The NASCAR Cup Series will make the trip to “The Last Great Coliseum” this weekend for some short-track racing. Bristol Motor Speedway is a .533-mile, high-banked, short-track. The 28 degrees of banking at Bristol allows the drivers to carry a lot of speed around this half-mile track and it typically creates some entertaining racing. Denny Hamlin won the last two races on the schedule and he won the spring race at Bristol last year. Can anyone beat the No. 11 car to the checkered flag this week? It should be fun to watch. The Food City 500 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
The race last week at Darlington did not go as planned. I was expecting a lot more from Chase Briscoe since he won at Darlington last year and he qualified in the top-five. The No. 19 car was junk for most of the race. Bubba Wallace did not do much after the first Stage as well. Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Christopher Bell carried the team. The picks went from outscoring 96% of the entries on nascar.com to outscoring 97%. At least we are moving in the right direction.
Here are my results from the Darlington…
PRACTICE SPEEDS FOR BRISTOL
NASCAR had their normal schedule this weekend. The teams were broken up into two groups. Each group had 25-minutes to dial in their cars for the race. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice. So, how did practice speeds translate into race speed at Bristol last year? Denny Hamlin posted the 30th fastest speed, with the 22nd fastest long-run speed at Bristol last year. He then went out and led 163 laps and won the race. Ty Gibbs posted the 34th fastest speed, with the 29th fastest long-run speed in practice last year. Gibbs went out and led 137 laps, won both Stages and finished ninth in the race.
The race this week looks like it is going to play out just like it did last spring at Bristol. Starting position will not matter, practice speeds does not matter, but the driver’s ability to save the tires over the long runs will mean everything. We can learn more by looking at last year’s race results in the spring than we can by looking at the practice speeds Saturday. I posted the practice speeds, just in case you are interested in them.
Here are the speeds from Saturday’s practice session at Bristol Motor Speedway…
STRATEGY FOR BRISTOL
The two races at Bristol were completely different last year. The spring race was cold and the tires wore out quickly. The Bristol Night Race was hot and the tires maintained their grip for around 80 laps. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota’s dominated in the spring and the Hendrick Motorsports Chevy’s dominated the fall. So which team should we use drivers from this week?
Joe Gibbs Racing, Hendrick Motorsports and RFK Racing have been the best organizations at Bristol in the Gen-7 car. I see no reason why that may change Sunday. I know we need to use our allocations wisely with the drivers from JGR and HMS, but they are just too good to fade at Bristol. I will build my lineups around the drivers from these organizations Sunday.
Here are the picks for the Food City 500…
KYLE LARSON (7): Larson absolutely smoked the field in the last race at Bristol. He led 462 of the 500 laps, won both Stages and finished 2nd in the race. Larson has finished 1st, 5th, 2nd, 5th and 1st in his last five races at Bristol. That is an average finishing position of 2.8. He has also averaged 14th Stage Points and 142 laps led in those races. Larson is competing in all three races this weekend, so he should know more about the tire wear in this race then any driver in the field.
ALEX BOWMAN (8): Bowman has a lot going for him Sunday. He starts on the pole and has the No. 1 pit stall. That is always good. Bowman is also good at Bristol. He finished both races in Thunder Valley in the top-10 last year. That includes a 4th-place finish in the spring. Bowman is one of the best at saving his tires over a long run. The No. 48 car has a good chance to finish up front Sunday.
DENNY HAMLIN (8): Hamlin took the field to school last spring at Bristol. The tires wore out after 20-30 laps and Hamlin patiently made his way to the front as he saved his tires over the long runs. Hamlin 163 laps and won the race. The tires wore out the same way in practice. Hamlin should smoke the field if this race plays out like it did last spring in Bristol.
CHRISTOPHER BELL (7): Bell was junk in the Gen-6 car at Bristol and then NASCAR brought the Gen-7 car to the track and Bell came to life. He finished 4th, 3rd, 10th and 5th in the four races in the Gen-7 car. That is good enough for the fourth-best average finishing position at Bristol in the Gen-7 car. Bell also led 143 laps in 2022, 183 laps in 2023 and he has scored Stage Points in every Stage since the Gen-7 car began racing at Bristol. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota’s were the best in the spring race at Bristol last year. I will stack the JGR drivers again Sunday.
TY GIBBS (10): It has been hard to trust Gibbs over the last year, but he is starting to turn it around. Gibbs finished 13th at Martinsville two weeks ago and ninth last week at Darlington. Now he gets to race at his best track. Gibbs led 137 laps, won both Stages and finished ninth in this race last year. He also led 102 laps, scored 10 Stage Points and finished fifth in 2023. This race looks like it is setting up to play out just like it did last year, so I will play Gibbs and hope he can repeat his 2024 performance at Bristol.
(GARAGE PICK) RYAN BLANEY (7): Blaney started on the pole in the spring race last year and he quickly lost his track position because Team Penske did not plan on the tires wearing out as quickly as they did. Blaney said that the No. 12 team was expecting a lot of tire wear this weekend, so he should be much better. Blaney is a smart driver. I expect him to take care of his car and finish up front Sunday.
Good luck and be sure to follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will send out a Tweet during the race to let you know if I plan to swap out one of my drivers for my Garage pick.