The 2024 NASCAR Cup Season has made its way to the final race of the season. It is now time to crown the 2024 champions, but before I get into the preview for the championship race, I want to say THANK YOU!!! My goal every year is to provide you the best picks and teach you a little bit about how to be a better Fantasy NASCAR player. I appreciate you giving me the chance to be your “Fantasy NASCAR Crew Chief.” The 2024 season is almost complete and I already cannot wait for the 2025 season. Now onto Phoenix…
PHOENIX SCHEDULE
This is Championship Weekend and that means NASCAR needs a championship schedule. All three series will have a 55-minute practice sessions and then they will be able to make adjustments before qualifying the next day. This is how the schedule used to be and it is refreshing to see this schedule back for the races at Phoenix.
Here is the schedule for the races at the Phoenix this weekend…
RACE RECAP AT PHOENIX
The Toyota’s had a really good race at Phoenix in March. Denny Hamlin won the pole and Ty Gibbs qualified second. The Toyota’s led 298 of the 312 laps and they scored 69 of the 80 possible Stage Points. The only non-Toyota to lead laps in the race was Todd Gilliland who led 14 laps do to pit strategy. The top-five Driver Ratings in the race were all Toyota’s: 1. Christopher Bell 125.1, 2. Tyler Reddick 121.8, 3. Ty Gibbs 118.1, 4. Martin Truex Jr. 115.3, 5. Denny Hamlin 111.7. The other manufactures will need to find some speed this weekend if they want to keep up with the Toyota’s at Phoenix.
The best drivers earlier this year at Martinsville included Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher and Chase Elliott
Stage 1 Results: 1. Tyler Reddick, 2. Ty Gibbs, 3. Denny Hamlin, 4. Erik Jones, 5. Chase Elliott, 6. William Byron, 7. Ryan Blaney, 8. Michael McDowell, 9. Chase Briscoe, 10. Martin Truex Jr.
Stage 2 Results: 1. Christopher Bell, 2. Tyler Reddick, 3. Denny Hamlin, 4. William Byron, 5. Martin Truex Jr., 6. Ryan Blaney, 7. Chase Elliott, 8. Noah Gragson, 9. Brad Keselowski, 10. Chris Buescher
Click here for highlights of the last race at Homestead: Phoenix Race Rewind (March, 2024)
CHAMPIONSHIP FOUR BREAKDOWN
So, who is going to win the Bill France Cup Sunday at Phoenix? Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, William Byron and Tyler Reddick will compete for the championship Sunday. I do not think these are the four best drivers in 2024, but the best teams do not make it to the Super Bowl and World Series each year. I think we can all agree there are problems with the playoff format, but that is a conversation for another day. We just need to break down this race using the drivers who are left in the playoffs.
TYLER REDDICK: Reddick won the regular season championship and then he went into a slump in the first two rounds of the playoffs. A win at Homestead may be what the No. 45 team needs to win their first Cup Series Championship. They had an extra week to prepare their car for this race. Reddick led 68 laps and finished 10th at Phoenix in March. He also led 8 laps and finished 3rd at Richmond in August. The Toyota’s dominated the race at Phoenix in March. I expect the Toyota’s to have the best speed Sunday, race to the front and then block for Reddick, just like the Chevy’s did at Martinsville. Reddick is my pick to win Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO: “Big Game Joey” is back in the Championship Four. That should not surprise anyone. Logano made the Championship Four in 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and now 2024. Maybe he should be called “Even Year Joey.” His stats on the short, flat tracks are not as good as the other drivers racing for a championship, but it is hard to bet against Logano Sunday. He has a habit of performing his best when the big trophy in on the line. I like Logano a lot if the race Sunday turns into a fuel-mileage race.
RYAN BLANEY: Blaney limped into the playoffs last year, got hot in the final two rounds and then won his first Cup Series Championship. Can he win back-to-back championships this week? Iowa Speedway is similar to Phoenix and Blaney will need the same speed he had in the land of corn, in the desert this week. Blaney led 201 of the 350 laps and went to Victory Lane in Iowa. He won Martinsville last year and then went on to win the championship. Blaney won at Martinsville last week. Can he repeat what he did last year? The No. 12 car will definitely be one of the cars to beat at Phoenix.
WILLIAM BYRON: Could this be the race when people finally start looking at Byron as one of the top-three drivers in the sport? It seems like Byron takes a back-seat to his teammate Kyle Larson and he does not get talked about as much as Denny Hamlin or Christopher Bell. Byron has the talent to beat any driver on any track. He competed in the Championship Four for the first time last year. Byron finished 3rd in the standings after that race. That experience should help him be more confident to win it all Sunday. Byron won at Martinsville and he finished 2nd at Iowa. His pit crew will likely need to win him the race Sunday. They have been one of the best this year.
FANTASY STATS FOR PHOENIX
I will use the stats from the last race (March 2024) at Phoenix to help handicap this race. The drivers who perform well in the spring, typically perform well in the fall. I will also use the stats from the races at New Hampshire, Iowa and the Richmond this summer. Most of the teams use the August race at Richmond as a practice race for Phoenix. We can learn a lot by looking at the drivers who were fast at Richmond.
Here are the Driver Ratings for the drivers on the last two races at Phoenix and the last three races on the short, flat tracks this season (New Hampshire, Iowa and Richmond)…
EARLY WEEK PICKS FOR PHOENIX
ONE & DONE PICK: BRAD KESELOWSKI
DRIVER GROUP GAME PICKS: RAYN BLANEY, CHRISTOPHER BELL, JOEY LOGANO, BRAD KESELOWSKI, ROSS CHASTAIN, BUBBA WALLACE, CARSON HOCEVAR, NOAH GRAGSON
FANTASY LIVE PICKS: RYAN BLANEY, JOEY LOGANO, TYLER REDDICK, CHRISTOPHER BELL, DENNY HAMLIN GARAGE: KYLE LARSON
* The Playoff Drivers WILL EARN Stage Points this year in Fantasy Live
** I will update these picks this weekend.
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