NASCAR Cup Series joins the O’Reilly Series and the Truck Series at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. This will be the third race for the Cup Series on a 1.5-mile, intermediate track (Las Vegas and Kansas are the other two.) The teams have more notes to work with, so it will be interesting to see if any new teams make their way to the front of the pack Sunday. Joe Gibbs Racing (Denny Hamlin), Hendrick Motorsports (Kyle Larson) and Team Penske (Ryan Blaney) just tested at Chicagoland Speedway. This is another 1.5-mile, intermediate track. Did these teams learn anything that they can bring back to help their manufacturer at Texas? It should be fun to see how it all plays out in “The Lone Star State.”
TEXAS SCHEDULE
It is nice to have all three series back for a full weekend of racing. The Truck Series will be on the track first. They will practice and qualify for the SpeedyCash.com 250 Friday afternoon and then they will race Friday night.
The O’Reilly Series will also be on the track Friday. “The Series Where Names Are Made” will practice and qualify Friday evening and then race Saturday afternoon.
The Cup Series will practice and qualify for the Wurth 400 Saturday morning and then they will race Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
FANTASY STATS FOR TEXAS
NASCAR took away a race from Texas Motor Speedway following the 2022 season. The Cup Series only races at Texas once a year, so we do not have as much data for this race as we do at the other 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks. We can still use the stats from the last three races at Texas Motor Speedway (2023-2025) and combine it with the stats from the two races on the 1.5-mile intermediate tracks this year (Las Vegas and Kansas). This should give us an idea of which drivers are good at Texas and which have had speed on similar tracks in 2026.
Here are the stats from the last three races at Texas Motor Speedway and the races at Las Vegas and Kansas this year, sorted by Driver Ranking…
TEXAS RACE REWIND
Carson Hocevar and William Byron started on the front row for the Wurth 400 last year. Hocevar took the early lead and drove away from the field. He posted the fastest laps on the first 20 laps of the race. Noah Gragson spun out on lap 21 and this shook up the field. Austin Cindric then took over the lead. The No. 11 car for Denny Hamlin blew up on lap 76. That took one of the best cars out of the race. Christopher Bell had a speeding penalty and Chase Briscoe spun out at the end of Stage 1. Joe Gibbs Racing did not get off to a good start at Texas last year.
The race was filled with cautions for flat tires and drivers spinning out while going over the bumps in turns 1 and 2. 73 of the 271 laps were run under caution. This allowed six drivers to lead at least 19 laps and 13 drivers to lead laps in the race. It was a very ugly race. It almost had to be a crazy race for Joey Logano to win at an intermediate track.
The best cars in the Wurth 400 last year were Kyle Larson, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Carson Hocevar and Joey Logano
You can watch the highlights of last year’s race here: 2025 Wurth 400
EARLY WEEK DRIVER RANKINGS
I typically look forward to the races on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks because they are the easiest to predict. That is not the case in Texas. This track is the most chaotic of the intermediate tracks. The bumps on this track usually cause a lot of cautions. We must look at the stats from Texas Motor Speedway and from the intermediate tracks in 2026 and pick the drivers who have had the most speed. After that, we will need a lot of luck because even the fastest cars blow up (Denny Hamlin last year), get penalties (Christopher Bell last year) or crash (Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, Carson Hocevar, Brad Keselowski and more last year….).
Here is the early week Driver Rankings for the Wurth 400….
* These rankings will be updated after all of the practice sessions are completed and the field is set for the race.
STRATEGY FOR TEXAS
SEASON-LONG GAME STRATEGY: The stats for Texas suggest taking a chance with some of the drivers who typically do not run up front on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks because there is so much chaos at Texas Motor Speedway. We saw Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon and John H. Nemechek all finish in the top-10 at Texas last year. The problem is predicting which lower-tier driver will be good picks this week because they need a lot of luck in order to finish up front. I’m using the stats and picking the drivers who typically run well on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks. If Joey Logano wins the race and people beat me with the No. 22 car in their lineup, I can live with that easier that fading Kyle Larson and then watching him dominate most of the Wurth 400.
DFS GAME STRATEGY: The chaos at Texas Motor Speedway brings more drivers into play Sunday. There are typically five dominators in this race (Drivers who lead over 30 laps). The trend is for five drivers who start outside the top-15, finish the race inside the top-10. My goal in my DFS Contest this week is to find at least three of the dominators and three of the drivers who start outside the top-15 and finish in the to-10. This has been the winning combination at Texas and I expect that trend to continue this weekend.
EARLY WEEK BEST BETS FOR TEXAS
I like to look at the odds early in the week and see if there are any drivers who are mispriced. I like to bet on these drivers before they get on the track for practice or qualifying and then we lose these odds. I am not suggesting that these drivers are the best picks in the field, but they are worth some a few bucks to return a nice profit.
WILLIAM BYRON (10-1): It has been a slow start for the No. 24 team this year. Byron sits 11th in the Point Standings, but the good news is that he has been good on the 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year. Byron finished 3rd in Las Vegas and 7th at Kansas. Texas Motor Speedway ranks as his best intermediate track. Byron won at Texas in 2023 and finished 3rd in 2024. His 6th-place average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Texas is the best in the field. He is a good bet at 10-1 odds Sunday.
CHRISTOPHER BELL (10-1): There is a lot to like about Bell this weekend. He finished 4th in Los Vegas and he had a great chance to win at Kansas until Tyler Reddick got into him in the final laps of that race. The races at Texas Motor Speedway tend to be filled with cautions. That means there will be a lot of pit stops. That favors Bell, because he has the best pit crew in the sport. His car should be fast enough to win too. A Toyota has not been to Victory Lane at Texas Motor Speedway since 2019 (Kyle Busch). I would not be surprised if that trend ends Sunday with the No. 20 car in Victory Lane.
CHASE ELLIOTT (12-1): Elliott loves to stack top-10 finishes on the intermediate tracks, but Texas Motor Speedway is a track where he can win. Elliott finished 2nd in Las Vegas and 8th at Kansas this year. He also won at Texas Motor Speedway in 2024. Kyle Larson tested at Chicagoland Speedway last week. I am sure the No. 5 team brought back some information from that 1.5-mile, intermediate track to help William Byron and Elliott get to Victory Lane. I like the chance for the Hendrick Motorsports cars to win the Wurth 400.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (35-1): Could Texas Motor Speedway be the track where Keselowski ends his 69-race winless streak? He has not won a race since Darlington in 2024. That could change Sunday. Keselowski has finished 28th (flat tire), 2nd, 7th, 8th, 9th, 4th, 2nd, 6th and 9th in his last nine races at Texas Motor Speedway. He also finished 10th in Las Vegas and 6th at Kansas earlier this year. Keselowski just needs to qualify better and he should have a great chance to win. 35-1 odds for a driver with his stats at Texas Motor Speedway is an absolute steal.
* I will add a one or two drivers to the card that I think are Best Bets after qualifying Saturday.
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