DFS NASCAR Picks for Martinsville

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The NASCAR Cup Series has made it to the last race in the Round of Eight. That means there are only two races left in the season. The eight drivers still competing for the championship include William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney. Kyle Larson (Las Vegas) and Christopher Bell (Homestead) advanced to the championship four with their wins in the Round of Eight. There are to two tickets left to be punched for the championship race. We will not see another “Hail Melon” at Martinsville, but it should still be entertaining in the final laps. The Xfinity 500 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.

 

MARTINSVILLE PRACTICE SPEEDS

The Cup Series teams had 20 minutes to shake down their cars for the race Sunday. Martinsville is a .526-mile, short, flat track. Most of the drivers had no problems making long runs in practice. It is tough to see which drivers truly had the fastest cars since traffic can skew a driver’s lap times at Martinsville. The best way to see which driver were fast is to see who is at the top of the single-lap speed chart, the 10-lap average speed chart and qualifies up front. The drivers who check all of these boxes are the drivers we will want in our lineup Sunday.

Here are the lap times from the practice Saturday’s practice at Martinsville…

 

 

STATS FOR THE RACE AT MARTINSVILLE

Martinsville is a unique track. It is a .526-mile paperclip-shaped, flat track. The drivers need a car that can roll the corners and the drivers must be able to out-brake the completion getting into the corners. There really is an art to driving this track and some drivers do it better than others.

I used the stats from the race at Martinsville in April. A lot has happened since that race, but the drivers who were good at Martinsville in the spring, should be good Sunday. I also used the data from the three races at Martinsville in the Gen-7 car and combined it with the data from the short, flat track races in 2023 (Richmond and New Hampshire). This should give us an idea of which drivers will be able to run up front Sunday.

Here are the average DraftKings Points from the last three races at Martinsville and the short, flat tracks this season…

 

 

DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY

There are 500 laps in the race Sunday. That means there are 125 points available for leading laps and 225 points available for fastest laps. We need to score as many of these 350 dominator points as possible.

The trend at Martinsville is for one driver to lead roughly 200 laps and score 90 fastest laps (90.5 dominator points). A second driver leads roughly 150 laps and scores 74 fastest laps (70 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 70 laps and scores 54 fastest laps (41.8 dominator points). It is a good idea to pay up for the drivers you think can lead the most laps so you can score the 202.3 dominator points that these drivers are projected to score.

The drivers with the best chance to lead laps and score dominator points include Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher

The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points includes Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Daniel Suarez, Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon and Corey Lajoie

 

 

DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats) 

 Finish = Finishing Points                PD = Position Differential              Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led

* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.

 

 

FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats) 

 

 

CORE DRIVERS FOR MARTINSVILLE

TOP-TIER DRIVERSDENNY HAMLIN (DK $11.5K / FD $14K), WILLIAM BYRON (DK $11.2K / FD $13K), KYLE LARSON  (DK $11K / FD $13.5K), MARTIN TRUEX JR. (DK $10.7K / FD $12.5K),  RYAN BLANEY (DK $10.4K / FD $12K), CHRISTOPHER BELL (DK $10.1K / FD $10.5K), JOEY LOGANO (DK $9.8K / FDK $9K),  KYLE BUSCH (DK $9K / FD $9.5K)

VALUE-TIER DRIVERSCHASE ELLIOTT (DK $8.8K / FD $11K),  KEVIN HARVICK (DK $8.3K / FD $10K),  BUBBA WALLACE (DK $7.7K / FD $6.5K), AARIC ALMIROLA (DK $7.4K / FD $8K), CHASE BRISCOE (DK $7.3K / FD $7.5K), RYAN PREECE (DK $7.1K / FD $7.2K), DANIEL SUAREZ  (DK $6.9K / FD $6.2K),  AUSTIN DILLON (DK $6.4K / FD $5.8K)

PUNT PLAYS: TODD GILLILAND (DK $5.9K / FD $5.2K), AUSTIN CINDRIC (DK $5.7K / FD $6K),  HARRISON BURTON  (DK $5.5K / FD $3.5K), COREY LAJOIE  (DK $5.4K / FD $3K), RYAN NEWMAN (DK $5.2K / FD $2.5K), 

 

 

DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

 

DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST

 

 

 

FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP

 

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