JOSH BERRY (STEWART-HAAS RACING) FORD
2023 DRIVER FANTASY POINTS: N/A
2024 FANTASY NASCAR RANK: 22ND
* The 2024 ranking are based on the driver’s projected points scored for the 2024 season and not his predicted finish in the Cup Series standings. The rankings are based on the driver’s performance last year, momentum heading into the 2024 season and the strength of the driver’s team.
2023 RECAP: Josh Berry was a busy driver in 2023. He competed full-time in the Xfinity Series and he ran 10 races in the Cup Series. His 2023 Xfinity Series was disappointing. Berry won three races and made the Championship Four in the Xfinity Series in 2022. Berry failed to win a race last year and he finished 11th in the Xfinity Series Point Standings. Berry filled in for Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman and Noah Gragson in the Cup series. His average starting position was 26.9 and his average finishing position was 21.9 in his 10 races. It wasn’t a great season for Berry in 2023, but it is tough to have success when a driver is bouncing around between cars each week.
2024 PREVIEW: Josh Berry will have some big shoes to fill when he takes over the seat for Kevin Harvick in the No. 4 car. Harvick told Berry to simply be himself and not try to be the driver that he (Harvick) was in the No. 4 car. Harvick understands the pressure that Berry has because Harvick had the same pressure when he was asked to replace Dale Earnhardt Sr. It will be fun to see how Berry works with Rodney Childers and gets his Cup Series career started.
My ranking for Josh Berry will likely be higher than other Fantasy NASCAR websites. 30% of the races are on short tracks this year. These are the tracks where Berry has had his most success at. He is a lock for all fantasy lineups at Dover and he may have value at the other short tracks if Stewart-Haas Racing has the same speed they had in 2023.
SUPERSPEEDWAY VALUE (DAYTONA, TALLADEGA, ATLANTA)
Josh Berry has two races on the Superspeedways on his Cup Series resume. He started 21st and finished 18th while filling in for Chase Elliott at Atlanta. Berry started 29th and finished 22nd while filling in for Noah Gragson at Daytona. Berry had an 8th-place average finishing position at Daytona in the Xfinity Series. His average finishing position at Talladega is 17.2. Atlanta ranked as his best Superspeedway track in the Xfinity Series. Berry finished 2nd, 7th and 19th in his last three races at Atlanta.
Josh Berry will have some fantasy value in season-long leagues at Daytona and Atlanta since the Fords have had an advantage at the Superspeedways. He will be a good value pick in DFS if he qualifies outside the top-25 with a good chance to score place differential points. Berry averaged 29.5 DraftKings Points in his two Superspeedway races last year. That is not too bad for a driver who should be cheap and have low ownership on the Superspeedways.
(Josh Berry is a rookie so he does not have many stats in the Cup Series on the Superspeedways. His average finishing position at these tracks in the Xfinity Series is 19.5 in 16 races)
SHORT-FLAT TRACK VALUE (PHOENIX, RICHMOND, MARTINSVILLE, GATEWAY, NEW HAMPSHIRE, IOWA)
Josh Berry was at his best in the Xfinity Series at the short, flat tracks last year. He finished 3rd and 7th at Richmond, 6th and 8th at Phoenix, 4th and 5th at Martinsville and 9th at Iowa. His worst track is New Hampshire. Berry finished 17th and 31st in his last two races at the Magic Mile.
Josh Berry also competed in two races in the Cup Series on the short, flat tracks last year. He finished 10th at Phoenix and 2nd at Richmond. Both of those races were in the No. 9 car, while filling in for an injured Chase Elliott.
The short, flat tracks are where Josh Berry will have his most fantasy value in 2024. These have been the best tracks for Stewart-Haas Racing and they are the best tracks for Berry too. Richmond is by far his best track, but keep Berry on your fantasy radar at Phoenix, Martinsville and Iowa too. I would recommend fading Berry when the Cup Series races in New Hampshire. He has not figured out the Magic Mile yet.
