I updated my model I use for my picks after the news that Martin Truex Jr. will start from the back. The model had Kyle Busch leading 30 laps and Truex leading 30 laps. Now that Truex is going to the back the model suggests that Busch will lead 55 laps. Because of this I am making a change to my team.
My model still likes Brad Keselowski and Kyle Larson the best. Here is how it breaks down…
New Fantasy Live Team
Brad Keselowski: 40 points (for finish 1st), 4 PD points, 17 Stage points, 15 Laps led points (30 laps) = 76 points
Kyle Larson: 35 points (for finish 2nd), 4 PD points, 19 Stage Points, 20 laps led points (40 laps) = 78 points
Kyle Busch: 33 points (for finish 4th), -3 PD points, 17 Stage Points, 27.5 laps led points (55 laps) = 74.5 points
Chris Buecher: 10 points (for finish 27th), 2 PD points = 12 points
Landon Cassill: 7 points (for Finish 30th), 4 PD points = 11 points
Total for the team is 251.5 (according to my model)
Old Fantasy Live Team
Brad Keselowski: 40 points (for finish 1st), 4 PD points, 17 Stage points, 15 Laps led points (30 laps) = 76 points
Kyle Larson: 35 points (for finish 2nd), 4 PD points, 19 Stage Points, 20 laps led points (40 laps) = 78 points
Kasey Kahne: 24 points (for finish 13th), 13 PD points = 37 points
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 21 points (for finish 16th), 12 PD points = 33 points
Cole Whitt: 4 points (for finish 33rd), -1 PD point = 3 points
Total for the old team is 227 points
So I am using Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, Landon Cassill today.
Race Winner: Brad Keselowski
Manufacturer: Toyota (Just in case Joe Gibbs wins today)