The NASCAR Cup Series will travel back to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the fifth race in “The Chase.” It is hard to believe that the playoff races will be half-way completed after the race in Sin City. The drivers are running out of time to score the points they need to compete for the championship. We can expect some desperate teams to gamble in Las Vegas to try and hit the Black Jack in the South Point 400. The Cup Series will be joined by the O’Reilly Series this weekend in Las Vegas.
Here is the schedule for the on-track activity at Las Vegas this weekend…
Saturday (Oct 3rd) 1 p.m. ET: O’Reilly Series Practice
Saturday (Oct 3rd) 2 p.m. ET: O’Reilly Series Qualifying
Saturday (Oct 3rd) 3:30 p.m. ET: Cup Series Practice
Saturday (Oct 3rd) 4:30 p.m. ET: Cup Series Qualifying
Saturday (Oct 3rd) 6:30 p.m. ET: O’Reilly Series Race
Sunday (Oct 4th) 4:30 p.m. ET: Cup Series Race
FANTASY STATS FOR LAS VEGAS
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile, intermediate track with a lot of bumps. There are five other 1.5-mile intermediate tracks on the schedule (Kansas, Texas, Charlotte, Chicago and Homestead). We can use the stats from the races at Kansas, Texas, Charlotte and Chicago this year, with an emphasis on the race last weekend at Kansas Speedway. I will also include the stats from the last three races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (2025-2026), so we get some track history factored into the stats.
Here are the stats from the last three races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and the similar tracks this year, sorted by Driver Rating…
LAS VEGAS RACE RACE REWIND
The Cup Series last raced at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March. That was a long time ago and a lot has changed since then, but it never hurts to look back at the drivers who ran up front in Sin City in March.
The Toyota’s dominated the first race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Christopher Bell won the pole, led 31 laps, won Stage 1, finished 3rd in Stage 2 and Bell finished 4th in the race. Denny Hamlin qualified 2nd, led a race-high 134 laps, finished 3rd in Stage 1, 5th in Stage 2 and brought the No. 11 car to Victory Lane. Ty Gibbs qualified 3rd, finished 4th in Stage 1 and Gibbs finished 5th in the race. Bubba Wallace qualified 4th, finished 5th in Stage 1, 4th in Stage 2 and Wallace finished 9th in the race. Tyler Reddick qualified 7th, finished 10th in Stage 1, 6th in Stage 2 and 13th in the race. Your Fantasy NASCAR team scored well at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March if you stacked the Toyota’s in your lineup.
The Hendrick Motorsports cars were not as fast as the Toyota’s, but it was close. William Byron scored 15 Stage Points and finished 3rd. Kyle Larson scored 18 Stage Points and finished 7th. Chase Elliott scored 4 Stage Points and finished 2nd.
Stacking the Toyota’s and the Hendrick Motorsports cars will be the winning strategy this weekend, if the race plays out like it did in March.
The best drivers in the race were: Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Bubba Wallace, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher and Ryan Preece.
You can watch the highlights from the last race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway here: Las Vegas Race Rewind 2026
EARLY WEEK DRIVER RANKINGS
The best way to handicap a race is to look at what has happened on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year. The drivers who consistently finished at the top on these tracks are at the top of my driver rankings this week. The extra track time in practice has allowed the Chevy’s to close the gap on the Toyota’s. I used the stats from all of the races on the intermediate tracks this year and gave a bump in the rankings to the drivers who finished up front last week in Kansas.
Here is the early week Driver Rankings for the race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway….
* These rankings will be updated after the qualifying session is completed Sunday Morning.
STRATEGY FOR LAS VEGAS
FANTASY LIVE: The cream typically rises to the top at the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks because the teams need the perfect balance of speed and down-force in their cars. The race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is the second of three consecutive races on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks (Charlotte is next on the schedule). The drivers who ran well at Kansas, typically run well in Las Vegas and Charlotte. We will likely burn through our top drivers in the next three races, but that is OK. These are the easiest races to predict, so we need to use our top drivers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
SEASON LONG GAMES: The Toyota’s dominated the first race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. I expect the Toyota’s to be be fast again, but do not be afraid to use some of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers too. They had some speed in Las Vegas in March and they have only gotten better since that race. I would not worry about saving allocations in the Driver Group Game, FanTrax and Speedway Collective games this week. I would be shocked if the top-10 has more than one of two non-Chase drivers in the top-10 at the end of the race Sunday.
DFS GAME STRATEGY: The race Sunday is scheduled for 267 laps (400 Miles). That means there are 66.75 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points available for fastest laps (186.9 dominator points). The trend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is for one driver to lead roughly 130 laps and scores roughly 66 fastest laps (62.2 dominator points). A second driver leads roughly 60 laps and scores roughly 15 fastest laps (21.75 dominator points). We need to find these two drivers for our lineup Sunday. We will not be able to finish first in our contests without the nearly 85 dominator points that these two drivers are projected to score.
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR LAS VEGAS
Each week I like to look at the odds when they are released to see if any of the drivers seem to be miss-priced compared to the stats. I picked the drivers I like the most right now because their odds will not be as good as they are now if they unload with a lot of speed in practice and they qualified up front.
Here is my early week Best Bets for the South Point Casino 400…
I really think the Hollywood Casino 400 will be a battle between Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin, so I am taking 80% of my bankroll (40% on each driver) and using it on Larson and Hamlin.
KYLE LARSON (+410 FD): Larson sleep-walked through the regular season, but he has woken up in the playoffs. He finished 5th at Darlington, won the race at Gateway, finished 2nd at Bristol and destroyed the field last weekend in Kansas. So, how has Larson been at Las Vegas Motor Speedway? He has finished 1st or 2nd in 4 of the last 7 races in Sin City. Larson has a great chance to add another win to his 2026 Chase Resume.
DENNY HAMLIN (+400 DK): How can you not have Hamlin in your card this weekend? He finished 1st, 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd and 3rd on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year (2.7). He also finished 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st and 3rd in Total Speed at these tracks (1.7 average total speed rank). Hamlin won the last two races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and he is a series threat to make it three in a row Sunday.
* I will add a driver or two the odds are updated Sunday morning.
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