DFS Xfinity Series Picks for Homestead-Miami

The Xfinity Series will join the Cup Series and Truck Series at the Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend. It has been a tough season for the DraftKings picks in the Xfinity Series, but they finally reach the pay-line at Las Vegas. That had a lot to do with the fact that the race last week was not on a Superspeedway, not on a road course and we had plenty of time to figure out the picks. The race this week at Homestead is the same, so I am expecting similar results. The Hard Rock Bet 300 can be seen Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on the CW Channel.

PRACTICE / QUALIFYING

The Xfinity Series had their normal practice session Saturday morning. The teams were broken up into two groups and each group had 25-minutes to dial in their cars for Saturday’s race. Some teams were able to make a long run in practice, so this should help us determine which drivers have the fast cars for the Hard Rock Bet 300. The cars lined up for single-lap qualifying Saturday morning and then impounded for Saturdays race.

Here are the lap times from Saturday’s practice session at Homestead-Miami Speedway….

STRATEGY FOR HOMESTEAD

We have the same problem today in the Xfinity Series race, that we had last night in the Truck Series race. Kyle Larson is one of the best drivers on the planet at Homestead-Miami Speedway and he is racing is all three series this weekend. We need to decide if we are going to play Larson, or fade the No. 17 car.

Kyle Larson is priced $2K more than any other driver in the field. He is going to need to lead most of the laps and win the race in order to return value. Larson has driven the No. 17 car for Hendrick Motorsports in nine races since 2022. He won three of the races (33.3%) and he was the main dominator in one of those races (Sonoma in 2023). The odds suggest that Larson is not worth his steep price, but this is Homestead-Miami Speedway. He is going to be good. I plan to pay up for Larson in 60% of my lineups and fade him in 40% of my lineups this evening.

DRAFTKINGS STATS FOR HOMESTEAD

We know Kyle Larson is good at Homestead, but who else is good at this track? Homestead is a unique track and it requires a unique racing style. I like to focus my picks on the drivers who have run well at Homestead. I used the data from the last three races at Homestead and added in the data from the race last week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. I wanted at least some speed for the 2025 Xfinity Series races in the model.

Here is the driver’s Average DraftKings Points in the last three races at Homestead-Miami Speedway and the race last week in Las Vegas…