspeedways and the intermediate tracks. I will be focusing my picks this week on what happened at Atlanta last year and what happened at Daytona and Las Vegas this year.
Here are the average DFS Points for the two races at Atlanta last year and the races at Daytona and Las Vegas this year…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 260 laps (390 Miles). That means there are 65 points available for leading laps and 117 points available for fastest laps (182 total dominator points).
Both races at Atlanta had one dominator last year. William Byron led 111 laps and scored 7 fastest laps (30.9 dominator points). Chase Elliott led 96 laps and scored 6 fastest laps in the second race (26.7 dominator points). There were also three sub-dominators who scored 10-12 dominator points each. Most of these dominators (6 of the 8 in the two races) start in the top-13. I plan to pay up for at least one dominator so I can score the 26-30 dominator points that Byron and Elliott scored last year, but most of my lineup will focus on drivers who can score place differential points.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race today are Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, William Byron and Brad Keselowski
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are William Byron, Ross Chastain Daniel Suarez, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, Ty Gibbs, Justin Haley, AJ Allmendinger, Corey LaJoie, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR ATLANTA
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: WILLIAM BYRON ($10.9K FD $14K), KYLE BUSCH ($10.7K FD $11K), RYAN BLANEY ($10.4K FDK $13.5K), ROSS CHASTAIN ($10K / FD $12K), DENNY HAMLIN ($9.8K FD $12.5K), ALEX BOWMAN ($9.1K FD $9K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($8.9K / FD $9.5K), BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8.5 FDK $8.2K), BUBBA WALLACE ($8.3K FD $10K), DANIEL SUAREZ ($7.8K FD $6.8K), ERIK JONES ($7.5K FD $7.5K), JOSH BERRY ($7.3K FD $6.5K), RYAN PREECE ($6.8K / FD $4K), RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($6.7K FD $6.2K), AJ ALLMENDINGER ($6.3K FD $5.2K), JUSTIN HALEY ($6.1K FDK $4.2K), COREY LAJOIE ($6K FDK $5K)
PUNT PLAYS: TY GIBBS ($5.9K FDK $4.8K), HARRISON BURTON ($5.4K FD $3.5K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE BUSCH ($10,700): Busch had a great chance to win the Daytona 500 but a late caution let the race get away from him. Can he get redemption this week? I think so. Richard Childress Racing is good at bringing good handling cars to the racetrack. Busch starts 17th and he should have a good chance to win Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($10,000): Chastain finished second in both races at Atlanta last year. He was the most aggressive driver in the race and that allowed him to get to the front. Chastain will be a popular pick, but he will also be one of the best picks Sunday.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($8,900): Which driver scored the most DraftKings Points on the Superspeedways last year? If you said Truex, you would be right. The secret to his success is that the No. 19 car qualifies poorly and races well. Truex starts 29th and he will have a good chance to finish in the top-10 Sunday.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($7,800): Trackhouse Racing was the best team at Atlanta last year. Ross Chastain finished both races in the top-two and Suarez finished both races in the top-10. Suarez has been pretty consistent this year. He has finished three of the four races in the top-10 this year. He will be one of the highest scoring drivers if Suarez finishes in the top-10 Sunday.
AJ ALLMENDINGER ($6,300): Allmendinger has not been very good this year, but he was good in the Daytona 500. He started 29th and finished sixth in the Daytona 500. That was good enough for 65 DraftKings Points. Allmendinger starts 30th and he will score over 50 DraftKings Points if he can finish in the top-10 Sunday.
COREY LAJOIE ($5,200): LaJoie is not very good at many tracks, but he was a beast at Atlanta last year. He finished fifth in the first race and LaJoie came back and led 19 laps and nearly won the July race (He was leading with two laps to go). LaJoie started outside the top-30 in both of those races. He should be one of the highest place differential drivers in the field Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT SINGLE-ENTRY CONTEST
* I am going to trust my DraftKings Model this week and simply pick the best drivers according to the points prediction. Here is the best lineup according to my model…
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,900): The No. 24 car qualified 12th for this race last year and led 111 laps and was the top scoring driver in the DraftKings contests. This week Byron qualified 11th and he is better this year. I will play Byron as the top dominator in the race Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN (($10,000): My Cash and Single-Entry Tournament Contest lineup will look the same because I am not so concerned about ownership in Single-Entry contests. Chastain has been really good on the Superspeedways and all intermediate tracks over the last year. He should be a safe pick from the 18th starting position.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($8,900): It is hard to fade Truex from the 29th starting position. I know he has never won a race on a Superspeedway before, but that does not mean he has not been good. Truex has a great chance to score the most place differential points Sunday.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($7,800): Suarez finished both races at Atlanta in the top-10 last year, but he told Clair B. Lang on SiriusXM Radio, “Yes, I had two good runs last year at Atlanta, but the car was a handful. I told my crew chief I need a better handling car this year.” Suarez qualified 25th, so that tells me the No. 99 team went after a good driving car, instead of a car that qualifies well. Suarez should score a lot of place differential points at Atlanta.
JUSTIN HALEY ($6,100): I was hoping that Haley would qualify outside the top-25, because he was one of the best drivers at Atlanta last year. Haley finished seventh in the first race and 11th in the July race. Haley starts 20th and he will be a great pick if he can perform like he did last year. It will help Haley that he was able to compete in the Xfinity Series race Saturday.
COREY LAJOIE ($6,000): It is officially “Corey LaJoie Chalk Week”, but I do not care. He was really good at this track last year and LaJoie backed it up with a good run at Daytona. The No. 7 car should be a safe pick from outside the top-30 Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT MULTI-ENTRY CONTEST
*There is a lot of risk, but a lot of upside with this lineup. You HAVE to swing for the fences in the Multi-Entry Tournament Contests and that is what I am doing with this lineup. It would not surprise me if it won a lot of cash and it would not surprise me if it finished dead last.
KYLE LARSON ($11,200): There is no way Larson should be the highest priced driver this week. He even admitted that he hates Superspeedway race. Most people will fade him and use William Byron or Ross Chastain. Larson may hate this type of racing, but it does not mean he hasn’t had some good finishes. I will take a chance with a low owned Larson Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($9,100): Bowman has been the most consistent driver in the Cup Series this season. He has finished every race in the top-10 and Bowman leads the Cup Series in average finishing position. I doubt he will be highly owned from the 15th starting position. Bowman will be a good pick if he can extend his top-10 streak Sunday.
BUBBA WALLACE ($8,300): Wallace has had a lot of success on the Superspeedways, and he is typically one of the highest owned drivers in these races. I have not heard anyone talking up Wallace this week. That is because he was not great at this track last year. That is a small sample size. I will take a chance with a low owned Wallace at a Superspeedway track.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($7,900): Suarez will be the highest owned driver in this lineup. I will eat the chalk with Suarez. He has been too consistent this year and he was too good at Atlanta last year to fade this week.
ERIK JONES ($7,500): Jones is no stranger to Victory Lane at a Superspeedway. He won at Daytona before. I would not be surprised if he won Sunday. Jones finished fourth in this race last year. The No. 43 car starts 28th because Jones got into the dirty part of the track during qualifying. Jones should be one of the top place differential drivers at Atlanta.
JUSTIN HALEY ($6,100): Haley was going to be the “super chalk pick” before qualifying. Haley starts 20th Sunday. I think that will take some of the ownership off of him. I think most people will play some of the drivers who start further back in the pack. I still like Haley and he is a good pick for a top-10 finish Sunday.
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
* Do not worry about leaving salary on the table this week.
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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