The NASCAR Cup Series travels back to Phoenix Raceway for race No. 7 in The Chase. The race in Phoenix was always the Championship Race in the Gen-7 car era, but that race has been moved to Homestead-Miami Speedway this year. Kyle Larson has a 49 point lead in The Chase, but do not count out Denny Hamlin (49 points behind), Christopher Bell (51 points behind) and Chase Briscoe (65 points behind). A win by any of these Joe Gibbs Racing drivers could shorten Larson’s lead significantly. Also, a trip to Phoenix should be the perfect track for Ryan Blaney (85 points back) and Joey Logano (92 points back). These two Team Penske Racing drivers have been the best at Phoenix Raceway and they dominated the short, flat tracks this summer. It should be fun to see how it all plays out in the desert this weekend. The Freeway Insurance 500 can be seen Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA.
DFS STATS FOR PHOENIX
The Cup Series last competed at Phoenix Raceway in March. Christopher Bell led 176 laps but he finished 2nd to a hard charging Ryan Blaney. It was the second consecutive win for Blaney at Phoenix Raceway. The speed from the first race at Phoenix Raceway should translate into speed this weekend.
The best way to handicap the Freeway Insurance 500 is to use the stats from the flat track portion of the schedule this summer. The Cup Series raced at North Wilksboro Speedway, Iowa Speedway, Richmond Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Gateway this summer. The drivers who consistently ran up front in those races should be the drivers running up front Sunday.
Here are the stats from the last three races at Phoenix Raceway and the similar tracks this year, sorted by DraftKings Points…
PRACTICE / QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had 50-minutes to dial in their cars for the Freeway Insurance 500. I looked at the practice speeds from the first race at Phoenix in March. Only three drivers who posted top-10 speeds in practice, finished the race in the top-10 (Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick). Only three drivers who posted the top-10 speed on the 10-lap average speed chart, finished the race in the top-10 (Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs). The practice speeds did not really translate into race speed in March, but that had a lot to do with the fact that the teams only had 25-minutes to shake down their cars and the two groups had different track conditions. I expect the practice speeds will reflect race speed this week, so the teams have more time on the track and everyone is using the same track conditions.
Here are the practice speeds for the practice session at Phoenix Raceway…
STRATEGY FOR PHOENIX
The race Sunday is scheduled for 312 laps (312 Miles). That means there are 78 points available for leading laps and 140.4 points available for fastest laps (218.4 dominator points). The trend in the last three playoff races at Phoenix is for one driver to lead roughly 120 laps and score 44 fastest laps (49.8 Dominator Points). Another driver leads roughly 110 laps and scores 42 fastest laps (46.4 Dominator Points). We have to pay up for the two drivers who we think can lead the most laps Sunday.
WINNING LINEUPS AT PHOENIX (2023-2026)
It is going to be tough to fade Christopher Bell this weekend. He has been in four of the last five winning lineups at Phoenix Raceway. Ryan Blaney should be the best driver to pair with Bell. Blaney has been in two of the last three winning lineups at Phoenix Raceway. The best value pick should be Brad Keselowski. He has been in three of the last four winning lineups. Todd Gilliland could be the best “punt play”. Gilliland has shown up in two of the winning lineups over the last two seasons at Phoenix Raceway.
The best way to build your lineups for the races at Phoenix Raceway has been to use the “stars and scrubs” approach. You will need two drivers priced over $10K and one driver priced in the lower $10K or the $9K price range. You will likely need to pair these drivers with three drivers from the lower $7K or the $6K / $5K price ranges.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
I will play RAYN BLANEY and CHRISTOPHER BELL as my two dominators in the Cash Contest lineups. These two drivers have been the best drivers at Phoenix Raceway over the last three seasons and they were the two fastest drivers in practice. Blaney and Bell should lead a lot of laps Sunday…. BUBBA WALLACE is always good at Phoenix Raceway because he never qualifies well and he always races well. Wallace should score a lot of place differential points from the 23rd starting position…. COREY HEIM looked good in practice and then he got loose in qualifying. Now he starts 36th. Heim has a good chance to score 15-20 place differential points at Phoenix…. BRAD KESELOWSKI finished 4th at Phoenix Raceway in 2024 and 2nd last year. He scored 22 place differential points and ended up in the winning lineup in the March race in Phoenix. Keselowski should score well again at Phoenix Raceway…. My punt play will be JOHN H. NEMECHEK. The Toyota’s have run well on the flat tracks this year. Nemechek finished 14 at this track last year. He will be an awesome pick if he cane do that again Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
I had to choose between RYAN BLANEY and CHRISTOPHER BELL for my main dominator. I decided to go with Bell because he is cheaper, he can score a few more place differential points, I trust the No. 20 pit crew more than I trust Blaney’s pit crew and I want to pivot off of Blaney and use his teammate in my lineup… JOEY LOGANO has been the best driver in the Cup Series on the flat tracks this year. Blaney will get all of the ownership, but do not be surprised if Logano steel’s the show Sunday… CHASE BRISCOE won the last two races. Can he make it three in a row with a win in Pheonix? I think he can. Briscoe won at Phoenix in 2020 while driving for Stewart-Haas Racing. He should be much better in his Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota…. JOSH BERRY was really good on the flat tracks over the summer. I expect Berry to pick up where he left off at Gateway and finish in the top-10 Sunday…. ERIK JONES had a lot of speed in practice until his tire went down. I did not see much damage to the car, so Jones should have the speed to score well from the 29th starting position…. TY DILLON will be my pint play in my Tournament Contest lineup. He was in the winning lineup at Phoenix last year and he was in the winning lineup in two of the flat track races this summer. Austin Dillon is awesome at Richmond and Ty Dillon is good in Phoenix.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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