The Cup Series will travel to Homestead-Miami Speedway this week for the second race in the Round of 8. This is the portion of the season when the top drivers start winning the races and that makes it tough to win a large amount of cash with our bets. The eight playoff drivers are desperate to win Sunday in order to secure their place in the championship race. They will do whatever it takes to win and the other drivers want to win, but they also do not want to end a playoff driver’s season. I expect another driver who is racing for the championship to be in Victory Lane Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS ODDS HOMESTEAD
* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.
BETTING STRATEGY FOR HOMESTEAD
Last week I spent 60% of my bankroll on Kyle Larson at 3-1 odds. I thought for sure he would win the race based on the fact that he won the last two races in Las Vegas and he won half of the races he competed in on the 1.5-mile tracks this year. The NASCAR Gods quickly reminded me how random NASCAR can be. Larson had a fast car and he still had the talent to dominate the race. Unfortunately, his pit crew ruined his day and 60% of my bankroll for the week was gone.
So, here we sit again… Kyle Larson is once again a 3-1 favorite to win Sunday. All of the stats suggest that he will win, but do we trust them. I can understand people wanting to bet a large portion of their bankroll on Larson again this week, but I think I learned my lesson in Las Vegas (What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas, right?). I am going to spread out my bets and take a chance with a few drivers who should have just as good of a chance to win Sunday as Larson. Hopefully this is the race when our driver finds Victory Lane.
BETTING CARD FOR HOMESTEAD
CHRISTOPHER BELL (+600): Bell won the race at Homestead last year, but that is not the reason why I am betting on the No. 20 car this weekend. Bell seems to be the best driver (or at least the most consistent) in the Cup Series right now. The track that races most similar to Homestead is Darlington. Both tracks require drivers to search for grip and save their tires over a long run. Bell finished 3rd in the Southern 500 last month. He also led 122 laps and finished 7th at Kansas and he led 155 laps and finished 2nd in Las Vegas last week. Bell has a good chance to win another race at Homestead Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON (+700): Byron is no stranger to Victory Lane at Homestead. He won at this track in 2021and he won a Truck Series race at Homestead too. Byron is on a bit of a hot streak too. He has finished the last four races in the top-four. Byron finished 2nd at Kansas and 4th last week at Las Vegas. The No. 24 car has the best Driver Rating on the 1.5-mile tracks in the playoffs this year. Can that speed translate into a win at Homestead? I think it can.
RYAN BLANEY (+1200): Blaney is not the first driver that comes to mind when people think of the races at Homestead, but he was really good last year. Blaney led 53 laps, finished 3rd in Stage 1, won Stage 2 and he finished 2nd in the race last year. His 123.7 Driver Rating was the best in the field. The No. 12 team needs to bring back that same setup this week and they should be fast again. Blaney has been a “boom or bust” driver in the playoffs this year. I would not be surprised if he is in Victory Lane Sunday and joins his teammate in the championship race in Phoenix.
ROSS CHASTAIN (+1700): Chastain is not racing for a championship, but that has not slowed him down. He finished 5th in the Southern 500 at Darlington, won the playoff race in Kansas and he finished 7th last week in Las Vegas. Chastain is not going to move over for anyone. If he has a chance to win Sunday, he will take it. Chastain finished 2nd at Homestead in the Gen-7 car in 2022. I just need him to improve by one spot Sunday in order to put some cash in our pocket.
AUSTIN DILLON (+10000): I know there is a good chance that I am throwing my money away by betting on Dillon to win Sunday, but he did win at Richmond at 100-1 odds, so maybe he can do it again. Homestead is the best track for Dillon and it is not even close. His 8.7 average finishing position at this track is second-best to William Byron. He also has the fifth-best Driver Ranking at Homestead. Those are some pretty good stats at 100-1 odds. I’ll take some pizza money and bet it on Dillon to win Sunday.
Good luck Sunday!
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