The 2018 MENCS will compete at Auto Club Speedway this week. Qualifying was an absolute mess this week. Only 21 cars made a qualifying lap, so 16 cars will start in the back. NASCAR made a rule change following the qualifying session. All teams will be allowed to start the race on new tires so the drivers who did not make a qualifying lap will not have an advantage Sunday.
The question that must be answered this week is… Do we go after the 20 bonus points for the race winner or do we simply select the drivers who start in the back and hope for the best? Kevin Harvick would be a great pick to win the race from the 10th starting position. He will also score 20 position differential points. If you really think Harvick will win, I would chase the 20 bonus points for the winner. I plan to play it safe and go with the drivers who start in the back. Here is how I predict the lineups to score Sunday…
Lineup with Kevin Harvick
|
Driver |
Start | Finish | Finish Pts | Pos. Dif. Pts | Total Pts |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | 1 | 100 | 20 |
120 |
|
Denny Hamlin |
25 | 8 | 66 | 34 | 100 |
| Clint Bowyer | 26 | 10 | 62 | 32 |
94 |
|
Jimmie Johnson |
33 | 12 | 58 | 42 | 100 |
| Kasey Kahne | 34 | 27 | 28 | 14 |
42 |
Total Points: 456
Lineup with Drivers from the Back
|
Driver |
Start | Finish | Finish Pts | Pos. Dif. Pts | Total Pts |
| Denny Hamlin | 25 | 8 | 66 | 34 |
100 |
|
Chase Elliott |
31 | 15 | 52 | 32 | 84 |
| Clint Bowyer | 26 | 10 | 62 | 32 |
94 |
|
Jimmie Johnson |
33 | 12 | 58 | 42 |
100 |
|
Daniel Suarez |
30 | 16 | 50 | 28 | 78 |
Total Points: 456
If you chase the 20 points for the winner you will have some risk. If Kevin Harvick crashes you will lose a lot of position differential points. The other lineup has less risk because if one of these drivers crashes, they could still score position differential points. Last year Harvick ran into Denny Hamlin on lap one because Hamlin missed a shift. The No. 4 car busted their radiator and sent them back in the pack. Anything can happen in NASCAR so I like to eliminate the risk.
If you think Kevin Harvick will win, use lineup 1 listed above. If you want to play it safe, use the second lineup listed above.
Here are my picks for the Auto Club….
Driver 1: Denny Hamlin $10,700 (Starts 25th)
Driver 2: Chase Elliott $11,700 (Starts 31st)
Driver 3: Clint Bowyer $9,600 (Starts 26th)
Driver 4: Jimmie Johnson $9,300 (Starts 33rd)
Driver 5: Daniel Suarez $8,600 (Starts 30th)
Good luck this week!
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