The NASCAR Cup Series will race this week at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The track was repaved and reconfigured before the races last year. It is now considered a Superspeedway and the Cup Series will use their Superspeedway aero package in the cars. It will be interesting to see if the track has aged any over the winter and if the pack racing will still be as close as it was last year. We will also have to see if the Chevy’s can continue their winning streak in 2023. They have won every race so far this year and they won both races at Atlanta last year. Can they do it again? The Ambetter Health 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 pm ET on FOX.
STRATEGY FOR ATLANTA
The Fantasy Live picks continue to score well. The picks are currently outscoring 98% of the entries and they look like the streak of 11 years of outscoring 99% of the entries will continue. The picks would have been better last week without the late race caution, but it is tough to complain about scoring 266 points.
“Any driver who enters the race has a decent chance to win” is usually the narrative at the Superspeedways. While that is somewhat true, the cream still raised to the top last year. William Byron won the first race and Chase Elliott won the July race. We will likely see one of the favorites in Victory Lane again Sunday.
I mapped out my picks for the season and I have extra picks with Ryan Blaney because I keep putting him into the Garage. I was also expecting to use Chase Elliott in a few of these races, so I need to find a replacement for the No. 9 car. I know there are a lot of people who will want to fade their top drivers Sunday because Atlanta is a Superspeedway track. I am not doing it though. I am confident I can make it through the end of the season without worrying too much about allocations. I am playing the best picks possible this week.
Here are the picks for the Ambetter Health 400 …
WILLIAM BYRON (8): How can you fade Willy-B right now? He has won the last two races in the Cup Series (Las Vegas and Phoenix) and he won this race at Atlanta last year. Byron did not only win, he dominated the race at Atlanta. The No. 24 car led 111 laps, scored 12 Stage Points and went to Victory Lane. I expect Byron to be wearing his big hat and holding a trophy at the end of the race Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN (8): The best driver at Atlanta Motor Speedway last year was Ross Chastain. He finished second in both race, averaged 38 laps led and he had the second-best Driver Rating (behind Chase Elliott who is not racing this week). Chastain finished ninth at Daytona this year. He should have the speed to contend for the win at Atlanta.
JOEY LOGANO (8): I wasn’t planning on using Logano in this spot, but then the No. 22 car went out and won the pole. Logano is one of the best Superspeedway drivers in the Cup Series. He did not have very good races at Atlanta last year, so this pick goes against the trends I am using for picking drivers Sunday. I will take a chance with Logano from the No. 1 poistion and the No. pit stall. If he struggles, I will put him in the Garage.
RYAN BLANEY (9): The No. 12 car is the only non-Chevy car I will have in my starting lineup Sunday. The Chevy’s have won every race but Blaney has been good too. What has made Blaney so good this year is that he can have problems right before Stage 2 and he can still battle his way to the front for a top-five finish. Blaney is one of the best Superspeedway drivers so I will take a chance with the No. 12 car. I just need to stop putting him in the Garage at the end of Stage 2.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (9): Clint Bowyer said during qualifying, “I asked Keselowski when he was going to win a race and he firmly believes it will happen this week at Atlanta.” Keselowski may be right. He had the best car on the Superspeedway track at Daytona when he led a race high 42 laps. Now Keselowski starts fourth and he has the track position to lead some laps, score some Stage Points and finish in the top-10.
(GARAGE PICK) DANIEL SUAREZ (10): Trackhouse Racing flexed their muscle at Atlanta Motor Speedway last year when Ross Chastain finished both races in the top-two and Daniel Suarez finished both races in the top-six. Suarez has been on a hot streak to start the 2023 season. The No. 99 car has finished three of the first four races in the top-10. All of the stats suggest Suarez will finish in the top-10 Sunday so I will have him in my Garage as an insurance policy Sunday.
Good luck and be sure to follow me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.