The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Dover International Speedway this week for the AAA 400 Drive for Autism. There will be one practice Friday morning followed by qualifying Friday afternoon (3:30 PM ET). Teams will have to practice sessions to dial in their cars Saturday before the race Sunday. The AAA 400 Drive for Autism can be seen Sunday at 2 pm ET on Fox Sports 1.
Martin Truex Jr. won the pole and led the laps in the early portion of the last race at Dover. The race was dominated by two young drivers. Chase Elliott qualified 12th, led 138 laps and finished 2nd. Kyle Larson qualified 3rd and led a race-high 137 laps and finished 5th. Kyle Busch passed Elliott on the last lap of the race to win his 3rd race at the Monster Mile.
Race Rewind at Dover: Apache Warrior 400 (2017)
DraftKings NASCAR Preview
Dover is not technically considered a short track but we need to use or short track strategy this week. This means that dominators will be very important in the AAA 400 Drive for Autism. There are 400 laps in the race and 200 points available for fastest laps and 100 points available for fastest laps. We must capture as many of these bonus points as possible Sunday.
The last four races at Dover have had the same trend. There have been 2 dominators in the race and the fastest laps have been spread out between 10 drivers with the 2 dominators scoring the fastest laps. If the two drivers who lead the most laps also score the fastest laps, it will be VERY important to have these two drivers in your lineup this week regardless what their ownership is.
Top 15 DraftKings Drivers in Last 4 Races at Dover
|
Driver |
Avg. Finish Pos. | Avg.Laps Led | DK Points |
|
1. Martin Truex Jr. |
4.25 | 387 |
90.0 |
|
2. Kyle Larson |
8.5 | 463 | 87.25 |
|
3. Chase Elliott |
3.25 | 138 |
67.5 |
|
4. Jimmie Johnson |
9.0 | 106 | 67.25 |
|
5. Kyle Busch |
12.25 | 151 |
47.75 |
|
6. Kasey Kahne |
11.75 | 0 | 40.25 |
|
7. Brad Keselowski |
14.5 | 95 |
39.25 |
|
8. Kevin Harvick |
19.5 | 117 | 38.25 |
|
9. Daniel Suarez |
7.0 | 0 |
35.0 |
|
10. Clint Bowyer |
18.25 | 0 | 33.5 |
|
11. Ryan Newman |
12.5 | 1 |
33.5 |
|
12. Erik Jones |
13.5 | 0 | 32.5 |
|
13. Joey Logano |
17.0 | 2 |
30.5 |
|
14. Ty Dillon |
22.6 | 27 | 29.75 |
|
15. Michael McDowell |
22.0 | 2 |
28.75 |
The drivers I expect to be the top dominators this week are: Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick
The drivers who could be the top value picks for the race Saturday night include: Daniel Suarez, Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman and Aric Almirola
The drivers I expect to be the best cheap drivers for the race Saturday night include: Kasey Kahne, Darrell Wallace Jr., David Ragan and Michael McDowell
I will post my final DraftKings picks Saturday morning.
Fantasy Live Preview
My Fantasy Live picks survived Taladega and now rank 147th (Top 100%) out of 400,000 entries. I plan to post some great picks this week which should move my picks inside the top 100 overall.
*Pick for the Pole*: Our pick for the pole needs to be in before qualifying at 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday. My pick for the pole will be posted after the first practice Friday (11:30 a.m. ET) on the front page of this website.
**Garage Driver: I have been doing my best to keep everyone informed by using my Twitter account @MrFantasyNASCAR. I will do it again Sunday so make sure you follow me and get all of the information about the cars as I scan the drivers throughout the race.
*** My final picks for Fantasy Live will be posted after the final practice Saturday. I will also post picks for the new NASCAR America Fantasy Live game.
Here are the drivers I have penciled in right now…
5 Starting Drivers
Martin Truex Jr. (6) has been very good at Dover. He has a series-best 1272. Driver ranking and the 2nd-best average finishing position 4.2 in the last 4 races at the Monster Mile. He has also led the 2nd most laps (387) in the races. Truex has qualified on the front row for 3 consecutive races at Dover so he is a great pick for the pole this week. He also has a 2.6 average finishing position in the last 3 races at his home track.
Kyle Larson (6) is my pick to win this week. Larson has never won at Dover but he has finished 2nd, 2nd and 3rd in his last 3 spring races at the track. Larson led the most laps in both races at the Monster Mile last year (241 in the spring and 137 in the fall). He also led the most laps (200) at Bristol last month. Dover ranks as the 3rd-best track for Larson so this will be a great week to use an allocation with him.
Chase Elliott (8) came so close to winning the last race at Dover. He was leading with one lap to go and Kyle Busch passed him on the outside. Elliott has four races at Dover on his resume and he has NEVER finished outside the top 5. His average finishing position at this track is 3.2. He said last year that Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon taught him how to race this track. It looks like they shared all of the secrets with Elliott because he is one of the best now.
Jimmie Johnson (10) must be on every team this week. He has 11 wins at this track! I know Johnson is not the same driver he used to be but Johnson can drive this track in his sleep. He has finished 6 of the last 9 races at the Monster Mile in the TOP 3!!! That is awesome! Johnson won this race last year. I would not be surprised if he was in Victory Lane again Sunday.
Erik Jones (8) only has two races at Dover on his resume and he finished 12th and 15th. Jones actually ran a lot better than where he finished. His average running position is 8th at the Monster Mile. He was involved in a last lap accident in this race last year and that hurt his stats. Joe Gibbs Racing runs very well t this track so I will have Jones on my team this week.
Garage Driver
I plan to have Daniel Suarez (10) in the garage this week. I would love to use an allocation with Suarez and save an allocation with one of my top drivers in my lineup. Dover is the best track for Suarez. He qualified in the top 5 in both races last year and finished 6th and 8th. I would love to get a top-10 finish from Suarez Sunday.
* I would love to use Kyle Busch but I only have 4 allocations with him. I need to save Busch for some of the 1.5 tracks (Kansas, Charlotte, Kentucky and Chicago) later this season.
Bonus Picks
My Bonus Picks will be updated after I see the cars on the track this weekend. Here are my thoughts right now…
Pick for the Pole: Martin Truex Jr.
Stage 1 Winner: Kyle Busch
Stage 2 Winner: Kyle Larson
Race Winner: Kyle Larson
Winning Manufacturer: Chevy
Fantrax Bronze Point Salary Cap Game Preview
My Fantrax Bronze Point Salary Cap picks were red hot until the wreck at the end of the race at Talladega. You cannot cry over that race. That is just how plate racing is. It takes a lot of luck and a little skill to score well at those tracks. Now it is time to bounce back and score well at Dover.
I will evaluate the drivers on this team during the practice sessions this week and try to get as much information as possible to help us win. Here is the lineup I have “penciled in” right now…
Kyle Busch
Kyle Larson
Martin Truex Jr.
Chase Elliott
Ryan Blaney
Clint Bowyer
Aric Almirola
Erik Jones
Alex Bowman
William Byron
*Stats from Driveraverages.com and career stats from Racing-Reference.Info…
If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR
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