DFS NASCAR Picks for Texas

Facebooktwitter

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will compete at a Texas Motor Speedway this week in the O’Reilly’s Auto Parts 500. The cars will be back to 550 HP, 2” splitters, 8” spoilers and aero ducts to promote drafting. The same setup was used at Las Vegas and Auto Club. The race should be close to what we saw at those two tracks. The race is scheduled Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on Fox.

Qualifying: NASCAR turned their sport into a complete joke. The way they conduct qualifying is an embarrassment. They made rules and then refused to enforce them. Now, some of the best cars will start deep in the field while some of the worst are rewarded for NASCAR’s joke of a qualifying system. I hated single car qualifying but at least the fastest cars were rewarded with starting positions up front and a quality pit stall. It is also ruining the Fantasy NASCAR game.

 

DraftKings Strategy

Everything is bigger in Texas and that includes the races. The O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 is 100 miles longer than a typical race on a 1.5-mile track. That means there will be 334 laps instead of the typical 267 laps on most intermediate tracks. There will be 50 additional dominators points available and that will increase the value of the drivers who lead laps Sunday.

The O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 will have 83.5 points available for leading laps and 167 points available for fastest laps (250.5 total dominator points). The trend at Texas is to have one main dominator who leads around 130 laps, another dominator who leads 80 laps and two sub-dominators who leads 56 and 40 laps each. Clean air is really important at this track. The drivers who lead the race typically scored 80% of the fastest laps, so the dominators score a lot of points in this race. We will need at least two dominators in our lineup this week.

The drivers I expect to be the top dominators this week are: Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney

The drivers I expect to be the best cheap drivers (Under $8K) for the race Sunday include: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Matt DiBenedetto, Ryan Preece, David Ragan and Parker Klingerman

 

Tournament Strategy: The cream will rise to the top so I expect the drivers who ran well at Las Vegas to get to the front and dominate this race. Practice was crazy and it looked more like a race then with all of the drafting. I usually put a lot into practice but the weather conditions will be a lot different tomorrow and so will the track conditions. Track position is important but this race is 500 miles in length and usually has a lot of cautions. The will select a lot of drivers who I think can get to the front and lead some laps.

 

Cash Strategy: I am constructing my Cash Contest lineups like a Superspeedway. I will be selecting the drivers from the middle of the field and back to score place differential points. These drivers have the fast cars and they should make quick work of the lower funded cars who qualified ahead of them.

 

DraftKings Points Prediction Based on Stats  

Driver

Price % Owned Fin. Pts PD Pts Laps Led Fastest Lap

Total

1. Brad Keselowski

$11,900

28% 46 11 32.5 35

124.5

2. Kyle Busch

$12,200

40% 42 14 20 25

101

3. Kevin Harvick

$10,700

45% 41 20 0.5 16

77.5

4. Joey Logano

$11,600

37% 40 4 10 13

67

7. Kurt Busch

$9,500

42% 37 23 7

67

6. Kyle Larson

$9,200

24% 38 16 1.5 9

64.5

5. Ryan Blaney

$10,200

24% 39 7 4.5 10

60.5

8. Martin Truex Jr.

$11,300

31% 36 12 0.25 6

54.25

11. Aric Almirola

$8,400

26% 33 10 3

46

10. Erik Jones

$8,200

23% 34 1 4

39

16. Clint Bowyer

$8,900

31% 28 9 1.5

38.5

9. Denny Hamlin

$9,800

20% 35 -3 0.25 5

37.25

13. Jimmie Johnson

$8,000

24% 31 -12 14 2

35

14. Ricky Stenhouse

$7,600

16% 30 3 1.5

34.5

20. Alex Bowman

$7,100

24% 23 4 0.5

27.5

12. Chase Elliott

$8,600

22% 32 -9 2

25

17. Paul Menard

$6,600

12% 27 -3 1

25

15. Daniel Suarez

$7,500

17% 29 -11 1.5

19.5

25. Matt DiBenedetto

$6,300

13% 18 1

19

22. Chris Buescher

$6,400

19% 21 -3

18

26. Ryan Preece

$6,100

11% 17 1

18

18. Daniel Hemric

$6,800

12% 25 -11 1

15

23. Ryan Newman

$6,900

9% 20 -5

15

28. David Ragan

$6,000

13% 15 0

15

30. Corey LaJoie

$5,300

8% 13 1

14

32. Ross Chastain

$5,600

7% 11 3

14

19. Austin Dillon

$7,800

13% 24 -14 0.5

10.5

31. Matt Tifft

$5,400

9% 12 -2

10

33. Parker Klingerman

$5,100

7% 10 0

10

35. Bayley Currey

$5,000

4% 8 1

9

34. Landon Cassill

$5,200

7% 9 -2

7

37. Reed Sorenson

$4,900

3% 6 0

6

36. B.J. McLeod

$4,800

3% 7 -2

5

38. Garrett Smithley

$4,600

2% 5 0

5

24. Ty Dillon

$5,800

13% 19 -15

4

39. Timmy Hill

$4,700

3% 4 0

4

21. William Byron

$7,300

7% 22 -19 0.5

3.5

29. Michael McDowell

$5,700

9% 14 -14

0

27. Darrell Wallace Jr.

$5,500

8% 16 -17

-1

Finish = Finishing Points                 PD = Position Differential              Fastest = Fastest Laps

% Owned = Projected DK Ownership         Led = Laps Led

 

FanDuel Strategy

FanDuel has a unique scoring system. Drivers earn .1 point per lap led (or 1 point per 10 laps led) and .1 point per lap completed (or 1 point per 10 laps completed). The game also awards .5 points for place differential (instead of 1 point in DraftKings). This will change our strategy for the race.

