MENCS: Garage Talk Notes for Charlotte Roval

The last round of the MENCS Playoffs is already here. Drivers will be desperate to do whatever it takes to advance to the Round of 12. The inaugural Charlotte Roval race was one of the most exciting on the 2018 schedule. There is no reason to think the race this week will be any different. The Bank of America Roval 400 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.

* I was not available Saturday to scan the radios for information and I will not be able to talk to my contacts at the tract about the cars until late Saturday night. I will factor the information I receive into the picks this week, but I will not be able to include it in the Garage Talk Notes.

Track Notes

The cars will have the 750 HP engines with the 2” splitter and 8” spoiler this week. It is almost the same package they had at this track last year. I expect the cars to handle the same (on the edge) as what we saw in the Bank of America Roval 400 in 2018.

Stats from Road Course Tracks in 2019
Diver	Avg. Finish	Laps Led	Driver Rating
1. Martin Truex Jr.	1.5	60	137.3
2. Chase Elliott	19.0	83	122.4
3. Denny Hamlin	4.0	4	111.0
4. Kyle Busch	6.5	3	105.7
5. Ryan Blaney	4.0	2	103.6
6. Erik Jones	6.0	0	100.0
7. Matt DiBenedetto	5.0	0	99.0
8. Kevin Harvick	6.5	0	98.5
9. Kyle Larson	9.0	6	92.1
10. Kurt Busch	11.5	0	86.4
11. Brad Keselowski	13.5	0	84.1
12. Aric Almirola	10.5	0	80.4
13. Alex Bowman	14.0	0	79.7
14. Jimmie Johnson	15.5	0	77.8
15. William Byron	20.0	21	77.0
16. Clint Bowyer	15.5	0	75.9
17. Chris Buescher	14.5	0	75.4
18. Ryan Newman	16.0	0	72.9
19. Ricky Stenhouse	18.0	0	69.4
20. Joey Logano	23.0	0	69.3
21. Daniel Suarez	17.0	0	69.3
22. Michael McDowell	20.5	0	64.6
23. Paul Menard	20.0	3	62.8
24. David Ragan	21.0	0	55.2
25. Daniel Hemric	25.0	0	54.9

* Short, Flat Tracks Include: Sonoma, Watkins Glen and Charlotte Roval

Driver Notes

Chase Elliott: Elliott has been the 2^nd-best driver on the road courses behind Martin Truex Jr. Elliott won the last 2 races at Watkins Glen, finished 6^th at the Charlotte Roval last year and 4^th at Sonoma in 2018. He currently sits 35 points above the cut line for the playoffs so the No. 9 team simply needs a good point’s day. I expect Elliott to spend a lot of time in the top 10, score a lot of Stage points and finish in the top 5 Sunday. Elliott is a great play for DFS since he starts 19^th and has the opportunity to score a lot of place differential points.

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson finished 8^th in the Charlotte Roval race last year. He was running down Martin Truex Jr. on the last lap and decided to race him aggressively for the win, instead of taking the points to advance to round 2. Both cars spun out and Johnson finished outside the top 5. He said he wants to win a race before the end of the 2019 season. This is his best chance to get back to Victory Lane. Johnson finished 12^th at Sonoma and 19^th at Watkins Glen, but he always seems to run well at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Johnson spun out in final practice and hit the wall. The team is going to “try” and repair the car. If they can, Johnson will start 4^th. If they go to a backup car, Johnson will start in the back and be scored from the 4^th spot in Fantasy NASCAR.

Alex Bowman: Bowman qualified 3^rd, scored Stage points in both Stages and finished 4^th at the Charlotte Roval last year. Bowman currently sits 2 points below the cutoff line for the playoffs so he must have a top 10 finish Sunday. Bowman is one of the best drivers at using the simulator to produce up-front finishes in the race. I expect him to spend a lot of time at Hendrick Motorsports this week trying to figure out an advantage at this tricky track Sunday. Bowman has a 14^th place average finishing position on the road courses in 2019. He spun his car in final practice and hit the wall. Bowman will go to a backup car, start from the back and be scored from the 2^nd spot. That makes him useless in DFS this week.

William Byron: Byron has competed in 5 road course race in the MENCS in his career. His average finishing position is 21.4. Last year he qualified 21^st and finished 34^th in the Charlotte Roval race. Byron at the cut line for the playoffs. The drivers below the cut line (Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Alex Bowman and Erik Jones) have had a lot more success on the road courses than Byron. Byron spent a lot of time in the simulator and working with Jeff Gordon this week to prepare for this race. It paid off since he starts from the pole. He should lead some laps but it will be hard for him to stay up front.

Kyle Larson: Larson is the driver to beat this week if we go off of the stats from the inaugural race at the Charlotte Roval. Larson qualified 5^th, won Stage 1, finished 9^th in Stage 2, led a race high 47 laps and had a race best 123.6 Driver Rating in the Bank of America Roval 400 last year. He is by far the best driver at qualifying on the road courses but his car typically does not have the long run speed to win the race. Expect Larson to perform well at the beginning of the race and fade at the end.

