The PGA Tour travels to Scottsdale, Arizona this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open (WMPO), also known as “The Greatest Show on Grass”. This is truly a fans tournament. The galleries at TPC Scottsdale are unlike any other tournament and if it is possible… It will be even wilder with the Super Bowl in town. It is going to be a great sports atmosphere in Phoenix this week.
The field last week at Pebble Beach was trash. That will not be the case in the WMPO. The field this week will be as stacked as some majors. The list of golfers who will be playing this week include Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Victor Hovland, , Shane Lowry, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Cameron Young. There will be plenty of good golfers to choose from for our DFS lineups.
COURSE BREAKDOWN
TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 which plays 7,300 yards in length. It is a long course with a lot of bunkers just off the fairways. The greens are Bermuda grass that is heavily over seeded to make them nice and green. The problem is the hot desert sun makes the greens very hard. It is more important to be accurate then long off the tee. The 17th hole is a short par 4 which the bombers can reach the green in one shot. The best way to score at TPC Scottsdale is to eagle the easy par 5’s. This tends to lead to some low scoring. The golfers who lead the tournament in Ball-Striking always finish at the top of the leaderboard at TPC Scottsdale. I will be targeting the golfers who are accurate with their irons this week.
Click here to see the course: TPC Scottsdale
KEY STATS FOR WASTE MANAGEMENT OPEN
– Strokes Gained Tee to Green
– Ball-Striking
– Birdie or Better %
– Par 5 Scoring
TOP 30 GOLFER RANKINGS
WASTE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
Finally, we have a tournament played on one course with a cut after 36 holes. That was not the case for the tournaments in California. The WMPO is usually one of the easier tournaments to predict because course history means so much at TPC Scottsdale. The same golfers typically pop up at the top of the leaderboard every year. I will be targeting these golfers this week, but I will take a shot with some of the young golfers without course history, who are playing well right now (Tom Kim, Cameron Young and Taylor Montgomery). They may not have heavy ownership like the more popular golfers in the field.
There really is no lineup construction strategy that works better than others when the field is as stacked as it is this week. The field is deep enough to build a good “stars and scrubs” lineup, if you some exposure to Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy. I think this will be the most popular approach. Building a “balanced lineup” will give you more of the top golfers in your lineup and it could be a bit more contrarian. I will be using both lineup construction strategies in my lineups this week.
We have to keep in mind that nine of the last 10 golfers to win the WMPO have also won a major or THE PLAYERS. So, the cream typically rises to the top in Phoenix. We need to have some of the top golfers in our lineups.
One more thing… Do not get overly concerned with ownership with the golfers priced at $9K and above. They are all going to have ownership and I do not expect one player to be massive chalk this week. Simply play the players you think are best. Do not fade a player like Jon Rahm because you think he will be highly owned.
CORE GOLFERS FOR WMPO
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
COLLIN MORIKAWA ($10,000): I tried to build lineups with Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele but I could not get the golfers I wanted to fit into the lineup. I will pivot to Collin Morikawa. He debuted here in 2020 and led the field in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green and Shots Gained Approach. His putting was poor, so he finished 25th. That is not the case anymore. Morikawa is still the best ball-striker in the field and his putter has improved. Morikawa destroyed the best players in the world for three rounds at the Sentry T.O.C. He could do it again in the desert.
SUNGJAE IM ($9,200): Sungae Im is a steady golfer who should give this lineup a top-10 finish Sunday. Im is in good form. He finished 18th in the desert at the American Express and 4th two weeks ago at Torey Pines. He has never missed a cut at the WMPO and Im ranks 12th in the key stats this week. He is a safe golfer with the upside to win this week.
TOM KIM ($9,100): Tom Kim is not the most popular golfer on tour, but that could change after this week’s WMPO. This even was made for Kim. He loves the spotlight, and he thrives when the fans go nuts. It also helps that he ranks No. in Ball-Striking, No. 2 in Shots Gained Approach and No. 1 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green. He ranks second in the key stats behind Jon Rahm. I will have a lot of shares of Kim this week and he will be in all of my Cash Contest lineups.
KEITH MITCHELL ($7,400): Two things I look for in a golfer for the WMPO is great ball-striking and swagger. Keith Mithcell has booth. Like Tom Kim, Mitchell loves the spot light. He ranks 18th in Ball-Striking and 8th in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green. Mitchell finished 4th at Pebble Beach last week and 10th last year in the WMPO. He has the recent form, course history, key stats and swagger to play well this week.
J.T. POSTON ($7,300): I may be a bit late for the J.T. Poston bandwagon, but I see there are some good seats available, so I will hop on. Poston checks all of the boxes this week. He has good recent form with a 6th place finish in his last tournament (American Express) and made all of his cuts in 2023. Poston has also made every cut at the WMPO (23rd, 11th, 37th and 26th over the last four years). He only ranks 38th in the key stats but that is because Poston is good but not great in all stat categories.