The race Sunday has 334 laps. That means there are 33.4 bonus points available for completing all of the laps and 33.4 for leading laps. I will be focusing on drivers who can score place differential points and finish in the top 12. I found last year that all of my Cash Contest and Single-Entry Contest lineups cashed when I was able to have 5/5 drivers finish in the top 12 and score some place differential points. I like to take a chance with a cheap driver in my Multi-Entry Tournament lineups so I can spend up for the top drivers in the field.

 

Top Tournament DriversKyle Busch (35%), Joey Logano (30%), Brad Keselowski (40%), Kevin Harvick (40%), Martin Truex Jr. (30%), Aric Almirola (40%), Clint Bowyer (30%), Kurt Busch (50%),  Ryan Blaney (25%),  Denny Hamlin (10%),  Chase Elliott (10%),  Erik Jones (20%), Kyle Larson (40%), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (30%), Alex Bowman (20%), Chris Buescher (30%), Matt DiBenedetto (30%),  Ryan Preece (20%),  David Ragan (20%), Parker Klingerman (30%), Corey LaJoie (10%)

 

Top Cash DriversKyle Busch (40%), Joey Logano (20%), Brad Keselowski (35%), Kevin Harvick (60%), Martin Truex Jr. (40%), Aric Almirola (40%), Kurt Busch (60%), Clint Bowyer (30%), Kyle Larson (40%), Ryan Blaney (20%), Alex Bowman (40%), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (10%), Chris Buescher (20%), David Ragan (10%), Parker Klingerman (20%)

(Cash Contests are the 50/50 and Double-up Contests) (*% is how much I will be playing the driver in my lineups)

 

 

#1 DraftKings Cash Lineup

Kevin Harvick $10,700 (Starts 23rd)

Kyle Larson $9,200 (Starts 22nd)

Kurt Busch $9,500 (Starts 30th)

Aric Almirola $8,400 (Starts 21st)

Alex Bowman $7,100 (Starts 24th)

Parker Klingerman $5,100 (Starts 33rd)

 

#2 DraftKings Cash Lineup

Kevin Harvick $10,700 (Starts 23rd)

Kyle Larson $9,200 (Starts 22nd)

Erik Jones $8,200 (Starts 11th)

Aric Almirola $8,400 (Starts 21st)

Alex Bowman $7,100 (Starts 24th)

Chris Buescher $6,400 (Starts 19th)

 

#3 DraftKings Cash Lineup

Kyle Busch $12,200 (Starts 16th)

Kurt Busch $9,500 (Starts 30th)

Aric Almirola $8,400 (Starts 21st)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,600 (Starts 17th)

Alex Bowman $7,100 (Starts 24th)

Parker Klingerman $5,100 (Starts 33rd)

 

#1 DraftKings Tournament Lineup (Single-Entry Lineup)

Kevin Harvick $10,700 (Starts 23rd)

Kyle Larson $9,200 (Starts 22nd)

Ryan Blaney $10,200 (Starts 13th)

Aric Almirola $8,400 (Starts 21st)

Chris Buescher $6,400 (Starts 19th)

Parker Klingerman $5,100 (Starts 33rd)

 

#2 DraftKings Tournament Lineup

Kyle Busch $12,200 (Starts 16th)

Kurt Busch $9,500 (Starts 30th)

Chase Elliott $8,600 (Starts 3rd)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,600 (Starts 17th)

Chris Buescher $6,400 (Starts 19th)

Matt Tifft $5,400 (Starts 29th)

 

#3 DraftKings Tournament Lineup (Multi-Entry

Brad Keselowski $11,900 (Starts 12th)

Kyle Larson $9,200 (Starts 22nd)

Aric Almirola $8,400 (Starts 21st)

Jimmie Johnson $8,000 (Starts Pole)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7,600 (Starts 17th)

Baylay Currey $4,800 (Starts 36th)

 

FanDuel Cash Lineup

Kyle Larson $12,000 (Starts 22nd)

Kurt Busch $11,000 (Starts 30th)

Ryan Blaney $12,500 (Starts 13th)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $8,400 (Starts 17th)

Matt DiBenedetto $6,000 (Starts 26th)

 

FanDuel Tournament Lineup

Joey Logano $13,500 (Starts 8th)

Kurt Busch $11,000 (Starts 30th)

Aric Almirola $10,500 (Starts 21st)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $8,400 (Starts 17th)

Chris Buescher $6,500 (Starts 19th)

 

*Stats from Driveraverages.com , NASCAR Media and Racing-Reference.Info

** Photos from NASCAR Media

 

If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR