HARRISON BURTON (WOOD BROTHERS RACING) FORD
2022 DRIVER FANTASY POINTS: 27th
2023 FANTASY NASCAR RANK: 29TH
* The 2023 ranking are based on the driver’s projected points scored for the 2023 season and not his predicted finish in the Cup Series standings. The rankings are based on the driver’s performance last year, momentum heading into the 2023 season and the strength of the driver’s team. You can read more about the stats that went into creating the Driver Rankings in the 2023 Preview Article.
2022 RECAP: Harrison Burton had a rough rookie season in the Cup Series. It was tough to expect much from the 22-year old driver when he entered the series with only one race in the Cup Series on his resume (Talladega in 2021), he had to learn to race against new drivers and figure out a new car. Burton only had one finish in the top-five (Indy Road Course) and two finishes in the top-10 (Indy Road Course and Atlanta). He scored the 27th most fantasy points, had the 29th best Driver Rating and the 29th best average running position. It was tough to trust Burton in your fantasy lineups, but he is still young enough to learn to be a successful Cup Series driver.
2023 PREVIEW: NASCAR teams typically make changes in the offseason when a driver struggles like Harrison Burton did last year. That will not be the case for the Wood Brothers. Burton will return to drive the No. 21 car and Brian Wilson will once again be his crew chief. The last thing the Wood Brothers needed to do is to ask Burton to learn to work with a new crew chief and work with new engineers in 2023. He is a smart driver who learns quickly. He needs experience more than he needs any changes.
I wanted to rank Harrison Burton higher in my rankings because his sophomore season should be much better than his rookie season. The competition in the Cup Series is tough though, so I have Burton ranked about where he finished last year. My strategy with Burton in 2023 will be to take a “wait and see” approach. He has all of the resources to run well, but I want to see it on the track before I use him in my fantasy lineups. If Burton shows he can consistently finish in the top-20, I will start to use him in DFS contests. It will be hard to trust Burton on any tracks other than the Superspeedways in season-long games (Driver Group Game and Fantasy Live).
SUPERSPEEDWAY VALUE (DAYTONA, TALLADEGA, ATLANTA)
Harrison Burton did not have much success on the large Superspeedway tracks last year. He finished 39th and 19th at Daytona and 34th and 36th at Talladega. The key to scoring well in these races is to avoid the wrecks and finish the races. Burton did not finish any races at Daytona or Talladega last year. It will be a good idea to fade him in season-long games (Driver Group Game and Fantasy Live). He will be worth a spot in your DFS contests if he qualifies outside the top-25 with a chance to score place differential points.
The best Superspeedway track for Harrison Burton was Atlanta. He finished 17th in the first race at Atlanta and 10th in the second race. You can use Burton in your season-long contests at Atlanta if you want to save your allocations with your top drivers for more predictable tracks. I also like Burton in DFS contests at Atlanta if the price is cheap (under $6K) and he qualifies outside the top-20.
(Harrison Burton ranked 28th in fantasy points scored on the Superspeedways last year with an average finishing position of 27.1)
SHORT-FLAT TRACK VALUE (PHOENIX, RICHMOND, MARTINSVILLE, GATEWAY, LOUDON)
I expected Harrison Burton to have some success at the short, flat tracks last year, but that was not the case. Iowa and Phoenix were two of his best tracks in the Xfinity Series. Team Penske and the Wood Brothers cars typically run well at these tracks. Burton also had his father (Jeff Burton) to lean on for advice at the short-flat tracks. It is hard to find a better driver at Loudon than Jeff Burton and he was pretty good at his home tracks in Virginia (Richmond and Martinsville).
Burton had a 23.6 average finishing position in the races on the short, flat tracks last year. That is not going to win you any cash in DFS and it will not move you up in the standings in your season-long fantasy games. Burton is going to get better at these tracks, but it may take another year of experience before he starts running in the top-10. I recommend using other drivers in your Fantasy NASCAR contests when the Cup Series competes on the short, flat tracks in the spring. If Burton runs well in those races, you can feel confident to use him in the races when the Cup Series returns to the tracks in the fall.