Kurt Busch: Busch dug himself a hole after two poor performances in the first two races of the playoffs. The No.1 team sits 14 points below the cut line. Busch has the talent to score Stage points and finish up front, so the 14 point deficit is not a death sentence. Busch finished 5^th in the Charlotte Roval race last year, 13^th at Sonoma and 10^th at Watkins Glen. Busch missed a corner in qualifying so he will start 23^rd. The No. 1 car should score a lot of place differential points and be a good pick for your DFS lineups.

Kevin Harvick: Harvick has been a top-10 machine on the road courses but he has not won as many races as he should have. Harvick has finished every road course race over the last two seasons in the top 10 with a 6.8 average finishing position. Last year Harvick qualified 19^th and finished 9^th in the Charlotte Roval race. He starts 6^th so he will be a good pick in season long games and good pivot from Martin Truex Jr. in DFS contests.

Clint Bowyer: The pressure is on Bowyer this week but that is nothing new. He has been below or at the cutoff line for the final playoff spot for the last month. Bowyer is only 4 points back so he simply needs Stage points and a good finish Sunday in order to advance. Bowyer qualified 7^th, scored 12 Stage points and finished 3^rd in the Charlotte Roval race last year. He starts 5^th Sunday so he needs to keep his track position for as long as he can.

Daniel Suarez: Suarez has a lot or road course racing in his background. He even raced Volkswagens on the road courses in Mexico. If he can wheel a Volkswagen around a course he should be able to drive a well-tuned stockcar in the race. Suarez finished 17^th in both road course races this year. He also finished 21^st in the inaugural Charlotte Roval race. He needs to find more speed to finish in the top 10 Sunday. Suarez missed the chicane 3 times in practice. That could be a problem Sunday.

Aric Almirola: Almirola currently sits 1 point above the cutoff line for the final playoff spot. The drivers on the outside have a lot better stats on the road courses so he is going to need to have one of his best races this week. Almirola finished 9^th at Sonoma and 12^th at Watkins Glen this year. He only finished 19^th last year in the Charlotte Roval race. Almirola is typically a top-15 driver on the road courses and that probably will not cut it if he wants to advance to the Round of 12.

Brad Keselowski: Keselowski had one of the best cars at the Charlotte Roval race last year but the results do not show it. Keselowski qualified 29^th and slowly made his way to the front. He led the second-most laps (29) before he led the field into the Tums Heartbreak Turn wall after the restart. He has been “OK” on the road courses in 2019. Keselowski finished 9^th at Watkins Glen and 18^th at Sonoma. Keselowski qualified 11^th and his car had top-10 speed in practice. Keselowski is a good pick in season long and DFS contests Sunday.

Joey Logano: Logano is 48 points above the cutoff line for the final playoff spot and that is a good thing for him. Logano has not been great on the road courses over the last three years. His average finishing position on the road courses since the start of the 2017 season is 21.1. The good news is that his best road course finish in those three seasons happened at the Charlotte Roval last year. Logano qualified 15^th and finished 10^th last year. It looks like he learned something about this track. Logano qualified 3^rd and most of his laps were in the top 5 in practice. He is a risky pick in season long games but his low ownership should make him a good DFS pick.

Ryan Blaney: Blaney won the inaugural Charlotte Roval race. That has to have him fired up to show that his trip to Victory Lane last year was not a fluke. Blaney has been good on the road courses this year. He finished 3^rd at Sonoma and 5^th at Watkins Glen. That gives Blaney a 3^rd-place average finishing position in the last 3 road course races. Blaney is only 6 points above the cutoff line for the playoffs, while his teammates are almost locked into the Round of 12. I expect Team Penske Racing to give Blaney the best car they have so he can finish up front Sunday.

Paul Menard: Menard has not been very good on the road courses in his career. He has a 22.6 average starting position and a 20.7 average finishing position in his last 10 road course races. Menard qualified 22^nd, had a 26.7 average running position and finished 33^rd in the Charlotte Roval race last year. Menard qualified 10^th but I am not so sure he can finish in the top 10.

Kyle Busch: It is no secret that Busch is good on every type of track. He has consistently finished in the top 5 on the road courses but he has not been to Victory Lane in the recent races. The last time Busch won on a road course was at Sonoma in 2015 (11 races ago). He does have 9 finishes in the top 7 in those races though. The Charlotte Roval was not kind to Busch last year. He qualified 14^th, only scored 3 Stage points, did not lead any laps and finished 32^nd (Crashed when he followed Brad Keselowski into the wall). Busch is already locked into the Round of 12. The No. 18 team will be in a checkers or wreckers mode Sunday. Busch spun and hit the wall in the 2^nd practice. His car only had slight damage.

Erik Jones: The No. 20 car failed inspection last week so Jones did not receive any points for the race at Richmond. That leaves the No. 20 team in a huge hole. Jones is 45 points below the cut line for the playoffs so he is in a must win situation. Jones finished 4 of his last 5 races on the road courses in the top 10 so he knows how to run up front. He finished 4^th at Watkins Glen and 8^th at Sonoma so he has the talent to run up front on the road courses. Jones starts 15^th so he will be a good pick for your DFS lineup Sunday.

Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has a series-best 7.2 average finishing position on the road courses over the last 3 seasons. He finished 3^rd at Watkins Glen and 5^th at Sonoma earlier this year. Hamlin qualified 27^th and finished 12^th in the Charlotte Roval race last year. Hamlin was having one of his worst seasons last year and he is having one of his best seasons in 2019. I expect a lot better results from the No. 11 team Sunday. Hamlin wrecked his car in Friday’s practice. The No. 11 team will go to a backup car, start from the back and be scored from his qualifying position (28^th) in Fantasy NASCAR. Hamlin should be locked into all Cash Contest lineups for DFS this week.

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex has been a beast on the road courses. He finished 2^nd, 1^st, 14^th, 2^nd, 1^st and 1^st in his last 6 road course races. His 14^th place finish was at the Charlotte Roval last year when he was leading on the last lap and got spun out by Jimmie Johnson. If Truex would have won that race his average finishing position in his last 6 road courses races would have been 1.7. Does it get any better than that? To say Truex has a good chance to sweep the races in Round 1 of the Playoffs is an understatement. Truex does have his work cut out for him on Sunday. Truex missed a shift and blew the engine. The No. 19 team changed the engine and will start from the back. Truex will be scored from the 8^th starting spot. Truex told NBC, “We will likely give up the Stage points so we can get the track position to win the race.”

Matt DiBenedetto: DiBenedetto has the 3^rd-best average finishing position on the road courses this year and the 8^th-best Driver Rating. DiBenedetto finished 4^th at Sonoma and 6^th at Watkins Glen. He also finished 13^th in the Charlotte Roval race last year and that was in a GO FAS RACING Ford. I am sure his Leavine Family Racing Toyota will have a lot more speed and give DiBenedetto a chance to win the race Sunday. DiBenedetto qualified 18^th so he has a good chance to score some place differential points for your DFS lineups.

Daniel Hemric: Hemric raced in the Charlotte Roval race last year in a 3^rd car for Richard Childress Racing. He qualified 11^th and finished 23^rd. This year Hemric finished 15^th at Sonoma and 35^th at Watkins Glen. He will probably be better than his teammate (Austin Dillon) but not good enough to finish inside the top 15 Sunday. Hemric qualified 20^th and he should finish around the 20^th position at Charlotte.

Austin Dillon: Road courses are to Dillon what Kryptonite is to Superman. Dillon has a 22.7 average starting position and a 27.7 average finishing position in his last 10 road course races. Last year he qualified 24^th and finished 39^th in the Charlotte Roval race. There are much safer options for your fantasy team this week.

Ty Dillon: Ty is not much better than Austin on the road course tracks. He has competed in 7 road course races in his MENCS career. His average starting position is 29.1 and his average finishing position is 26^th. Dillon qualified 26^th and finished 22^nd in the inaugural Charlotte Roval race. He will need a major wreck at the front of the field in order to finish in the top 15 Sunday.

Chris Buescher: Buescher spent a lot of time working with AJ Allmendinger on his road course skills when Allmendinger was his teammate. He learned a lot. Buescher has a 14.8 average finishing position in his last 6 road course races. Buescher qualified 10^th and finished 17^th in the Charlotte Roval race last year. It would probably be a good idea to save him for the oval tracks in the Driver Group Game, but he could be a good play in DFS. I expect Buescher to finish in the top 15 Sunday

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse has not been very good on the road courses in his career. He has a 22.4 average starting position and a 26.3 average finishing position in his last 10 races on the road courses. Stenhouse qualified 23^rd and finished 37^th in the Charlotte Roval race last year. He did finish 15^th at Watkins Glen this season so there is some hope for him, but do not get too excited about the no. 17 car Sunday. Stenhouse qualified 21^st and he should finish between 20^th – 25^th Sunday.

Ryan Newman: Newman has been overachieving for over a month so he should out-produce his stats Sunday. Newman has been an “OK” road course racer in his career. He has a 20.6 average starting position and a 16.5 average finishing position in his last 10 road course races. He did finish 11^th in the Charlotte Roval race last year so he should have a good chance for a top-10 finish Sunday. I like him a lot more in DFS this week than I do in season long games.

Micheal McDowell: McDowell had kidney stones Friday and was taken to the hospital. He passed the stones and will be OK for the race Sunday. McDowell grew up racing in the Rolex Grand-Am Sports Car Series. That experience has translated into some success on the road courses in the Cup Series. McDowell has a 19^th-place average finishing position in his last 4 road course races. That is not bad for him. McDowell finished 18^th in the inaugural Charlotte Roval race. He is a good cheap option in DFS this week if he qualifies outside the top 20.

Parker Kligerman: Kligerman wrecked his car in Friday’s practice. He will go to a backup car, start from the back and be scored from his qualifying position Sunday. His team choose not to qualify the car on Friday so Kligerman will start 40^th Sunday. He is the best punt play in DFS at Charlotte.

Favorites to win Sunday: Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowsi and Denny Hamlin

Good Sleeper Picks: Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Erik Jones, Chris Buescher, Matt DiBenedetto, Ryan Preece and Michael McDowell

MENCS Final Practice Speeds