The Cup Series will travel to Bristol Motor Speedway this week for some playoff short-track racing. Nothing is better in NASCAR that Saturday under the lights at Bristol. This race always has a lot of chaos and I expect the same this weekend. There is a lot of the line, so there is a good chance that the driver’s tempers will be as hot as the engines under the hood. The Bass Pro Shop Night Race can be seen Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.
DRAFTKINGS ODDS BRISTOL
* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.
BETTING STRATEGY FOR BRISTOL
We really need to start cashing some tickets. I am getting sick and tired of our drivers finishing second. It happened again last week with Shane van Gisbergen. Hopefully this week we can get out drivers to improve by one spot and end up in Victory Lane.
Goodyear is bringing the same tire to Bristol that they used in the spring race. The fall-off with that tire was massive. The drivers who could maintain their speed over the long runs ended up at the front of the pack. I am focusing my bets for Saturday night on the drivers who were fast when the tires wore out. Here is the driver’s average running speed late in a run at Bristol in March….
We need to make a decision this week. Should we bet on Denny Hamlin or Kyle Larson to win? Hamlin is 6 points below the cut-line. He is not in a “must-win” situation, but he needs a great race. Hamlin has won the last two races at Bristol, so it makes sense that he is the favorite. I am fading Hamlin because nothing has made sense this season. I just think Hamlin has too much on his mind with the charter situation. I will pivot to Larson. His stats at Bristol are just as good as Hamlin and I just trust the No. 5 team more than the No. 11 team. I will add in a few drivers with longer odds and hope one of them finds Victory Lane Saturday night. I have no problem signing off on a betting card with only Hamlin and Larson on it. They are clearly the favorites this week.
BETTING CARD FOR BRISTOL
KYLE LARSON (+500): Larson is going to run up front Saturday night. That is what he does in Thunder Valley. Larson finished 5th, 2nd, 5th and 1st in his last four races on the concrete at Bristol. That is an average finishing position of 3.25. The tire that Goodyear is bringing to the track this week should play right into Larson’s hands. He had the fastest car on the long runs in March, but a pit road penalty sent him to the back of the field. Larson had no problem racing to the front and finishing 5th. Larson should have a great chance to win the Bass Pro Shop Night Race.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (+1100): Keselowski sits 12 points below the transfer line for the playoffs. His team will likely try to score some Stage Points in Stage 1 and if it doesn’t work out, they will pit before the end of Stage 2 so they can start up front in the final Stage. Keselowski was one of the best at managing his tires over a long run at Bristol in March. He has three wins at Bristol on his resume. I will bet that Keselowski can add another trophy from Bristol to his collection.
CHRIS BUESCHER (+1200): Buescher got on a hot streak last year and won back-to-back races at Michigan and Richmond. Can he do it again and win races at Watkins Glen and Bristol. I am willing to bet that he can… Buescher won in the Gen-7 car at Bristol in 2022. He also had the fifth-best long-run speed in the race last March. Buescher is good at Bristol and he is good at maintaining his speed over a long run. I will take a chance with the No. 17 team Saturday night.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+1600): Am I throwing money away by betting on Truex to win? Maybe, but this could be the last race that he cares about. Truex told SiriusXM NASCAR Radio after the race at Watkins Glen, “This is not even racing anymore. You can driver right through your competitors without any repercussions. I am in a hole, so I guess that will be my strategy next week at Bristol. After that, I am out.” The No. 19 team had a lot of speed at Bristol in March. I love a pissed off Truex. He really doesn’t care who he pisses off, because he is not racing next year. His aggression should be through the roof Saturday night. If he has a chance to win, I would not want to be the driver between him and Victory Lane.
JOSH BERRY (+2500): Berry at 25-1 odds seems like one of the best bets in the field. Berry is not in the playoffs, so it is checkers or wreckers for the No. 4 team. Berry looked really good at Bristol in March. He qualified on the front row, had the seventh-best average running position and the eighth-best long-run speed in his car. Berry has a handful of tracks where is really good at and Bristol in one of them. The No. 4 team just needs to catch a break with the pit cycle and Berry could win Saturday night.
ALEX BOWMAN (+4500): The talk about Bowman being fired from Hendrick Motorsports at the end of the season has lit a fire in the No. 48 team. Bowman may not have the finishes that he wanted in the last three races, but his average running position has increased a lot. Each year Bowman wins a race and we think, “Where did that come from.” I have a feeling that the race Saturday night at Bristol could be one of those races. Bowman is at his best in races where tire management is important. He had the seventh-best long-run speed at Bristol in March. Bowman finished 4th in that race and he will have a decent chance to win the race this week. I will bet $10 on Bowman to return $450.
** I will not be posting updated Best Bets this weekend, but you can ask me on Twitter or in the Member’s Forum s there are any other drivers I like after qualifying.
Good luck Saturday Night!
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