The year of unpredictability continues this week at Texas Motor Speedway. There is no doubt the Gen-7 car and its crappy parts have changed racing in 2022. There are 30 full-time teams with one driver and 19 of them have been to Victory Lane this year. All of the playoff races were won by non-playoff drivers (that has never happened before) and the race last week at Bristol was dominated by Chris Buescher (100-1 odds to win) and Brad Keselowski (100-1). I asked a friend who manages a sportsbook in Las Vegas if two 100-1 odd drivers ever led the most laps before in a race. He looked and could not find anything. The chaos will continue Sunday in one of the longest races of the season. The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 can be seen Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.
PRACTICE SPEEDS AT TEXAS
The Cup Series had its regular schedule this week. The teams had 20 minutes of practice to dial in their cars and then they qualified for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas. Most of the teams made some long runs in practice so we need to look at the 10-lap average speed for our picks Sunday. The tires do not wear out as much at Texas as other 1.5-mile tracks but it will be important for the drivers to maintain their speed over a long run.
Here are the lap times from the practice Saturday’s at Texas…
AVERAGE DFS POINTS ON 1.5 MILE TRACKS
The Gen-7 car has made the races tough to handicap but we can gain an edge by looking at the drivers data on different types of tracks. The Toyota’s seems to have figured out their race package on the larger intermediate tracks while other teams have struggled. I looked at the practice speeds first for the picks and then compared them to the drivers who have had success this year on the 1.5-mile tracks. If a driver ranks highly on both charts, he will be in my lineups.
Here are the average DFS points on the 1.5-mile tracks…
DFS STRATEGY FOR TEXAS
Everything is bigger in Texas and that includes the length of the race. I am not sure why this race needs to be 500 miles, but it is. That means there are an extra 67 laps in the race over a normal 400 mile race on an intermediate tracks. This will make it more important to have the top dominators in our lineups Sunday.
The race at Texas is scheduled for 334 laps. That means there are 83.5 points available for leading laps and 150.3 points available for fastest laps (233.8 dominator points). There are 33.4 dominator points available in FanDuel Contests.
The trend at Texas is for one driver to lead 200 laps and score 90 fastest laps (60.5 dominator points). A second driver typically leads 100 laps and scores 60 fastest laps (37 fastest laps. There are two drivers who typically score 10 – 12 dominator points. We must pay up for the drivers who we think can lead the most laps Sunday. It will be difficult to win if you do not have the top dominator in your lineup.
The drivers I expect to lead the most laps and be the top dominators in the race include: William Byron, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (PREDICTIONS BASED ON STATS)
CORE DRIVERS FOR TEXAS
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: Denny Hamlin ($10,800), Kyle Larson ($10,700), Chase Elliott ($10,500), Christopher Bell ($10,300), Kyle Busch ($10,000), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800), Ryan Blaney ($9,600), Tyler Reddick ($9,400), Ross Chastain ($9,200), William Byron ($9,100)
VALUE DRIVERS: Joey Logano ($8,900), Kevin Harvick ($8,700), Bubba Wallace ($8,600), Alex Bowman ($8,400), Chase Briscoe ($7,500), Brad Keselowski ($6,800), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,600), Cole Custer ($6,200)
PUNT PLAYS: Noah Gragson ($5,900), Justin Haley ($5,700), Ty Dillon ($5,400), Corey LaJoie ($5,200), Todd Gilliland ($5,000)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR
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