They’re back!! The Truck Series returns after nearly a month break. So will the series pick up where they left off or did some of the teams use this break to find some more speed? The truckers will kick-off a double-header of racing Saturday (the Xfinity Series race starts at 6 p.m. ET). It should be fun to watch. The United Rentals 200 can be seen Saturday at 1 p.m. ET on FS1.
Strategy
The race Saturday is scheduled for 200 laps (105 miles). That is a lot of laps for a Truck Series race but it is also a pretty short race. There will be 50 points available for leading laps and 90 points available for fastest laps in DraftKings contests Saturday.
The trend in the Truck Series race at Martinsville is for three drivers to dominate the race. The main-dominator leads roughly 64 laps and scores 36 fastest laps (32.2 dominator points). The two sub-dominators lead between 40-50 laps and score 12 fastest laps (roughly 17 dominator points). It will be important to pay up for these dominators Sunday. The drivers I like to lead the most laps include: John H. Nemecheck, Ben Rhodes, Grant Enfinger, Sheldon Creed and Josh Berry
There are also some drivers who start deep in the field who will have a good chance to score a lot of place differential points. We cannot ignore these truckers Saturday. The drivers who start in the back with the best chance to move to the front include: Josh Berry, Grant Enfinger, Johnny Sauter, Parker Kligerman, Colby Howard and Dawson Cram.
DraftKings Model (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
Core Drivers for Martinsville
Top-Tier: Parker Kligerman ($11,500), Josh Berry ($11,300), Johnny Sauter ($10,900), John H. Nemechek ($10,600), Sheldon Creed ($10,300), Grant Enfinger ($9,700), Chandler Smith ($9,200)
Mid-Tier: Matt Crafton ($8,400), Stewart Friesen ($8,200), Ben Rhodes ($8,000), Carson Hocever ($7,600), Derek Kraus ($6,800), Timmy Hill ($6,000)
Punt Plays: Austin Wayne Self ($5,700), Dawson Cram ($5,500), Danny Bohn ($4,900), Spencer Boyd ($4,700), Cory Roper ($4,600)
Here are my picks for the United Rentals 200…
Cash Contest Lineup
Josh Berry ($11,300) will be in the No. 25 Truck for Rackley W.A.R. this week. Brett Moffitt, Timothy Peters and Berry have taken turns driving the No. 25 truck this year. They typically finish between 11th – 17th but this week could be different. Horsepower doesn’t mean much at Martinsville. The driver’s skills behind the wheel will determine if the driver finishes up front. Berry is awesome at Martinsville so he should be able to get his truck inside the top-10 from the 25th starting position.
John H. Nemechek ($10,600) will be my top dominator in my Cash Contest lineup. Nemechek is 36 points above the cut line for advancing to Phoenix so he just needs to run up front and score Stage Points so he can secure his spot at the end of Stage 2. Then he can go after the win. I was surprised Nemechek wasn’t the highest priced driver this week.
Grant Enfinger ($9,700) is a great pick for under $10K. He starts 15th and he has the second-best average finishing position at Martinsville over the last three seasons. Enfinger won this race last year. I would not be surprised if he was in Victory Lane Saturday.
Ben Rhodes ($8,000) is miss-priced this week. DraftKings must not think Rhodes can stay in the top-five or lead any laps Saturday. The stats disagree with DK. Rhodes has finished three of his last four races at Martinsville in the top-four. He also led 134 laps in 2018. I will take the discount with Rhodes to have another potential dominator in my lineup.
Dawson Cram ($5,500) is my favorite cheap driver Saturday. Cram has four races at Martinsville in the Truck Series on his resume. His average finishing position is 17.5. That is pretty good when Cram starts 33rd Saturday. He should move up 15 spots and score 43 DK points. That is awesome for $5,500.
Spencer Boyd ($4,700) will be my “punt play” in my Cash Contest. Boyd has some risk since he starts 18th, but he should be able to maintain position. Boyd has four races at Martinsville in the Truck Series on his resume and his average finishing position is 21st. Boyd finished his last two races at Martinsville in the 15th position. I am hoping for another top-15 finish from Boyd this week.
Tournament Lineup
John H. Nemechek ($10,600) will be my top dominator Saturday. He starts from the pole and he has had the fastest truck all season. Nemechek has a lot of experience at Martinsville. He has 12 races in the Truck Series and two races in the Cup Series at this track. He won this race 2018 and he is my pick to win this week.
Grant Enfinger ($9,700) is one of my favorite picks Saturday. Enfinger will be back in the No. 98 Truck for ThorSport Racing. He won this race last year and Enfinger has a fourth-place average finishing position since 2018 at Martinsville. He should score 10+ place differential points and some dominator points this week.
Matt Crafton ($8,400) is a good value pick Saturday. I learned my lesson about betting against Crafton in the playoffs in 2019 when he sucked all year and then got hot in the final races and won the championship. The same could happen this season. Crafton finished fifth in this race last year. I think the three weeks to prepare for this race will help Crafton this week.
Ben Rhodes ($8,000) is the third-best pick in the field according to the model. The reason the model likes him so much is because of his history of running up front at Martinsville. Rhodes finished second in two of the last three races at Martinsville. He also led 134 laps at Martinsville in 2018, so he knows how to turn fast laps at this track. He is a great value for $8K.
Stewart Friesen ($8,200) is another great value pick. He has run well in the playoffs. Friesen has a fourth-place average finish in the playoffs (not including the race at Talladega). He also has a history of running well at Martinsville. Friesen finished 6th, 6th and 5th in his last three races at this track. I am not sure he will lead many laps, but Friesen should finish in the top-10.
Danny Bohn ($4,900) will be my “punt play” for my Tournament Contest. No one is going to play Bohn from the 14th starting position, but maybe they should. Bohn has two races at Martinsville on his Truck Series resume. He started 19th in both races and finished 7th and 8th in the two races. For $4,900 I will take my chances to see if he can keep his top-10 streak going at Martinsville.
Good Luck this week!
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