The NASCAR Cup Series will join the Xfinity Series at Dover Motor Speedway this weekend. This will be race No. 21 on the Cup Series schedule. That means there are only six races left in the regular season. It is also race No. 20 on the Xfinity Series schedule. There are only seven races left in their regular season. Time is running out for the drivers to secure their spot in the playoffs. We should get two good races at the Monster Mile this weekend.
Here is the schedule for the on-track activity at Dover Motor Speedway….
DOVER PREVIEW
The race at Dover has been moved from May to July on the Cup Series schedule. This is important to know when selecting your Fantasy NASCAR lineup. Dover is a one-mile, high-banked, intermediated track. It is narrow and there is not a lot of room for mistakes. The track will be hotter and slicker this week. I expect more wrecks and move volatility in the race. I still expect the drivers who typically run well at Dover to be the drivers to beat Sunday, but do not be afraid to take a chance with some of the drivers who start in the back in DFS because the slick track could cause a huge wreck on this tough Sunday.
The strategy for this race is different, depending on what Fantasy NASCAR game you are playing. The Fantasy Live regular season ends in six weeks and then the allocations will reset to five. There are only four races left on ovals in the regular season. You want your top drivers for the races at Dover, Indianapolis, Iowa and Richmond. Do not worry about saving allocations in the Fantasy Live game Sunday.
The FanTrax and Speedway Collective games require a different strategy. The allocations do not reset in these games, so you need to use your drivers wisely Sunday. There is enough talent in Group A to get you through the season, but Group B will be tricky in both games. The people who hit the picks right in Group B will post the highest score this week.
FANTASY STATS FOR DOVER
So, how do we handicap Sunday’s race. The Monster Mile is a unique track. I used the data from the three races using the Gen-7 car at Dover, with an emphasis on the race last year. I also used the stats from Bristol, Nashville and Las Vegas this year. The race was moved from May to July, so the track will be hotter and slicker. I gave a slight bump in the rankings to the drivers who are good on slick tracks (mainly the drivers with a dirt-track background).
Here are the stats from three races at Dover Motor Speedway in the Gen-7 car and the races at Bristol, Nashville and Las Vegas this year, sorted by Driver Rating…
EARLY WEEK PICKS FOR DOVER
ONE & DONE PICK: CHASE ELLIOTT
FANTASY LIVE PICKS
FANTRAX PICKS
SPEEDWAY COLLECTIVE
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR DOVER
Here is my early-week, Best Bets for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400…
CHASE ELLIOTT (+1200): Dover is one of the best tracks for Hendrick Motorsports, so I will have a couple of their drivers on my card. Kyle Larson and William Byron are great bets, but their odds are short, so I will wait until this weekend to decide if I want to add them. Elliott is a good bet at 12-1 odds. He won in the Gen-7 car at Dover in 2022 and he finished 5th last year. He also finished 2nd on the high-banked, concrete track in Bristol earlier this season. The No. 9 car has a good chance to win Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN (+1200): The two best tracks for Chastain are Nashville and Dover. Both tracks are similar in size and both have concrete surfaces. Chastain finished 3rd at Dover in 2022 and 2nd in 2023. I will bet Chastain to finish one spot better and win the race Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN (+2200): Bowman has a handful of tracks where he runs well. Dover is one of them. Bowman won at the Monster Mile in 2021, finished 5th in 2022 and 8th last year (he did not compete in 2023 because of a back injury). Bowman won the pole, led 34 laps and finished 9th on the concrete in Bristol. He should have a good chance to win if the No. 48 team brings the same speed to the track this weekend and Bowman catches a break during the race.
* I will update these picks after qualifying this weekend.
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