The PGA Tour travels to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida this week for THE PLAYERS. This tournament is considered “The Fifth Major” on the PGA Tour schedule, but does is that name still true. The field this week will be nearly the same as the “elevated tournaments” and all of the best golfers in the world are not invited (yes, I am talking about some of the LIV Tour players). What makes THE PLAYERS stand out from the other “elevated tournaments” is the purse. The winner this week gets $4.5M and the purse is the second-highest on tour (behind the Tour Championship) at $25. The importance of THE PLAYERS cannot be ignored when there is that much cash on the line this week. It should be a fun tournament to watch and a good tournament to win some cash in DFS contests.
THE PLAYERS Championship last year was a disaster. The weather was horrible and it made the course almost unplayable. The golfers who were on the right side of the tee time draw had a HUGE advantage. This caused a lot of the top golfers to miss the cut. The defending champ (Cameron Smith) will not be in the field this week. I am not placing too much stock into what happened last year at THE PLAYERS.
COURSE BREAKDOWN
The tournament will be played at TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course, just outside of Jacksonville, Florida. This is a Pete Dye designed course and that means it will be challenging for every type of golfer. The course plays 7,190 yards and is a par 72. There are water hazards and bunkers all over the course so accurate hitters will be rewarded. The four par 5s are really long so the bombers will be rewarded on these holes. You do not need to be a bomber to win though. Accuracy is the most important stat this week. The greens are typically fast and tend to roll out three to four feet further than the golfers are used to. This will need to be accurate on their approach shots or they better have a red hot flat stick. Golfers need to be in great form and have all aspects of their game clicking if they want a chance to win THE PLAYERS.
Click here to see the course: TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course
KEY STATS FOR THE PLAYERS
– Strokes Gained Total (Pete Dye Courses)
– Boogey Avoidance
– Driving Accuracy %
– Greens in Regulation %
– Comp Course History (Harbour Tour, Stadium Course, TPC River Highlands, Copper Head)
* You want golfers who hit the fairway off the tee and hit the green with the irons. Golfers who are wild will be in big trouble at TPC Sawgrass.
TOP 30 GOLFER RANKINGS
THE PLAYERS STRATEGY
What makes TPC Sawgrass so challenging is that there is water on 17 holes and the course dares the golfers to take it on. Most golfers cannot hold back the temptation and they end up depositing a lot of golf balls into “the drink.” The Pete Dye course brings a lot of golfers into play this week. I typically look at the golfers who are solid off-the-tee, but that does not matter this week. Of the top-20 players in Shots Gained Off-the-Tee over the last 36 rounds, only three have avoided missing the cut at this event within the last three years (Jon Rahm, Will Zalatoris and Seamus Power). The best strategy this week is to diversify your lineups with many good players from the $8K and $7K ranges.
TOURNAMENT CONSTRUCTION STRATEGY
Las week I loaded up on “The Big Three” (Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler). The strategy worked well until Rahm fell apart on the weekend. This week is different. I still like the “Big Three” this week and I will have them in my lineup.
I have listened to a load of pod casts, read a lot of fantasy golf articles and everyone is preaching “the randomness of this tournament means we need to play the lower owned players.” I hope they keep preaching that, because it is not my strategy this week.
There is so much talent in this tournament that no golfer is going to be super chalky. I will play a chalky Victor Hovland over a lower owned Sungjae Im if the ownership is only going to be 5%. Jason Day will be popular and I hear people talking about pivoting to Shane Lowery or Tommy Fleetwood. I will eat the 5% ownership Day will have over these other players because he checks way more boxes this week (good form, good course history….). My advice is… Do not go crazy and fade players who you think will be highly owned. The ownership will be spread out this week and you will be asking yourself Sunday, “Why did I fade Rory McIlroy when he was the obvious choice to win?”
CASH CONTEST STRATEGY
The randomness of this tournament makes it tough to create good Cash Contest lineups. The leaderboards never look the same at THE PLAYERS. I really like the strategy of playing one of the “Big Three” (John Rahm, Rory McIlroy or Scottie Scheffler) in your Cash Contest lineups. Pairing one of these studs with Justin Thomas, Victor Hovland or Sungjae Im will be my strategy in most Cash Contests. I will grab one $8K player (Terrell Hatton, Jason Day or Tom Kim) and then fill in the rest with the safest plays in the $7K range (Rickie Fowler, Keegan Bradley, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Thomas Detry and Ben Griffin).
CORE GOLFERS FOR THE PLAYERS
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
RORY MCILROY ($11,000): I had McIlroy penciled in for my top player in my Cash Contest lineup at THE PLAYERS for a long time. I thought about switching it after McIlroy got off to a slow start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He caught fire over the weekend and now he is my pick again. McIlory ranks No. 1 in the key stats and he is my pick to win. He gives us a lot of firepower at the top of our lineup.
VICTOR HOVLAND ($8,900): The prices for DK came out last weekend. If they would have posted the prices on Monday, Hovland surely would have been a mid-$9K golfer. I will take the discount. He finished 9th last year at THE PLAYERS and he finished 10th last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I expect another top-10, with the upside to win Sunday from Hovland.
JASON DAY ($8,000): I ran the key stats and I was not surprised to see John Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Max Homa take the top-four spots. Guess who was No. 5? Mr. Jason Day. It is great to see Day find his old form. He has one of the hottest streaks on tour right now. J-Day has finished 10th, 9th, 5th and 7th in his last four tournaments dating back to early January. He won THE PLAYERS in 2016. I bet him to win again this week.
