DFS PGA Picks for Mexico Open  

Facebooktwitter

The PGA Tour will travel across the border for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. The tournament debuted on the PGA Tour schedule in 2022. The field for the first two Mexico Opens consisted of Jon Rahm and a bunch of golfers ranked outside the top-50 of the World Golf Rankings. Rahm took his talents to the LIV Tour, so this week it is Tony Finau and a bunch of golfers who have not been consistent on the PGA Tour. This is not “must-see TV” this week.

 

COURSE BREAKDOWN

The tournament will be played at the Greg Norman Signature course at Vidanta Vallarta Resort. (Yes, Mr. LIV Golf, Greg Norman) This is a new course that just opened in 2016. It is located between the Ameca River and the Sierra Madre Mountains. The course plays as a par-73 for members, but two of the par-5s have been converted to par-4s to make the course a par-71 for the field this week. The course will play 7,485 yards in length and the grass in the fairways and greens will be paspalum (not a type of grass the PGA Tour usually sees on its schedule). This grass is “sticky” and it usually does not allow a lot of roll-out on the golfer’s drives.

The bombers dominated this event last year and I expect the same this week. The par 3’s are long and so are the par 5’s. 35% of the approach shots averaged over 200-yards last year. That is double the PGA Tour average. I want golfers who bomb it off the tee, are good with their long irons, rank high in Birdie or Better % and rank highly in the comparable courses. The top-10 golfers when you sort by approach shots 200+ yards and distance off-the-tee includes 1. Keith Mitchell, 2. Tony Finau, 3. Callum Tarren, 4. Carson Young, 5. SH Kim, 6. Davis Thompson, 7. Charlie Hauffman, 8. Matt Wallace, 9. J.J. Spaun, 10. Jhonattan Vegas

 

KEY STATS FOR THE MEXICO OPEN

– Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee

– Stroke Gained Approach 200+ Yards

– Distance Off-the-Tee

– Birdie or Better %

 

Here is the recent form and course history for each golfer this week: History and Form

 

TOP 30 GOLFER RANKINGS

 

CORE GOLFERS FOR MEXICO OPEN

 

 

MEXICO OPEN STRATEGY

The pricing for DraftKings is pretty interesting this week. They have Tony Finau priced at $12K and they have 50 golfers priced under $5K. That is going to cause a lot of people to build “stars and scrubs” lineups this week. Is that the best strategy for the Mexico Open? I will get into that below….

Tony Finau is going to be the highest owned golfer in Cash Contests. I agree that he is an excellent play this week, but is he $1K or $2K better than everyone else? I do not think so. I will play Finau on FanDuel and fade him on DraftKings.

I will build my Cash Contest lineups around Nicolai Hojgaard and Stephan Jaegar. They have been the two best golfers in the field at making cuts and they have good course history. I will pair these two golfers, with four players who are also in good form with some decent course history.

I know it is messing with fire to fade a player who won the Mexico Open last year and finished second in 2022, but that is what I am going to do. I am almost certain his ownership will be at 40% or higher this week. Tony Finau has to win to return value. I will fade him and build more balanced lineups. I will let the rest of the field go fishing in the deep $5K waters to find golfers to pair with the big fish (Tony Finau).

 

 

DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST

NICOLAI HOJGAARD ($10,700): Is Hojgaard $1,300 worse than Tony Finau? I would argue that Hojgaard is in better form than Finau right now. I know he does not have the course history that Finau has, but he finished 33rd in his first trip to the Mexico Open. I will let everyone else spend up on Finau and I will take a chance with a golfer who has made 13 cuts in a row, including two top-10 finishes in his last four tournaments.  

STEPHAN JAEGER ($9,800): Jaeger is a cut making machine. He has made 11 cuts in a row, dating back to last year. That includes a third-place finish a few weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open. Jaeger ranks No. 6 in the key stats this week and his course history is good. He finished 15th and 18th in the two Mexico Opens played at Vidanta.

MAVERICK MCNEALY ($8,100): It looks like McNealy is over his injury and he is back to playing good golf. McNealy finished sixth in his last tournament (Waste Management Phoenix Open) and he has made three cuts in a row. He also made the cut in his only trip to the Mexico Open last year. I like his chances of finishing in the top-20 this week.

S-H KIM ($7,900): S-H Kim checks all of the boxes this week. He ranks No. 9 in the key stats. Kim has decent course history (He finished 24th in his only trip to the Mexico Open), and he has good form (Kim has made his last three cuts and five out of six in 2024). I expect Kim to be a solid golfer who will score well and finish in the top-20 in Mexico.

