Fantasy Live has been my best game the past three seasons and the 2017 season is off to a hot start. The key to scoring well is to find the drivers who lead the most laps and finish each Stage in the top 10. So far my picks have paid off this season. My teams are ranked in the top 98.5%.
NASCAR qualifying on Friday really made picking your Fantasy Live team difficult this week. Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano and Trevor Bayne failed to qualify their cars Friday. They will start the race from the back of the field and will be very popular plays this week.
I am not so sure that using Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano is the best choice for your team. Yes they will score the most position differential points, but the chances of them scoring bonus points for leading laps, fastest laps and Stage points are slim (although Johnson did look fast in final practice).
I broke down the race according to how I think each driver will perform in the race to see which combination will give me the most points. I figured in the driver’s starting position, finishing position, position differential points, finishing position points, laps led points and Stage wins points. I did not include fastest laps points because they are too unpredictable. Here is how it came out…
|
Team using Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano and Trevor Bayne |
||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Pos. Dif.
Points |
Finish Points | Laps Led Points | Stage 1 Points | Stage 2 Points |
Total Points |
|
Jimmie Johnson |
37 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 71 |
| Joey Logano | 35 | 10 | 25 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
59 |
|
Clint Bowyer |
17 | 13 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 |
| Trevor Bayne | 36 | 23 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
31 |
|
Michael McDowell |
25 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
|
Total Points |
215 |
|||||||
If you try to pair Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano with a driver who could lead a lot of laps your team will score more points. Kyle Larson should lead many laps so I paired the No. 42 car with the No. 48 and No. 22 to see how the points would play out.
|
Team using Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano and Kyle Larson |
||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Pos. Dif.
Points |
Finish Points | Laps Led Points | Stage 1 Points | Stage 2 Points |
Total Points |
|
Jimmie Johnson |
37 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 71 |
| Joey Logano | 35 | 10 | 25 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
59 |
|
Kyle Larson |
1 | 2 | -1 | 39 | 28 | 9 | 8 | 83 |
| Aric Almirola | 31 | 20 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
32 |
|
Gray Gaulding |
39 | 34 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
|
Total Points |
262 |
|||||||
I think the best strategy this week is to select either Jimmie Johnson or Joey Logano and pair them with two drivers who can lead a lot of laps. Johnson looked much better than Logano in Final Practice. The No. 48 team is using the car that won this race last year (it is the back-up car they rolled out Friday). I plan to pair Johnson with Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick. The pole winner has led at least 82 laps in every race this season and Larson should lead many laps Sunday. The No. 4 team is rolling the dice to win this race this week since they will be without their crew chief next week. No driver ran the bottom as well as Harvick in practice.
|
Team using Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson and Jimmie Johnson |
||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Pos. Dif.
Points |
Finish Points | Laps Led Points | Stage 1 Points | Stage 2 Points |
Total Points |
|
Kevin Harvick |
7 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 41 | 7 | 9 | 104 |
| Kyle Larson | 1 | 2 | -1 | 39 | 28 | 9 | 8 |
83 |
|
Jimmie Johnson |
37 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 71 |
| Michael McDowell | 25 | 24 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
18 |
|
Matt Dibenedetto |
38 | 31 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
|
Total Points |
300 |
|||||||
The only way the using Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano will work out this week is if they get to the front and lead laps. I think that is going to be difficult for them since Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. look so good in practice.
Here are my picks for the Auto Club 400…
Kevin Harvick $27.75 (Starts 7th)
Kyle Larson $27.25 (Starts Pole)
Jimmie Johnson $26.50 (Starts 37th)
Michael McDowell $10.50 (Starts 25th)
Matt Dibenedetto $7.50 (Starts 38th)
PICK TO WIN: Kevin Harvick
MANUFACTURER: Chevy
* I am hedging my bet and picking Chevy as my manufacturer. I think Kevin Harvick has the car and the motivation to win this week, but just in case Kyle Larson does find his way to Victory Lane I want to ensure I earn some bonus points.
Good luck this week!
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