(Harrison Burton ranked 25th in fantasy points scored on the short-flat tracks last year with an average finishing position of 23.6)
HIGH-BANKED TRACK VALUE (BRISTOL, DOVER, DARLINGTON)
Harrison Burton had more value in DFS contests than he did in season-long games (Driver Group Game and Fantasy Live) last year on the high-banked tracks. His average finishing position at these tracks was 18.7 and that is not going to win you’re your league in the Driver Group Game or Fantasy Live. Burton had a cheap price and he was good at scoring place differential points at the high-banked tracks in DFS contests. Burton started 35th and finished 24th at Dover, started 25th and finished 14th in the first race at Darlington, started 28th and finished 21st in the second race at Darlington and he started 27th and finished 16th at Bristol. That is an average of 9.5 place differential points per race. Not too bad. Burton is worth a spot in your DFS lineups on the short, flat tracks, but I would fade him in season-long games.
(Harrison Burton ranked 20th in fantasy points scored on the high-banked tracks last year with an average finishing position of 18.7)
ROAD COURSE TRACK VALUE (COTA, SONOMA, WATKINS GLEN, INDY ROAD COURSE, ROAD AMERICA, CHARLOTTE ROVAL)
Harrison Burton had success in the Xfinity Series on the road courses, but that success did not translate into many top-10 finishes in the Cup Series. His best race of the season was his third-place finish at the Indy road course, but that had more to do with cautions at the end of the race than it had to do with his ability to outrun the field. Burton also finished 28th at Sonoma, 22nd at Road America, 28th at Watkins Glen and 28th at the Charlotte Roval. You have a better chance of getting a 28th-place finish from Burton on the Road Courses than you do getting another third-place finish from him. I recommend finding drivers with more consistent stats at the road courses for your Fantasy NASCAR teams in 2023.
(Harrison Burton ranked 18th in fantasy points scored on the road courses last year with an average finishing position of 21st)
HIGH TIRE WEAR TRACK VALUE (AUTO CLUB, DARLINGTON, MICHIGAN, HOMESTEAD)
The secret to success for Harrison Burton in the Xfinity Series was his smooth driving style. He often was able to save his tires over a long run and find his way to the front at the end of the races. He reminded me of Matt Kenseth. That driving style does not work as well in the Gen-7 car in the Cup Series. Drivers must be able to push the cars to edge while saving the tires at the same time. It is easier said than done and it will take Burton a while to figure it out. The good news for Burton is that Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are two of the best drivers in the garage at pushing their cars to the edge while saving the tires. I am sure Burton will work with his Team Penske alliance drivers to improve at the high tire wear tracks in 2023.
Harrison Burton had an average finishing position of 24th on the high tire wear tracks last year. The only track where he had success was at Darlington. Typically “The Track Too Tough to Tame” is a nightmare for rookies, but Burton was able to finish 14th at Darlington. It is still hard to trust Burton at the high tire wear tracks in 2023. I recommend finding drivers with more consistent stats at these tracks.
(Harrison Burton ranked 29th in fantasy points scored on the high tire wear tracks last year with an average finishing position of 24th)
INTERMEDIATE TRACK VALUE (LAS VEGAS, KANSAS, CHARLOTTE AND TEXAS)
Harrison Burton was decent on the intermediate racks, but not good enough to help you in your season-long games (Driver Group Game and Fantasy Live). He finished 16th in the first race at Las Vegas and 26th in the second race in Sin City. He finished 21st and 32nd in the two races at Kansas and 18th at Texas. His best race on an intermediate track was in the longest race of the season. Burton started 17th and finished 11th in the Coca-Cola 600. Charlotte ranked as his best intermediate track in the Xfinity Series so it was not a surprise to see the rookie have success in the Cup Series at Charlotte.
I recommend taking a “wait and see” approach with Harrison Burton on the intermediate tracks. If he runs well at Las Vegas and Kansas in the spring, you can use him in your fantasy lineups when the Cup Series returns to the tracks in the fall. He will also have value at Charlotte in the Coca-Cola 600 as a contrarian pick in DFS contests.
(Harrison Burton ranked 28th in fantasy points scored on the intermediate tracks last year with an average finishing position of 20.6)
Best Tracks for Harrison Burton.: 1) Charlotte, 2) Bristol, 3) Texas, 4) Martinsville, 5) Indy Road Course
*Stats from Fantasy Racing CheatSheet Pro
* Team Information from Jaysky.com
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