The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to the Lone Star State this weekend for some road course racing at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA). This will be the fifth race for the Cup Series at COTA, but this race will not be like the others. NASCAR is moving the race from the 3.4-mile track to the 2.3-mile National Course at COTA. This is going to change the race up a bit from what we have seen in the past at COTA. It will be interesting to see if this is a good or bad change for the Cup Series. The EchoPark Texas Grand Prix can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had two 20-minutes practice sessions to shake down their cars for Sunday’s race. Most of the cars made at least five-lap runs in practice, so we were able to see which cars had speed and how much their tires worn out on a five-lap run.
Here are the lap times from the practice sessions Saturday at COTA…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 95 laps. The race last year at COTA was 68 laps. That means there are 27 more laps for the drivers to score dominator points. The race last year was a one dominator race, with William Byron leading 42 laps. The race in 2023 had two dominators, with Tyler Reddick leading 41 laps and William Byron leading 28 laps. The first race in the Gen-7 car at COTA had two dominators, with Ross Chastain leading 31 laps and Daniel Suarez leading 15 laps. I expect the race Sunday to have two dominators, so I will be selecting some drivers who start up front, with a good chance to lead laps for my lineups.
DFS STATS FOR COTA
The best way to predict the future is it analyzes the past. The field is stacked this week with Shane van Gisbergen, AJ Allmendinger and Conner Zilisch joining the Cup Series drivers who have had success at COTA.
Here are the average DraftKings Points at Atlanta using the Gen-7 car…
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
SHANE VAN GISBERGEN ($9,800): Moving the race from the 3.4-mile track to the 2.3-mile National Course plays right into the hands of SVG. He competed in four Supercars races on this track and most of the Cup Series is seeing the track for the first time. SVG posted the fastest speed in practice and qualified 6th for the race. I will “eat the chalk” and play the popular SVG in my lineups Sunday.
TY GIBBS ($8,400): Gibbs is still looking for his first win in the Cup Series. His first win in the Xfinity Series came on the road course at Daytona. Maybe he can score his first win Sunday… Gibbs has two races at COTA on his resume. He finished 9th in 2023 and 3rd last year. The No. 54 car has some speed again this weekend. Gibbs looked good in race trim so he should be able to make his way to the front from the 13th starting position.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,300): Bowman is not the first driver that comes to mind when people think of road course racing, but he sure is good at COTA. Bowman leads the Cup Series with an average finishing position of third at COTA. He has never finished outside the top-four in the Gen-7 car at this track. Bowman posted the 2nd fastest speed in first practice and the 5th fastest speed in the second practice. The No. 48 car is lights-out fast in the race trim. Bowman should score a lot of place differential points from the 21st starting position Sunday.
CHRIS BUESCHER ($8,100): Do you like safe picks for your DFS lineups? It is tough to find a driver as consistent as Buescher on the road courses. He has finished 12 of his last 14 races on the road courses in the top-10. That is ridiculous. Buescher also finished 8th in his last two races at COTA. The No. 17 car is almost a lock for a top-10 finish, so I will have Buescher in my lineup this week.
AUSTIN CINDRIC ($8,000): I played Cindric in both Superspeedway races so why stop now? COTA has been the best road course track for Cindric. His average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at COTA is 10th. Cindric posted the 6th fastest speed in the first practice and 18th fastest speed in the final practice. That is not great, but the No. 2 car still has enough speed to score the most place differential points Sunday.
CHASE BRISCOE ($7,400): Briscoe has been “OK” at COTA. He finished 6th in 2021, 15th in 2023 and 13th last year. The switch to Joe Gibbs Racing should help Briscoe finish in the top-10 Sunday. He is one of my favorite drivers priced under $8K this weekend.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,000): It wasn’t long ago when Elliott was the “free square” on the road course tracks. He dominated the road course races in the old car and he is starting to get his groove back in the Gen-7 car. Elliott posted the 6th fastest speed in practice and qualified 3rd for the race. Elliott won at COTA in 2021. He should run up front and score well for our DFS lineups Sunday.
CONN0R ZILISCH ($8,700): We typically do not see a driver making his first Cup Series start priced in the high $8K range, but that shows how good Zilisch is on the road courses. There is no doubt that Zilisch has the talent to run up front. Can his pit crew avoid mistakes (it is a part-time crew) and can Zilisch overcome a mistake if he has too? If the answer is yes to those questions, Zilisch could be in Victory Lane Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,600): There is a lot to like about Chastain this weekend. He has the fourth-best average finishing position at COTA (4th), led the third-most laps, has the second-best Driver Rating (119.8) and he gets some extra seat time to figure out this new track since Chastain is competing in the Xfinity Series race Saturday. It will also help Chastain to have SVG in the garage helping him with his braking points on the track and the setup of his car. $8,600 is a good price for Chastain Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,300): I hate playing the same drivers in both the Cash and Tournament Contest lineups because I want to give you the most options as possible. I just cannot fade the upside Bowman has this week. He has never finished outside the top-five at COTA and he had one of the best cars in practice. I am not sure what happened in qualifying, but I expect the No. 48 car to be fast in the race.
DANIEL SUAREZ ($7,600): Saurez is a decent road course racer. He won the race in the Gen-7 car at Sonoma in 2022. He has not been good at COTA, but the addition of Shane van Gisbergen to Trackhouse Racing seems to have helped Suarez find his groove at the National Course. Suarez posted the top-10 speed in both practice sessions and he qualified 5th for the race. I will take a chance with “My Amigo” at COTA.
MICHAEL MCDOWELL ($7,500): McDowell is going to be a popular play Sunday because his price is too low. I know the Spire Motorsports does not have the speed that the top teams have, but McDowell has the talent on the road courses to finish in the top-10. We want as many drivers as possible who can finish in the top-10. McDowell is a cheap driver who can check that box.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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