It is Masters Week!!! This is the best week for fantasy golf the entire season. Augusta National Golf Club is the most pristine course on the planet and the field this week consists of the best golfers in the world. There will be a lot of people who usually do not play DFS Golf throwing money at this tournament. Hopefully we can take advantage of their inexperience and win some cash Sunday.
TIGER WOODS
I hope Tiger Woods can play this week. I hope Tiger Woods wins this week. I will not be playing Tiger Woods in DFS this week. Tiger will be too highly owned to be played in Tournament Contest. He has too much risk to be played in Cash Contests. Therefore, I will not be playing Tiger. If he wins the Masters, it will be well worth the money I donated to the DFS sites to see him do it. I am just not willing to have his high ownership (if he plays) in my Tournament or risk his low floor in my Cash Contest lineups.
COURSE BREAKDOWN
Augusta National Golf Club is the No. 1 sports venue on my bucket list. The course is absolutely beautiful. There is not a blade of grass out of place, a flower out of bloom and the sand looks like it is straight from the best Caribbean. Augusta plays 7,510 yards this week. The 11th, 15th and 18th holes have been lengthened but some of the rough was taken out. This will make the course tougher and it will favor the bombers a bit more than it has in the past. This course ranked second-toughest on tour since 2013.
Click here to see the course: Augusta National Golf Club
Course history is huge this week. It is the No. 1 factor I will be using to determine my picks. There are some golfers who just play well in this tournament and others who duff around the course no matter how well their recent form is. Here is a look at the golfer’s tournament history at the Masters. It also shows their recent form and where they rank in the key stats. I use this chart a lot to find golfers for my lineups this week.
You may hear “Fantasy Golf Experts” say recent form doesn’t matter at the Masters. That is B.S. The last 10 golfers who won the Masters had at least one finish in the top-20 entering the Masters. Nine of the last 10 golfers had at least one finish in the top-15. So if you click on the golfer on DraftKings and you see MC, MC, MC…. Stay away. Do not believe the “recent form does not matter” narrative. (Hideki Matsuyama was the only golfer who did not fit this narrative).
KEY STATS FOR THE MASTERS
– Driving Distance
– Stroke Gained Approach
– Scrambling
– Bogie Avoidance
– Strokes Gained Putting (Fast Greens)
WEATHER FOR THE MASTER
Augusta, Georgia had 14” of rain in March. That is the most rain they have had at this course since 2014. They are expected to have some more rain on Tuesday. So what does this mean??? The fairways and greens are going to be soft. The fairways at Augusta are mowed towards the tee boxes. This prevents the golfer’s drives from having a lot or run out. The course was also lengthened, so it is going to play really long this week. The greens are going to be receptive and slower than usually on Thursday and Friday and then speed up over this weekend. This weather scenario played out in 2014 when Bubba Watson won and in 2019 when Tiger Woods won. Rory McIlroy said this course is going to play over 7,800 yards this week (400 yards more than usual). I will put a bit more emphasis on Driving Distance this week (But I still do not like Bryson DeChambeau…LOL).
TOP 30 GOLFER RANKINGS
THE MASTERS STRATEGY
There will only be 88 golfers in the field this week for the Masters (there could be a few WD before the first tee-shot is hit Thursday). The field will get cut down to the top-50 golfers after the final rounds Friday. The 10 shots of the leader rule are not longer in play. That means at least 57% of the field will play all four rounds. We can eliminate the Senior Tour from the list: Fred Couples, Bernhard Langer, Mike Weir, Vijay Singh, Sandy Lyle, Jose Maria Olazabal and Larry Mize. That means roughly 50 out of 80 golfers will make the cut Friday (63%). You MUST have 6/6 golfers in your lineup this week if you want to win some cash.
The cream rises to the top at the Masters. Seldom do we see golfers priced below the $7K range at the top of the leaderboard. The best approach has been to build balanced lineups (Golfers between mid-$9K – mid-$7K price ranges) or taking one golfer above $10K and filling out the lineup with golfers from the $7K and above range. I will not be playing many golfers from the $6K range this week.
