Best Bets for Kansas

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The Cup Series travels to Kansas Speedway this weekend. The story of the 2024 season has been about the battle between Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing. Will that trend continue this week? There have been four races at Kansas in the Gen-7 car and 23XI Racing has won three of them. It will be tough to beat the HMS and JGR cars, but the 23XI Racing drivers will have a lot of confidence heading into the Advent Health 400.

The Best Bet got back to Victory Lane last week at Dover. I knew we were not going to get very good odds with Denny Hamlin so I decided to wait until after qualifying to make a bet on the No. 11 car. Hamlin opened up at +750 and he dropped to +650 after he posted the second-fastest long-run speed in practice and qualified sixth for the race. I decided to bet Hamlin as an insurance policy to get my money back + $30. It wasn’t a huge payday, but it is better than losing my bankroll for the week. That makes five winners in 11 races. I need to get us up to 50% this week (six winners in 12 races).

 

DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR KANSAS

* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.

 

BETTING STRATEGY FOR KANSAS

When the odds were released Tuesday I immediately thought, “Well this sucks!” The race at Kansas “should” be a three horse battle. Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick have owned the races in the Gen-7 car at Kansas. I know this and so do the sportsbooks. I really want to bet these three drivers to win, but it is tough to return a profit unless we bet our entire bankroll on one or two of them. I will fade the top three and take a chance with some drivers with longer odds.

It will be a good idea to keep your betting card to the drivers from Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and 23X1 Racing this week. The cars from those teams have been faster than the field at the intermediate tracks and their pit crews are a lot better. The only other drivers I would consider Sunday would be Ryan Blaney and Ross Chastain. These two drivers have been pretty good at running up front, but haven’t shown any signs of winning one of these races yet. Blaney or Chastain could win “if” they get some luck in the race.

 

BETTING CARD FOR KANSAS

* I use a $100 bankroll each week. I will bet $40 now and save the remaining $60 for after qualifying. I will likely bet $30 each on two drivers who look fast in practice.

 

CHASE ELLIOTT (9-1): Elliott won the last race on a 1.5-mile intermediate track (Texas), so why can’t he do it again? Elliott was in a huge slump last year after his snowboarding accident. He was still able to finish 6th and 7th at Kansas (two of his best races of the season). Now Elliott is on a hot streak. NASCAR’s Most Popular Driver won at Kansas in 2018. I will bet that he can do it again Sunday.

BUBBA WALLACE (16-1): One of the first drivers I looked for when the odds came out was Wallace. 23X1 has won three of the four races at Kansas in the Gen-7 car and that includes the trip to Victory Lane in 2022 for Wallace. He did not use pit strategy and Wallace did not get a lucky caution to win that race. He flat out raced to the front and won at Kansas. Wallace needs something good to happen after the bad luck he has had in the last two races. He will be clicking his heels and saying, “There is no place like home…There is no place like home” when the Wizard of Oz takes Wallace to Kansas Speedway.

ALEX BOWMAN (25-1): I want to keep my betting card to the Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and 23X1 cars this weekend. I am shocked to see Bowman is at 25-1 odds. He hasn’t been to Victory Lane in a long time, but Bowman has been running pretty well. Denny Hamlin said on his podcast (Actions Detrimental) this week, “The No. 48 car was the fastest and we were lucky to beat him off of pit road.” The No. 48 car is going to have a chance to win Sunday if the team can bring the same speed to Kansas. Bowman has led the second-most laps at Kansas in the Gen-7 car. His odds are just too good to pass up this week.

 

* I will add a few more bets after qualifying this weekend.

 

Good luck Sunday!

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