ADAM HADWIN ($7,100): I will play the “Desert Fox” this week. It is no secret in Fantasy Golf that Adam Hadwin plays well in the desert. His recent form is as good as it has been in a long time. Hadwin has made all of his cuts on tour this year and 16 in a row dating back to last year. He has also made seven cuts in a row at the WMPO. Hadwin ranks No. 16 in my key stats. He is the best bargain in the field for $7,100.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
JON RAHM ($11,000): I read some articles about Jon Rahm being the chalk this week. That will not be the case with Rory McIlroy and the other top golfers in this field. I will play Rahm because he has a chip on his shoulder. He desperately wants to be the No. 1 golfer in the World and Rory McIlroy has that title. I expect Rahm will want to dominate this week to show everyone who the best player in the World truly is. He ranks No. 1 in the Key Stats and No. 1 in course history. I will pay up for the red-hot Rahm at his home course.
SEHITH THEEGALA ($8,500): Sehith Theegala played the WMPO for the first-time last year. All he did is finished 3rd and let the field in many of the key stats. Theegala finished 4th two weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open. Theegala ranks 13th in the key stats. TPC Scottsdale fits his game perfectly. I doubt he will be highly owned this week.
RICKIE FOWLER ($8,000): What year did we turn to on January 1st? Was it 2023 or was it 2016? It sure feels like 2016 with Justin Rose winning a tournament and Rickie Fowler and Jason Day at the top of the leaderboards. The WMPO has always been the best tournament for Fowler, but his form has sucked over the last three seasons. Fowler got his old swing coach back (Butch Harman) and now he is finding his old form. Fowler finished 11th two weeks ago at Torrey Pines and he won the WMPO in 2019. I will take a chance with the Orange Puma in the desert.
KEEGAN BRADLEY ($7,700): There narrative in Fantasy Golf about Keegan Bradley at the WMPO is that he typically plays well for three rounds and then he needs to get to the hotel early to watch Tom Brady and his Patriots in the Super Bowl. Well, he does not need to worry about that this week, so we should get four good rounds of golf from Bradley. He has made 11 of his 13 cuts at the WMO and he just finished 2nd at Torrey Pines two weeks ago. This should be “Keegan Week” in Fantasy Golf.
CORREY CONNERS ($7,700): I am not sure what it is, but the Canadians typically play well in the desert. I will complete my Tournament Contest lineup with two Canadians. Getting Correy Conners for $7,700 is a good bargain. He has never missed a t cut at the WMPO (3 for 3) and he has made all of his cuts on tour in 2023. Conners ranks 10th in Ball-Striking, 17th in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green and 16th overall in the key stats. I will take a shot with the Canadian this week.
ADAM HADWIN ($7,100): I typically do not like to have the same golfers in my Cash and Tournament Contest lineups because I want to write about as many golfers as possible, but Hadwin fits this lineup perfectly. His form and course history makes Hadwin a great player for all lineups. Some pivots I like are Luke List and Russell Knox.
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (FantasyRacingTips)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the sixth tournament of Segment 2. There are 10 tournaments included in Segment 2, including THE PLAYERS Championship in March.
** I am going to go ahead and my last start with Jon Rahm this week. He went to school at Arizona State, and he loves this course. Saving Rahm for THE PLAYERS may sound like a good strategy, but TPC Sawgrass is one of his worst courses.
FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: XANDER SCHAUFFELE (WMPO)
* This tournament has an “elevated purse”, and the golfers are required to play most of these events. The winner gets $3.6M this week and the purse is $20M. I want to use my top golfers in the tournaments with “elevated purses.” This is one of those events.
** I really had a hard time choosing between Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa. They are my two favorite golfers in this field behind Jon Rahm. I want to save Morikawa for one of the majors and I have Rahm penciled in for the HUGE purse at the Tour Championship.
Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: Seamus Power (15th), Max Homa (1st), Brian Harman (MC), Corey Conners (12th)
SEASON LONG ONE & DONE PICK: XANDER SCHAUFFELE (WMPO)
Players Used This Season in One & Done: Jordan Spieth (63rd), Jon Rahm (7th), Taylor Montgomery (5th), Russell Henley (32nd), Seamus Power (25th), Brian Harman (2nd), Maverick McNealy (27th), Emiliano Grillo (42nd), Nick Hardy (28th), Terrell Hatton (13TH) Christian Bezuidenhout (29th), Cameron Davis (37th), Denny McCarthy (39th), Brendon Steele (CUT)
BEST BETS WMPO
Collin Morikawa (20-1)
Tom Kim (28-1)
Hideki Matsuyama (30-1)
Jason Day (45-1)
LOG SHOT SPECIAL: Keegan Bradley (70-1)
* I am not dipping too deep with the long shots this week.
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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