I am not making this tournament harder than it needs to be. The golfers who rank high in Distance Off the Tee and Scrambling, have good Course History and enter the tournament with good Recent Form are the golfers who will be at the top of the leaderboard. It has been this way for 10 years and it will be the same Sunday. If the golfers have not played the Masters before, I want to make sure they played well at Kapalua, Rivierra or Muifield Village. These courses relate to Augusta National.
PREVIOUS MILLIONAIRE MAKER WINNING LINEUPS
The best way to predict the future is to look at the past. When we look at the winning lineup in the Millionaire Maker Tournament on DraftKings over the last two years you will see that it is OK to have some of the “chalky” golfers in your lineup. You just need to find the mid-range golfers who can finish at the top of the leaderboard. Try to spend between $49,600 – $50K for your golfers this week.
*Corey Conners (last year) was the only golfer from the $6K price-range to make the Millionaire lineup, so keep that in mind if you want to win the Millions this week.
** I did not include the lineup from 2020 since it was played in November and it was a completely different course.
CORE GOLFERS FOR THE MASTERS
Top-Tier Golfers: Jon Rahm ($10,800), Dustin Johnson ($10,500), Justin Thomas ($10,300), Rory McIlroy ($10,000), Cameron Smith ($9,900), Patrick Cantlay ($9,500), Brooks Koepka ($9,400)
Mid-Tier Golfers: Shane Lowry ($8,900), Talor Gooch ($8,700), Sam Burns ($8,600), Mito Pereira ($8,600), Adam Scott ($8,300), Joaquin Niemann ($8,200), Terrell Hatton ($8,000), Russell Henley ($7,800), Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,700), Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700), Paul Casey ($7,600), Corey Conners ($7,600)
Value Golfers: Justin Rose ($7,500), Patrick Reed ($7,400), Marc Leishman ($7,300), Si Woo Kim ($7,100), Robert Macintyre ($7,000), Cameron Young ($7,000), Brian Harman ($6,900), Kevin Na ($6,800), Thomas Pieters ($6,600), Sepp Straka ($6,600)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
JUSTIN THOMAS ($10,300): We need to find a golfer to plant our flag with this week. For me it is Thomas. I have been researching for this tournament for a week. No matter how I run the key stats and other data, Thomas ALWAYS comes out No. 1. He is No. 1 in the key stats. No. 1 in recent form at the Masters over the last four years. No. 1 in key stats just at Augusta National. I will trust the numbers and play JT in both lineups, bet on him and play JT, use him as my One & Done pick and play Thomas in my Fantasy Golf lineup at PGATour.com.
CAMERON SMITH ($9,900): Smith checks all of the boxes this week. He is in good form after winning THE PLAYERS last month. He also has great course history at Augusta National. Smith finished 10th, 2nd, 51st and 5th in his last four Masters. He ranks No. 2 in the Key Stats and Smith is rested after taking some time off to be with his family. I like the Aussie’s chances of winning Sunday.
MATTHEW FITZPATRICK ($7,700): Fitzpatrick is the most mispriced golfer in the field and that is going to make him one of the highest owned golfers this week. I like Fitzpatrick for Cash Contest lineups. Fitzpatrick has finished five of his last six tournaments in the top-12. He also made six straight cuts at the Masters. Fitzpatrick ranks 7th in the key stats. He should have a good chance to finish in the top-12 this week.
COREY CONNERS ($7,600): There are some golfers who figure out Augusta National and then play well at the Masters every year. Conners is one of those golfers. He finished 8th, 10th and 46th over the last three years. Conners only ranks 31st in my key stats but that is because his putter ranks 66th. But when you change the stats to “only at Augusta National”, his putting improves to 28th. Conners is going to be too popular for Tournament Contests so I will play him in my Cash lineup.
MARC LEISHMAN ($7,300): I have two Aussies in my lineup (Cameron Smith and Adam Scott), so why not add a third? Leishman is one of the best values in the low-$7K price range this week. He has made 10 of 11 cuts this year. His only missed cut was because he drew a tee-time at THE PLAYERS in horrible weather conditions. Leishman has been good at Augusta National too. He finished 5th, 13th, 49th and 9th in his last four Masters. I will take my chances with Leishman this week.