KEEGAN BRADLEY ($7,600): The safest pick in the field and the lock of the week in Cash Contests is Bradley. He is the only golfer in the field to play ever round of golf at THE PLAYERS since 2016. All he does is make cuts and he has the upside for a top-five finish. Bradley finished 5th in THE PLAYERS last year and 7th in 2018. He is playing some of the best golf of his career so just lock him into your Cash Contest.
CORREY CONNERS ($7,400): This last pick was tough. I had to choose between Rickie Fowler and Conners. I like both of them, but I think Conners is a slightly safer play. He has made every cut dating back to last September. He has also never missed a cut at THE PLAYERS. He is one of the most accurate golfers in the field, so he should be a great pick for Cash Contest lineups.
THOMAS DETRY ($7,100): Detry has been playing solid golf all season. The only missed cut he had was two weeks ago at the Honda Classic. Detry said he had food poisoning and that was the reason for the W/D. He was not injured and Detry bounced back with a 24th-place finish last week. Without the food poisoning, Detry would be 13/13 in cuts made this year. His accuracy off-the-tee and into the greens should make Detry a good cheap pick for Cash Contest lineups.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
MAX HOMA ($9,900): Everyone has been talking about the “Big Three” this week. I argue that there is a “Big Four.” Homa is playing just as well as John Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, but his ownership will be lower, and his price is much cheaper. He ranks No. 2 in Fairways Hit %, No. 2 in Shots Gained Approach and No. 3 in Shots Gained Putting (Bermuda). He is the No. 1 player in the field according to the stats over the last 16 rounds. I will fade the “Big Three” and take a chance with the next best player in the field.
JUSTIN THOMAS ($9,400): Do you want a “Course Horse” to ride to the pay window this week? JT is your guy. He has made every cut at THE PLAYERS since 2014 (He did have a MDF in 2017). Thomas also won this tournament in 2021. His recent form is not elite, but it wasn’t elite last year when he won the PGA Championship. JT ranks really high on the Pete Dye courses and he played decent last week (JT finished 21st at the Arnold Palmer Invitational). I would not be surprised if he won Sunday.
CAMERON YOUNG ($8,500): Are you telling me I can get Young for $8,500? Sign me up! He looked like he was going to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week when he shot a 67 in round 1. Young faded over the weekend, but I am not worried about it. I want golfers who can hit fairways and hit greens. Young ranks No. 10 in Fairways Gained % and No. 18 in Greens in Regulation. He also ranks No. 2 in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green. That stats like Young and I do too, so I will play him in my Tournament Contest lineup.
RICKIE FOWLER ($7,700): I know I sound like a broken record because Fowler is in my lineup every week. I will continue to play him because there are some people in the fantasy golf industry that think his success will not last. He went back to Butch Harmon as his swing coach, and he was able to get Fowler back to what he was five years ago. Fowler won THE PLAYERS in 2015. I doubt he will win Sunday, but he does have top-five upside.
SEHITH THEEGALA ($7,600): I want a golfer with top-10 upside and low ownership. Theegala checks both boxes. He has played well in these big events. Theegala finished 4th at the Farmers Insurance Open, 6th at the Genesis Invitational and 14th last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He ranks 13th in the key stats this week and he stood at as one of the best bargain picks in the field. There is a lot to like about Theegala this week.
BEN GRIFFIN ($7,100): The stats scream “Play Ben Griffin” but few people in the fantasy golf industry are talking about him. Griffin has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 events and that includes a 14th-place finish last week. He ranks 18th in the key stats. Griffin ranks higher than Will Zalatoris, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry in the key stats. Would you play any of those golfers at $7,100? Then why not take a chance on a low owned Griffin?
Here are my lineups for Multi-Entry Tournament Contest: (FantasyRacingTips)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
PGATOUR.COM FANTASY PICKS
* This is the last tournament of Segment 2. There is no need to save any golfers this week. We get all of our allocations back next week, so you the best golfers you have at TPC Sawgrass.
** I am out of John Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. I would use them if they were available.
FANTASY GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP ONE & DONE PICK: RORY MCILROY (THE PLAYERS)
Players in Fantasy Golf Championship One & Done so far: Will Zalatoris (53rd), Matt Kuchar (MC), Tony Finau (20), Xander Schauffele (10th), Seamus Power (15th), Max Homa (1st), Brian Harman (MC), and Corey Conners (12th)
SEASON LONG ONE & DONE PICK: RORY MCILROY (THE PLAYERS)
Players Used This Season in One & Done: Will Zallatoris (53rd), Sungjae Im (42nd), Max Homa (2), Xander Schauffele (10th), Jordan Spieth (63rd), Jon Rahm (7th), Taylor Montgomery (5th), Russell Henley (32nd), Seamus Power (25th), Brian Harman (2nd), Maverick McNealy (27th), Emiliano Grillo (42nd), Nick Hardy (28th), Terrell Hatton (13TH) Christian Bezuidenhout (29th), Cameron Davis (37th), Denny McCarthy (39th), Brendon Steele (CUT)
THE PLAYERS BEST BETS
MAX HOMA (20-1)
VICTOR HOVLAND (25-1)
JASON DAY (28-1)
CAMERON YOUNG (35-1)
JOOHYUNG “TOM” KIM (35-1)
LOG SHOT SPECIAL: WEB SIMPSON (150-1) and Sepp Straka (200-1)
Good Luck This Week!!!!
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