The Cup Series will travel to Iowa Speedway for their second race in Corn Country. The race last year was dominated by Ryan Blaney. The No. 12 car led 201 of the 350 laps. Most fans would consider that a boring race, but the ending was exciting. William Byron was running down the No. 12 car, but he ran out of laps. Blaney beat Byron by .716-seconds. Goodyear is bringing a brand new tire to the track and the teams have some notes to work with this week. It will be interesting to see how the race in the Heartland plays out with a new tire and more data to work with. The Iowa Corn 350 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on USA.
DFS STATS FOR IOWA
Iowa Speedway is a .875-mile, short track. The track was designed by Rusty Wallace to race like Richmond Raceway. The Cup Series does not travel to Richmond until mid-August so we will have to use the stats from the race last year in Iowa. I will also use the stats form the races earlier this season at Phoenix and Nashville and from the races at Richmond and New Hampshire last year. This should give us an idea of which drivers are good on short flat tracks and have a good chance to finish up front.
Here are the stats from the last year’s races at Iowa Speedway and similar tracks, sorted by DFS Points….
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
NASCAR broke the teams into two groups based on the metrics from the race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway last week. Each group was given 25-minutes to shake down their car for the Iowa Corn 350. Iowa Speedway is a .875-mile track, so most of the teams were able to make a long run in practice.
I would not get too carried away with the practice speeds this week. Ryan Blaney was 22nd fastest, with the 25-fastest 10-lap average speed in practice at Iowa last year. He then went out and dominated the race. Kyle Larson was 13th-fastest in practice and he won the pole, led 80 laps, finished 2nd in Stage 1 and won Stage 2. Track position is everything at Iowa Speedway. Eight of the drivers who started in the top-11, finished in the top-10 last year. I plan to focus more on starting position then practice speed at Iowa Speedway.
Here are the speeds from Saturday’s practice at Iowa Speedway…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race at Iowa Speedway is scheduled for 350 laps (306 miles). That means there are 87.5 points available for leading laps and 157.5 points available for fastest laps (245 dominator points). Ryan Blaney led 201 laps and scored 48 fastest laps last year in Iowa (41.7 dominator points). Kyle Larson led 80 laps and scored 42 fastest laps (38.9 dominator points). Josh Berry led 32 laps and scored 18 fastest laps (16.1 dominator points). Will the race play out like this again with three dominators?
The combination of Goodyear bringing a new tire to the track and the teams having more notes to work with should make the race at Iowa Speedway more competitive. I still expect two drivers to lead most of the laps, but I am not so sure the main dominator will lead over 200 laps like Ryan Blaney did last year.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST
KYLE LARSON ($10,500): Larson finished 34th at Iowa Speedway last year. That doesn’t mean he was a bad pick. Larson won the pole, led 80 laps, finished 2nd in Stage 1, won Stage 2 and got wrecked while trying to pass Daniel Suarez. Larson has an average finishing position of 6th on the short track dating back to the start of the 2024 season. He has also averaged 143 laps led in those races. Larson has a good chance to be one of the dominators Sunday.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,200): Bell won three of the first four races this season and he has been sleep walking his way towards the playoffs. This could be the week when the No 20 team wakes up. Bell won the race earlier this year at Phoenix (another track like Iowa Speedway). He also finished 4th in the inaugural race at Iowa Speedway last year. Bell has an average finishing position of 3.8 on the short, flat track since the beginning of the 2024 season. The No. 20 car was the best in race trim, so Bell should score place differential points and possibly some dominator points Sunday.
CHASE BRISCOE ($9,000): Briscoe is clearly on a heater right now. He finished 2nd at Sonoma, 2nd at Dover and he would have finished in the top-five last week in Indianapolis if he had a few more gallons of fuel in the car. Briscoe is no stranger to winning on the flat tracks in the Gen-7 car. He won the race at Phoenix in 2022. The No. 19 car starts on the pole Sunday. Briscoe should lead a lot of laps and be one of the top-three dominators in the race.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($8,500): Chastain is not the first driver that comes to mind when people think on short, flat tracks, but he has been pretty good. Chastain won the race at Phoenix in 2023 and he finished 11th at Iowa last year. Chastain was the fastest in his group in practice, but he was one of the first drivers to go out in qualifying. The No. 1 car has top-12 speed this weekend.
ERIK JONES ($6,100): Jones had a lot of speed in practice. Steve Latarte made many comments about how the No. 43 car went over the bumps a lot smoother that the rest of the field. Jones went out early in qualifying before the rubber was built up on the track. That caused Jones to qualify deep in the field. Jones has a good chance to finish in the top-15 Sunday.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($5,700): Stenhouse has three wins in the Xfinity Series at Iowa Speedway. He also finished 5th at Iowa last year in the Cup Series car. Stenhouse has not been very good at many tracks, but he seems to have Iowa Speedway figured out. I do not need Stenhouse to do much if Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe are the top two dominators, Christopher Bell scores 10-15 place differential points and Ross Chastain and Erik Jones move up 15 spots in the race.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
* If you are not a fan of Hendrick Motorsports, you will not like my tournament contest lineup. I am stacking the HMS cars. They look like they have the shock package figured out to get over the bumps in Iowa without losing a lot of speed.
KYLE LARSON ($10,500): I will play Larson in both lineups Sunday. The track this weekend looks like it is going to require the drivers to hang onto a loose racecar. Now driver can do that as well as Larson. That is why he is my pick to win Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): Byron has been pretty good on the short, flat tracks. The race in Iowa last year was one of his best. Byron started 4th, ran most of the race in the top-five and finished 2nd. The No. 24 car has some speed again this weekend. I expect Byron to run up front, lead some laps and be a great pick for your DraftKings lineup.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,800): Elliott was pretty good at Iowa Speedway last year. He started 9th, scored 12 fastest laps and finished 3rd in the race. Elliott has an average finishing position of 8th on the tracks similar to Iowa, dating back to the start of the 2024 season. The No. 9 car should finish in the top-10 again Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,100): Bowman has been hit or miss this year and he has been inconsistent on the short, flat tracks too. He finished 7th earlier this year on a similar track in Phoenix. Bowman also started 33rd and drove through the field to an 8th-place finish at Iowa Speedway last year. The No. 48 car had some speed and Bowman qualified 16 for the race. Bowman has a good chance to score some place differential points and finish in the top-10 Sunday.
RYAN PREECE ($7,000): You could make an argument that Preece has been the best driver for RFK Racing this year. He has been the most consistent for sure. Preece currently sits at No. 17 in the Playoff Standings. He needs to have a huge race Sunday. I expect the No. 60 team to gamble with pit strategy to ensure Preece finishes up front. Preece has a good chance to score a lot of place differential points from the 33rd starting position Sunday.
TODD GILLILAND ($5,500): Gilliland has been a good “punt play” on the short, flat tracks. He has average the seventh-most DraftKings Points at these tracks. That is not bad for $5,500. The secret to Gilliland’s success is his ability to score place differential points. The No. 34 car starts 34th Sunday. He finished 12th at Iowa last year and 6th last week in Indianapolis. I will take a chance with Gilliland and hope he steals some track position and finishes up front again Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST
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