SI WOO KIM ($7,100): Si Woo enters the Masters after a 13th place finish at the Valspar Championship last week. He has now made 8 of 9 cuts this year. Like Marc Leishman, the only missed cut for Kim was because of a poor draw at THE PLAYERS. His course history at Augusta National is not too bad. He finished 12th, 34th, 21st and 24th in his last four Masters. Kim is playing some of the best golf of his career so he should have a good chance to finish in the top-15 this week.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
JUSTIN THOMAS ($10,300): Thomas finished fourth at the Masters in 2020 and his 21st-place finish last year is misleading. Thomas was charging up the leaderboard and got all the way to second place when the horn sounded to suspend play. JT came back out on the course and posted triple-bogie. It killed his round. I am going back to Thomas this week. There are only two golfers who rank in the top-five in all of the key stats. They are Rory McIlroy and Thomas. I like JT’s form more, so I will eat the chalk with him and be contrarian elsewhere in my lineup.
PATRICK CANTLAY ($9,500): If I were to build a course suited for Cantlay’s game it would be Augusta National. It is amazing that he has not had more success at the Masters. He stats look similar to what Hideki Matsuyama’s looked like entering the Masters last year before he won the green jacket. I think Cantlay could be this year’s Matsuyama. His ownership is going to be low because Xander Schauffele and Brooks Koepka are going to be the chalk. I rather have a 12% owned Cantlay over a 22% owned Schauffele this week.
JOAQUIN NIEMANN ($8,200): Do you want a diamond in the rough? His name this week is Joaquin Niemann. He ranks 9th in the key stats and while he has not had a lot of success at the Masters (small sample size), he ranks No. 2 when I sort the golfers by success on comparable courses. Niemann won in a tough field at the Genesis Invitational this year. That is the second closes course to Augusta National in length and setup. I will play a very low owned Niemann and hope he finds the magic he had at Riviera.
TOMMY FLEETWOOD ($7,700): Fleetwood is going to be my pivot from a super chalky Matthew Fitzpatrick. Fleetwood has been playing just as well at Fitzpatrick and his course history at the Masters is a bit better. Fleetwood ranks No. 1 in the field in scrambling and that is going to be important. I will take my chances with a lower-owned Fleetwood this week.
ROBERT MACINTYRE ($7,000): If you are playing in a Single-Entry Tournament contests, you can play it safe and use Marc Leishman over Macintyre. I need to shed some ownership off of Justin Thomas so I will pivot to Macintyre. He is a bomber off the tee who played well last year. Macintyre finished 12th in his first Masters and the extra length this week should give Bib Bob an advantage. He finished 15th at the Genesis Invitational this year, so he has been good at comparable courses too.
CAMERON YOUNG ($7,000): A first time golfer hasn’t won the Masters since Fuzzy Zeller did it in 1979. Sorry Mr. Zeller but you record may be broken this week. I want some bombers in my lineup and Young ranks No. 2 (behind Cameron Champ) in Distance Off-the-Tee. That is not the only reason I like Young. He also ranks 6th in comparable courses. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Open (behind Juaquin Niemann) and if he plays like that this week, Young will be in the winning lineup.
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (FantasyRacingTips)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
YAHOO TOURNAMENT /CASH LINEUP
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the fourth tournament of Segment 3. There is no reason to save allocations this week. The cream usually rises to the top at the Masters so we need to use our top golfers.
ONE & DONE PICK: Justin Thomas (The Masters)
– One & Done picks used so far this season: Chris Kirk (35th), Xander Schauffele (33rd), Louis Oosthiuzen (62nd), Collin Morikawa (MC), Will Zallatoris (38th), Sungjae Im (MC), Patrick Cantlay (33rd), Scottie Scheffler (1st), Jason Day (24th), John Rahm (3rd), Abraham Ancer (40th), Corey Conners (5th), Marc Leishman (9th)
BEST BETS FOR THE MASTERS
Justin Thomas (14-1)
Dustin Johnson (16-1)
Rory McIlroy (20-1)
Brooks Koepka (20-1)
Patrick Cantlay (25-1)
Adam Scott (55-1)
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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