The 2024 NASCAR Cup Season has their first winner (William Byron in the Daytona 500) and now they are ready to take their show to Atlanta Motor Speedway. The cars will once again be trimmed out in their Superspeedway aero-packages. That means the cars will be limited to 510 HP and will have a 7” spoiler for down-force. The draft will come into play and the racing will be tight. The three manufactures were pretty close in speed at Daytona, so I expect another exciting race at Atlanta. The Ambetter Health 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
ATLANTA PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
NASCAR no longer has practice on the Superspeedway tracks (other than the first race at Daytona). The Cup Series cars went through inspection and then lined up for single-lap qualifying Saturday to set the field for the Ambetter Health 400. We will have to rely on the data from the previous races at Atlanta and the race last week at Daytona for the picks Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS POINTS ON ATLANTA (2022 – 2023)
There have been four races on the resurfaced Atlanta Motor Speedway in the Cup Series. We can learn a lot by looking at the drivers who ran well in those races. Here is the average DraftKings Points in the four Cup Series races at Atlanta…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The Ambetter Health 400 is scheduled for 260 laps (400 miles). That means there are 65 DK Points available for leading laps and 117 DK Points available for fastest laps (182 total dominator points). This race is not like the race at Daytona where the dominator points get spread throughout the field. William Byron led 111 laps and scored seven fastest laps in March of 2022 (30.9 dominator points and 87.9 total points). Chase Elliott led 96 laps and scored six fastest laps in July of 2022 (26.7 dominator points and 71.7 total points). Joey Logano led 140 laps and scored nine fastest laps in this race last year (39.05 dominator points and 84 total points). The main dominator has averages 75.5 DK Points in the four races in the new surface at Atlanta. We need to pay up for the driver who we think can lead the most laps and pair him with five drivers who can score place differential points and finish in the top-10.
The drivers with the best chance to score dominator points today includes Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Michael McDowell
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points include Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs, Daniel Suarez, Erik Jones, Corey LaJoie and John H. Nemechek
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): Byron won the Daytona 500 last week. Could he be the first driver since Matt Kenseth in 2009 to start the season with back-to-back wins? I think so. Byron won two of the four Superspeedway races at Atlanta. He won from the 12th position in 2022. He should have a good chance to go to Victory Lane from the 11th starting position Sunday.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,800): I was expecting a lot more from Elliott than an 28th qualifying position. This is his home track and this race means a lot to Elliott. I am sure the team dialed in too much handling and not enough speed in the car. That may not be a bad thing. The No. 9 car should have no problem getting into the top-15. Elliott will need some more speed to get into the top-10. Alan Gustafson should be able to get it for Elliott.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($9,100): Bell had one of the fastest cars in this race last year. He pushed Joey Logano to the win and finished third. The Toyota’s are built to race well and not qualify up front. That is good news for your DFS lineup. Bell should race his way through the field and have a good chance to finish inside the top-five Sunday.
ERIK JONES ($8,000): Jones was one of my sleeper picks this week, but his car looked evil in qualifying. Jones had to abort his lap to prevent from crashing. Now he will start last. The No. 43 team will fix the car because there really is no penalty since he is already starting last. Jones finished 11th, 4th and 8th in his last three races at Atlanta. He will be one of the best picks in the field if he has a race like that again Sunday.
COREY LAJOIE ($6,800): LaJoie starts 32nd so his car is horrible right? I doubt it. LaJoie started 29th and finished 4th last week in the Daytona 500 last week. He started 33rd and finished 5th at Atlanta in 2022 and he started 31st and finished 4th at Atlanta last year. He is the best in the field at scoring place differential points on the Superspeedways.
ZANE SMITH ($5,700): I thought about playing John H. Nemechek from the back but both Legacy Motor Club cars were horrible in qualifying. I already have Erik Jones in my lineup, so I will use Zane Smith so I do not have too much invested into the Legacy Motor Club cars. Smith finished 13th in the Daytona 500 last week. Smith also finished three of his four Truck Series races at Atlanta in the top-six.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
JOEY LOGANO ($10,300): Logano completely dominated this race last year. He won the pole, led 140 laps, won Stage 1, finished second in Stage 2 and went to Victory Lane. He also looked great last week at Daytona when he won the pole and was the only driver to have an average running position in the top-10. Logano should have a great chance to lead the most laps and be one of the best picks in DraftKings Contests Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): I played Byron in my Cash Contest lineup and I will have him in my Tournament Contest lineup too. Pairing Byron with Joey Logano gives me the two drivers who have led the most laps in the Gen-7 car at Atlanta. Byron should be a good play from the 11th starting position.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,600): Chastain in one of my favorite plays Sunday. The model predicts that Chastain will score the most points. He finished second in both races in the Gen-7 car at Atlanta in 2022. Chastain said his team built the car to handle well like they had in 2022. He nearly won the Daytona 500 last week. Chastain should finish up front Sunday too.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,200): Do we trust the racing stats or the finishing stats this week. Bowman has been one of the best drivers at Atlanta in the Gen-7 car, but he only has one finish in the top-10. Bowman does have the eighth-best driver rating in the four races. He just finished second in the Daytona 500. I will play Bowman Sunday and hope he can finish in the top-five again.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($7,300): I will pair Suarez with his teammate Ross Chastain. Suarez starts right behind Chastain. I expect the Trackhouse Racing cars to work together to get to the front. Atlanta is the best track for Suarez. He finished 2nd, 29th, 6th and 4th in his four races using the Gen-7 car at Atlanta. He knows how to finish in the top-10 at this track.
JUSTIN HALEY ($5,300): We all know that Haley is good at racing on the Superspeedway tracks, but I expect some people will be afraid to use Haley since he is racing in a Rick Ware Racing car. J.J. Yeley was able to finish 7th in the Rick Ware Racing car at Atlanta last year. Haley finished 11th, 8th, 22nd and 7th in his four races in the Gen-7 car at Atlanta. I will take a chance with Haley Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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