The NASCAR Cup Series will compete at Phoenix Raceway Sunday. This is already the fourth race of the season, and the teams are starting to show their hands. We have a good idea of the speeds on the Superspeedways (Daytona), the large intermediate tracks (Auto Club) and the 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas). Now we will get to see which teams have the speed on the one-mile, short, flat tracks (Phoenix). It will be fun to see how it all plays out. The United Rentals 500(k) can be seen Sunday at 3:30 pm ET on FOX.
PHOENIX PRACTICE SPEEDS
NASCAR allowed the teams to practice for 50-minutes Friday because they have a new aero package that the teams have not been able to work with this year. I am posting my picks based mostly off of the drivers who had speed in practice. I am not going to completely ignore the past stats at Phoenix, but if a driver has good track history and he ran fast laps in practice, he is in my lineup this week.
Here are the lap times from the practice session Friday at Phoenix….
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 312 laps (312 Miles). That means there are 78 points available for leading laps and 140.4 points available for fastest laps (218.4 total dominator points). The trend in this race is to have two main dominators in the race. The top dominator leads roughly 180 laps and scores 54 fastest laps (69.3 dominator points). The second main dominate leads roughly 110 laps and scores 40 fastest laps (45.5 dominator points). We will not cash any lineups without the top dominator on our teams. We will have a chance to win money if we get both dominators in our lineups.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race today are Kyle Larson, William Byron, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Austin Dillon, Aric Almirola, Chris Buescher, Corey LaJoie, Harrison Burton and Zane Smith
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR PHOENIX
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: KYLE LARSON ($11.1K / FD $13K), JOEY LOGANO ($10.8K FD $14K), KYLE BUSCH ($10.6K FD $12.5K), RYAN BLANEY ($10.3 FDK $13.5K), ROSS CHASTAIN ($10K FD $11K), WILLIAM BYRON ($9.8K / FD $9.5K), DENNY HAMLIN ($9.6K FD $10.5K), TYLER REDDICK ($9.4K FD $8.2K), KEVIN HARVICK ($9K FD $11.5K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: CHIRSTOPHER BELL ($8.8K / FD $10K), ALEX BOWMAN ($8.6K FD $8.5K), DANIEL SUAREZ ($8.5 FDK $8K), CHASE BRISCOE ($8.4K FD $9K), BUBBA WALLACE ($8.2K / FD $7.2K), AUSTIN DILLON ($7.5K FD $5.5K), AUSTIN CINDRIC ($7.1K FD $6.8K), ARIC ALMIROLA ($6.9K FD $7.5K), CHRIS BUESCHER ($6.6K FD $5.8K), JUSTIN HALEY ($6.4K FD $4.2K), AJ ALLMENDINGER ($6.2 FDK $5.2K)
PUNT PLAYS: RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($5.8K FDK $4K), HARRISON BURTON ($5.7K FDK $3K), COREY LAJOIE ($5.6K / FD $5K) ZANE SMITH ($5.2K FD $4.8K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON ($11,100): It will be a good idea to pay up for the No. 5 car Sunday. Larson posted the fastest speed in practice and was fastest on every long run speed chart. It looks like the No. 5 team hit on the setup this weekend. It is risky to play the driver who starts on the pole in Cash Contests, but the No. 5 car has the speed to completely dominate this race.
TYLER REDDICK ($9,400): I wanted to use Joey Logano in this spot, but I could not make his price work. I will pivot to Reddick. He finished third in this race last year. Can he do it again with his new team? Reddick had the fourth-fastest car on the long-runs and it ever was faster than Larson after 30 laps. I will take a chance with the No. 45 car at Phoenix.
KEVIN HARVICK ($9,000): It is going to be tough to fade the No. 4 car Sunday. Harvick is known as the “King of Phoenix” because he has dominated the races at this track for over a decade. Harvick has finished his last 19 races at Phoenix in the top-10. He did it in many different area packages. Harvick qualified 15th and he as close as it gets in NASCAR to a lock for a top-10 finish and 45 DK Points.
CHASE BRISCOE ($8,400): Can Briscoe find the speed he had at Phoenix last year? Briscoe won this race last year and he finished fourth in the race last November. The No. 14 team has struggled this season, but a trip to the desert should jumpstart their team. Briscoe posted the fifth-fastest speed in practice. Briscoe should score a lot of place differential points from the 24th starting position.
ARIC ALMIROLA ($6,900): It is tough to trust any driver from Stewart-Haas Racing other than Kevin Harvick right now, but we cannot ignore the speed the place differential points that the No. 10 car can score Sunday. Almirola posted the 10th-fastest speed in practice. He got loose in qualifying and now Almirola will start 31st. He should easily score 12-14 place differential points 38-40 DK Points.
ZANE SMITH ($5,200): Smith will be my “punt play” in my Cash Contest lineup. I doubt many people will play Smith, but he should be a safe pick from the 34th starting position. He qualified 32nd and finished 17th at Gateway last year in the Cup Series race. Phoenix is similar to Gateway, so Smith will be an awesome pick if he can finish anywhere near the top-20.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT SINGLE-ENTRY CONTEST
Kyle Larson and William Byron dominated the race last week. I will play the two Hendrick Motorsports cars and hope they can do it again. They had the two fastest cars in practice. I love the long-run speed that the No. 45 car has, so Tyler Reddick gets the spot in the lineup. Christopher Bell dominated the test at Phoenix. His car was not fast in practice, but it looks like Joe Gibbs Racing found some speed for qualifying. These cars are going to slide around, so Bell should be good Sunday. Harrison Burton ran a lot of laps in practice, so he must be happy with his car. He posted top-15 speed on all of the speed charts. Zane Smith is my “punt play”.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT MULTI-ENTRY CONTEST
You are going to need to be contrarian if you are playing a large tournament contest. Kyle Larson has blazing fast speed, but all it takes is an electrical issue (like he had at Auto Club) and you can climb to the top of the contest quickly if you fade him. That will be the strategy in this lineup. I will play Ryan Blaney and William Byron as my top dominators. Tyler Reddick had a very fast car on the long run. He should get to the front if the caution flags are limited Sunday. Team Penske is always fast at Phoenix, and I doubt Austin Cindric will have a lot of ownership. He finished 11th at Phoenix last November. I will take a chance with the No. 2 car this week. I will eat the chalk with Aric Almirola. The upside is just too good to pass up. AJ Allmendinger may get overlooked too. He finished 12th at Phoenix last November. He will score 41 DK Points if he can finish 12th again.
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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