The NASCAR Cup Series travels back to Kansas Speedway for the fourth race in “The Chase.” The Cup Series last raced at Kansas Speedway in April. The race was dominated by the Toyota’s. Will this be another battle between Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing or can Hendrick Motorsports or Team Penske find the speed to get to Victory Lane in the Heartland? Kansas Speedway typically puts on a good show and I expect nothing different this weekend. The Hollywood Casino 400 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA.
DFS STATS FOR KANSAS
The best way to handicap the Hollywood Casino 400 is to look at the stats from the previous races at Kansas Speedway and combine them with the stats from the races on the 1.5-mile intermediate tracks this year. I used the stats from the last four races at Kansas Speedway and combined them with the stats from Las Vegas, Texas, Charlotte and Chicagoland to predict which drivers will run up front Sunday.
Here are the stats in the last four races at Kansas Speedway and the other 1.5-mile, intermediate tracks this year, sorted by DraftKings Points…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
Practice and Qualifying was rained out Saturday morning. NASCAR set the field “per the rule book.” This put some really good cars deep in the field (Ryan Blaney and Chase Briscoe). Kansas Speedway is typically a track where drivers can pass, so we should see a lot of movement in the field Sunday.
STRATEGY FOR KANSAS
The race Sunday is scheduled for 267 laps (400 Miles). That means there are 66.75 points available for leading laps and 120.15 points available for fastest laps (186.9 dominator points). The trend at Kansas Speedway is for one driver to lead roughly 180 laps and scores roughly 66 fastest laps (74.7 dominator points). A second driver leads roughly 70 laps and scores roughly 10 fastest laps (22 dominator points). We need to find these two drivers for our lineup Sunday. We will not be able to finish first in our contests without the nearly 100 dominator points that these two drivers are projected to score.
WINNING LINEUPS AT KANSAS (2024-2026)
Kyle Larson has been the most dominate driver at Kansas Speedway. He has been in the winning lineup in four of the last six races in Kansas. Denny Hamlin and Alex Bowman have also been frequent visitors to the winning lineups. The No. 11 and the No. 48 cars have been in half of the winning lineups since the start of 2024.
The winning combination at Kansas Speedway has been to select two drivers priced over $10K, one driver from the low-$9K or upper-$8K range, one driver from the $7K price range and then two “punt plays” (drivers from the $6K or $5K price ranges). I expect this will be the winning combination again Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats) 
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
KYLE LARSON will be my dominator for my Cash Contest lineup. He has been the best driver in the playoffs and Kansas Speedway is his best intermediate track. Larson has a good chance to lead a lot of laps Sunday…. My strategy in my Cash Contest lineups is to pair Larson with five drivers who can score place differential points. RYAN BLANEY and CHASE BRISCOE have been two of the best drivers on the intermediate tracks this year, so I expect these two drivers to make their way to the front quickly Sunday. Blaney and Briscoe offer place differential and possible dominator points for the Cash Contest lineup…. ALEX BOWMAN has been pretty good in the playoffs. He finished 2nd at Gateway, 12th at Darlington and 8th at Daytona. Bowman has finished 6 of his last 8 races at Kansas Speedway in the top-10. The No. 48 car should score a lot of place differential points at Kansas Speedway…. ERIK JONES starts 30th and his average finishing position at Kansas Speedway is 21st. That includes a 16th-place finish in this race last year. Jones is a good cheap pick from the back of the field Sunday…. RICKY STENHOUSE JR. will be my “punt play” in my Cash Contest lineup. For some reason Stenhouse runs well in the Heartland. I will take a chance with the No. 47 car Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
I played KYLE LARSON as my dominator in my Cash Contest lineup, so I will use DENNY HAMLIN as my domiantor in my Tournament Lineup. Hamlin ranks No. 1 on the Intermediate Tracks this year. He has led the most laps in the last two races at Kansas Speedway. We should see the No. 11 car in the front of the field at the Hollywood Casino 400. TYLER REDDICK won this race in April. He will be a threat to win again Sunday. Reddick starts 15th, so he offers place differential points and the potential to dominate a portion of the race. He is just too good to pass up this weekend… WILLIAM BYRON could be a sneaky pick as one of the top dominators Sunday. Byron led 94 laps and finished 4th in the last race on a 1.5-mile, intermediate track (Chicagoland Speedway). I will use Byron Sunday and hope he can repeat what he did in the Windy City…. ALEX BOWMAN and ERIK JONES are in my Cash Contest lineup and I will have them in my Tournament Contest lineup too. They are my favorite drivers who start in the back at Kansas Speedway… DANIEL DUAREZ probably will not have much ownership from the 14th starting position. He does have the upside to finish in the top-10. Suarez won the Coca-Cola 600 at Chatlotte Motor Speedway and he finished 6th in Texas. He has been one of the better value picks on the intermediate tracks this year.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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