(Josh Berry is a rookie so he does not have many stats in the Cup Series on the Short, Flat Tracks. His average finishing position at these tracks in the Xfinity Series is 13.1 in 20 races)
HIGH-BANKED TRACK VALUE (BRISTOL, DOVER)
Bristol and Dover are two high-banked, concrete tracks, but it is amazing how different the stats are for Josh Berry at the two tracks. Berry ran three Xfinity Series races at Bristol. His average finishing position in these races is 26th. Berry ran three races at Dover in the Xfinity Series and he finished 2nd, 1st and 2nd. Dover is by far the best track for Berry. Kevin Harvick finished 8 of his last 9 races at Dover in the top-10, so Rodney Childers knows how to set up a car for the Monster Mile. Be sure to include Berry in your season-long and DFS lineups when the Cup Series races at Dover. You can fade Berry in the two races at Bristol this year.
(Josh Berry is a rookie so he does not have many stats in the Cup Series on the High-Banked Tracks. His average finishing position at these tracks in the Xfinity Series is 13.1 in 6 races)
ROAD COURSE TRACK VALUE (COTA, SONOMA, WATKINS GLEN, CHICAGO STREET, CHARLOTTE ROVAL)
Josh Berry is not known for being a strong road course driver, but he is working hard to improve his skills at these tracks. Berry finished 8th at COTA, 4th at Portland, 6th at Road America and 3rd at the Charlotte Roval last year in the Xfinity Series.
The Cup Series race at COTA will be his first road course race for Josh Berry in the Cup Series. There is a big difference in talent between the two series, so I doubt Berry will have much success this year. He is worth a spot in your DFS lineups on the road courses if his price is right and the No. 4 car has speed in practice.
(Josh Berry is a rookie so he does not have many stats in the Cup Series on the Road Course races. His average finishing position at these tracks in the Xfinity Series is 9.9 in 15 races)
HIGH TIRE WEAR TRACK VALUE (AUTO CLUB, DARLINGTON, MICHIGAN, HOMESTEAD)
Josh Berry entered the Xfinity Series as a short track ace, but he has learned how to compete on the larger tracks too. Saving his tires over a long run is something that Berry has excelled at. Berry finished 4th at Auto Club, 5th and 7th at Darlington and 2nd at Michigan in the Xfinity Series. The only track where he has not been very good is at Homestead. His average finishing position in the Xfinity Series at Homestead is 19.5.
Josh Berry had no luck on the high tire wear tracks in the Cup Series last year. He had a flat tire at Michigan that caused Berry to finish 30th. He filled in for Alex Bowman at Darlington and he crashed. I expect Berry to be better with his full-time team. Berry is a driver to have on your fantasy radar at Darlington and Michigan in 2024. I would recommend fading Berry at Homestead.
(Josh Berry is a rookie so he does not have many stats in the Cup Series on the High Tire-Wear Tracks. His average finishing position at these tracks in the Xfinity Series is 11.1 in 15 races)
INTERMEDIATE TRACK VALUE (LAS VEGAS, KANSAS, CHARLOTTE AND TEXAS)
Josh Berry had a lot of success at the intermediate tracks in the Xfinity Series. Junior Motorsports had a clear speed advantage over the field at these tracks last year. It will be just the opposite for Berry in the Cup Series. The cream rises to the top on the 1.5-mile tracks. Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske and Kyle Busch have a history of dominating the top-10 at the intermediate tracks. I expect that trend to continue in 2024. I recommend using a driver from the teams listed above in your season-long leagues. Berry will have some value in DFS at these tracks if the price is low enough.
(Josh Berry is a rookie so he does not have many stats in the Cup Series on the Intermediate Tracks. His average finishing position at these tracks in the Xfinity Series is 11.5 in 16 races)
Best Tracks for Josh Berry: 1) Dover, 2) Michigan, 3) Las Vegas, 4) Charlotte Roval, 5) Richmond
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