SAM STEVENS ($7,100): Stevens is one of my favorite plays this week. He has not missed a cut in 2024 and he has two top-10 finishes at Videnta on the Korn Ferry Tour. He ranks 30th in the key stats, which is not too bad for his price. If he can play this course like he did on the Korn Ferry Tour, he should finish in the top-25 Sunday.

JUSTIN LOWER ($6,100): Lower is my favorite “punt play” this week. He has not missed a cut in 2024. He ranks No. 11 in the field in SG Tee-to-Green and No. 122 in SG Putting. These greens are pretty easy this week, so if he can putt, Lower can score well. He has played the Mexico Open once and Lower made the cut. All I need him to do this week is make the cut again.

 

 

DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP

THOMAS DETRY ($10,100): Most of the golfers in the field say distance off-the-tee is important at the Mexico Open. Why not take a chance with the “Belgium Bomber.” Detry ranks No. 4 in the field in Distance Off-the-Tee and No. 5 overall in the key stats. His form is good, with a 20th-place finish at the Farmers and a fourth-place finish at Pebble Beach. I like Detry’s chances of winning Sunday.  

TAYLOR PENDRITH ($9,600): Pendrith is a good golfer to take a chance with for your Tournament Contests, but not so good for Cash Contest lineups. He finished 8th, MC, 10th, MC and 9th this year on the PGA Tour. He is either going to finish in the top-10 or miss the cut. He made the cut at the Mexico Open with his 30th-place finish last year. I will take a chance with Pendrith and hop he adds another top-10 finish to his 2024 resume.

JAKE KNAPP ($8,700): I was listening to SiriusXM Golf Channel Monday morning as I was researching this tournament. Jason Sobel who covers golf for the PGA Tour and the Action Network said, “The best kept secret in this field in Jake Knapp. Many of the golfers on tour think he is the next Ludvig Arberg. He could easily be rookie of the year.” I looked into Knapp and found that he made six of his last seven cuts, including a third-place finish at the Farmers. I doubt he will be highly owned, so I will take a chance with this young golfer in Mexico.   

ALEJANDRO TOSTI ($7,800): Tosti had a great career on the Korn Ferry Tour with a top-10 finish at this course. Many of the people who follow that tour said Tosti has all of the tools to be a top golfer on the PGA Tour. He is an elite ball-striker and good putter. The problem is they never show up at the same time. If they do…. Watch out. Maybe this is the week when it all comes together for Tosti. We have seen it a lot from unknown golfers on the PGA Tour this year.

CARSON YOUNG ($7,400): Young finished 15th in the Mexico Open last year and he has made his last three cuts on the PGA Tour. He has the course history and the recent form to play well this week. He also ranks No. 8 in the field in SG Approach 200+ yards. That stat should be his key to success in Mexico.

JORGE CAMPILLO ($6,400): Campillo has been playing well on the DP World Tour. He has made 10 of his 11 cuts and he finished runner up a few weeks ago at the Qatar Masters. It has been reported that he has been in Mexico for a week on vacation with his family and getting to know the course. We need to search for diamonds in the ruff this year and Campillo could be that golfer this week.

Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (Multi Entry Lineups)

 

 

FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS

This is the eighth tournament in Segment 1. There are 10 tournaments in this segment, so use your golfers wisely this week. We need to save some of our top golfers for the tournaments on the big tournaments at the end of Segment 1.   

 

 

FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: TONY FINAU (MEXICO OPEN)

Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: Sahith Theegala (37th), Sam Burns (3rd), Max Homa (66th), Jason Day (MC), Taylor Montgomery (61st), Corey Conners (57th)

 

SEASON-LONG ONE & DONE PICK:  NICOLAI HOJGAARD (MEXICO OPEN)

One & Done picks used so far this season: Adam Scott (19th), J.T. Poston (MC), Jordan Spieth (39th), Keegan Bradley (43rd), Andrew Putnam (47th), Russell Henley (4th), Sungae Im (5th), Alex Noran (Won), Beau Hossler (15TH), Min Woo Lee (6th), Adam Schenk (MC), Eric Cole (35TH), Sahith Theegala (Won)

 

 

BEST BETS MEXICO OPEN

NICOLIA HORJGAARD (16-1)

ERIK VAN ROOYER (35-1)

RYO HISATUNE (45-1)

SAM STEVENS (55-1)

JORGE CAMPILLO (150-1)

 

Good Luck This Week!!!!

Follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR