Best Bets for Las Vegas

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The 2024 NASCAR season is off to a hot start and so are the “Best Bets”. The Cup Series just had one of their best races in a long time and the Best Bets were able to cash with Daniel Suarez at 30-1 odds. You made enough to cover your yearly subscription to this website if you bet $10 on Suarez last week. We should not be happy with one win though. I will do my best to get us some more winning tickets this year.

The Cup Series race should be much easier to predict now that the Superspeedway portion of the schedule is complete, right? Well, not so fast my friend…. Toyota and Ford have a new car this year and no one knows for sure how they will race with 38 other cars on the track. Toyota Racing Development (TRD) and Ford Racing both said they like the numbers they saw in their wind-tunnel tests, but we will not know for sure if it was money well spent by these teams until after the race at Las Vegas. I plan to diversify my betting card this week and make sure I have at least one Chevy, one Toyota and one Ford. I expect one manufacture to hit on something, but we really do not know who it will be. (You can wait until after practice to make your bets, but the odds will drop once the sportsbooks see the speed charts).

 

DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR LAS VEGAS

* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.

 

STRATEGY FOR LAS VEGAS

Let’s look at the drivers who have won races in the Gen-7 car at Las Vegas. Kyle Larson won the last race at 5-1 odds. William Byron won last March at 12-1 odds. Joey Logano won the playoff race in 2022 at 12-1 odds and Alex Bowman won in March of 2022 at 18-1 odds. That is three Hendrick Motorsports drivers and one Team Penske driver at an average of 12-1 odds.

We can also look at all of the races in the Gen-7 car to see if there is a trend. The drivers who have won these races include William Byron (twice), Denny Hamlin (twice), Tyler Reddick (twice), Kyle Larson (once), Joey Logano (once), Ryan Blaney (once), Bubba Wallace (once) and Alex Bowman (Once).  Guess what the average odds of these winners is…12-1. Bowman and Wallace both won at 18-1 odds. That is the longest-shots to win a Gen-7 car race at a 1.5-mile track.

So, what does this information tell us? We will likely have a favorite in Victory Lane and the chances of getting a driver with odds outside of 18-1 or really slim. The sweet spot for betting is around 12-1 odds. I will use this information for my card this week.

 

BETTING CARD FOR LAS VEGAS

* I am using a $100 weekly bankroll for my picks this year. The “Best Bets” below are how I recommend wagering this week if you were to bet $100 on each race. You can adjust it to fit your bankroll.

 

WILLIAM BYRON (8.5-1): I wanted to bet Kyle Larson this week, but his odds are just too short to bet for this race. Instead, I will take his teammate. Byron won this race last year and he will have a good chance to win again Sunday. He has the best driver ranking, best average running position and led the most laps at Las Vegas in the Gen-7 car. Shop around and see if you can get better odds, but +850 are not too bad.

CHRISTOPHER BELL (9-1): The Cup Series just competed at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last October. Bell had the best car in the race. He won the pole, finished second in Stage 1, third in Stage 2, led 61 laps and finished second in the race. Bell also had the top driver rating in the race. I want one Toyota on my card this week and I had to decide between Bell and Denny Hamlin. I decided to go with Bell since he offers a bit more of a return on investment and his recent track history at Las Vegas is better than Hamlin’s.

RYAN BLANEY (9-1): The Fords were not very good on the 1.5-mile tracks last year, but Blaney was able to win the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte. The new Ford Mustang Dark Horse is supposed to be much faster. If that is the case, Blaney will have a good chance to win Sunday. He is the best driver from the Ford garage, so I will have the No. 12 car on my card.

KYLE BUSCH (12-1): I talked about 12-1 odd being the sweet spot for cashing tickets earlier in this article. Busch checks that box and many others this week. Rowdy is always better when he races in the lower series before he gets into his Cup Series car. He is racing in the Truck Series race Friday night, so that should help him Sunday. This is also his home track. He finished 3rd, 14th, 3rd and 4th in the four races in the Gen-7 car at Las Vegas. I just need Rowdy to improve by a few spots in order for this pick to work out perfectly.

ROSS CHASTAIN (15-1): Chastain was the first driver I looked at when DraftKings released the odds for the Pennzoil 400. I knew I was going to bet Chastain. I just wanted to see if his odds were in the 12-1 ballpark. He is 15-1 and that is even better. Chastain has the best average finishing position at Las Vegas in the Gen-7 car (5.5). He finished 2nd and 3rd at this track in 2022. The Chevy’s may have an advantage this week since they have two years worth of notes to work with. Chastain will have a great chance to find Victory Lane Sunday if the Chevy’s do have an advantage Sunday.

 

* I really like KYLE LARSON to win this week, but I hate his odds. I will wait until after practice and qualifying to decide if I will bet any money on Larson. His odds will not drop any lower than they already are for the race.

 

Good luck Sunday!

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