The NASCAR Cup Series will join the Xfinity Series at Sonoma Raceway this weekend. The Cup Series has seven races left until the playoffs start and the Xfinity Series 8 races left in their regular season. Time is running out on the drivers who are not locked into a playoff spot. This sense of urgency should create some risky pit strategies and some good racing in wine country.
Here is the schedule for the on-track activity at Sonoma Raceway….
2024 SONOMA RACE REWIND
The biggest difference between the road course race at Sonoma in 2025 and the race last year is that Shane van Gisbergen was not in the field in 2024. SVG won the Xfinity Series race at Sonoma last year, so this is not his first rodeo at Sonoma.
The race last year at Sonoma was not too exciting. The Joe Gibbs Racing cars had a lot of problems in Stage 1. Denny Hamlin blew up, Martin Truex Jr. was spun out by Will Brown and Ty Gibbs ran into the wall. Tyler Reddick led 35 laps (the most in the race), won Stage 1 and finished 8th. Chris Buescher stayed out to win Stage 2. Buescher led 32 laps (second-most in the race) and finished 3rd. Kyle Larson drove through the field in the final Stage. Larson led 19 laps and went to Victory Lane. Other drivers who looked good in the race were Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Busch, Michael McDowell and Ross Chastain.
Here are the highlights of the Toyota Save Mart 350 in 2024: Sonoma Race Rewind
SONOMA PREVIEW
I found a stat that really surprised me when I did my research for the race Sunday. Only three drivers in the field have a win at Sonoma. Kyle Larson has two wins, Kyle Busch has two wins and Daniel Suarez has one win. The other wins over the last 10 years were by Martin Truex Jr. (4 wins) and Juan Pablo Montoya (1 win). There is a good chance we get a new driver in Victory Lane Sunday because Shane van Gisbergen is in the race Sunday. SVG has a good chance of adding his name to the list of drivers who were drinking the wine in Victory Lane in Northern California.
Chris Buescher leads the Cup Series with an average finishing position of 3rd in the Gen-7 car in Sonoma. Buescher finished all three races in the top-five. Michael McDowell has an average finishing position of 4th and Chase Elliott has an average finishing position of 5th in the Gen-7 car in Sonoma. Daniel Suarez leads the Cup Series with 47 laps led in the Gen-7 car in Sonoma and Joey Logano leads the Cup Series with 30 Stage Points in the three Gen-7 car races in Sonoma.
FANTASY STATS FOR SONOMA
So, how do we handicap the race at Sonoma? Shane van Gisbergen did not compete in the Cup Series race in Sonoma last year. We can pencil SVG into the No. 1 spot in the stats and then figure out who is going to finish second. Experience means a lot at Sonoma, so I used the data from the three races in the Gen-7 car at Sonoma for the rankings this week. I also added in the data from the three races on the road courses this year. This should give us an idea of which drivers will run up front in the Toyota Save Mart 350 Sunday.
Here are the stats from three races at Sonoma and the three races on the road courses in 2025, sorted by Driver Rating…
EARLY WEEK PICKS FOR SONOMA
ONE & DONE PICK: KYLE BUSCH
FANTASY LIVE PICKS
FANTRAX PICKS
SPEEDWAY COLLECTIVE
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR SONOMA
I typically post my Best Bets in this portion of the article but I am tired of losing money on the road courses. The chances of any driver beating Shane van Gisbergen Sunday are slim. We cannot bet SVG at +140 and expect to win any money. I am going to wait and see how practice and qualifying plays out Saturday. If something happens to SVG or if another drivers really looks good (Kyle Larson could be that driver), then I will make a bet. If SVG goes out and dominates practice and wins the pole for the race, I will sit this one out and save my money for Dover next week.
If you really want to make some early week bets, you can take a chance with MICHAEL MCDOWELL (+1100), CHASE ELLIOTT (+1400) and CHRIS BUESCHER (+1400) and TYLER REDDICK (+1400)
* I will update these picks this weekend.
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