The Cup Series travels back to Martinsville this week for the final race in the Round of Eight. The race last October at Martinsville was one of the most exciting races I have ever seen. Unfortunately, we will not get to witness another “Hail Mellon” Sunday, because NASCAR banned that move for safety reasons. There should still be plenty of drama to keep you entertained Sunday.
What is DraftKings doing with the odds this week? They made Denny Hamlin a 3-1 favorite to win? Why?…. Nine drivers have won the last 12 races at Martinsville. You know who is not included in the list of nine…? Denny Hamlin. His last win at Martinsville was in 2015. He is 0-17 at this track since 2015, so why are the odds so short for Hamlin? I think he will be one of the best drivers in the field Sunday, but he is far from a lock to win the race.
Last week I spent my entire bankroll on three drivers because the races at Homestead are always won by a small group of drivers. That is not the case at Martinsville. Kyle Larson (2023), Christopher Bell (2022), William Byron (2022), Alex Bowman (2021), Martin Truex Jr. (2021, 2020 and 2019), Chase Elliott (2020) and Joey Logano (2018) have all won at Martinsville since 2018. The only driver to win more than one race is Truex. Four of the last five playoff races at Martinsville have been won by playoff drivers (Alex Bowman’s win in 2021 was the only non-playoff driver to win).
I plan to spread my bankroll out this week. There are a lot of drivers with good odds in play. I think this is the week when a long-shot could find his way to Victory Laney.
DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR MARTINSVILLE
* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.
** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on Denny Hamlin at 3-1 odds, you will win $3.
KYLE LARSON (7-1): I would rather take a chance with Kyle Larson at 7-1 odds over Denny Hamlin at 3-1 odds. I was shocked to see Larson was not the favorite to win Sunday. The No. 5 car has been fast at every track this year. Hendrick Motorsports has won three of the last four races at Martinsville. Larson won the race at Martinsville this year and he finished second in this race last year. Larson is a good bet at 7-1 odds.
RYAN BLANEY (12-1): Blaney has never won at Martinsville, but that does not mean he is a bad bet for Sunday’s race. Blaney finished 4th, 3rd and 7th in the three races using the Gen-7 car at Martinsville. That is second-best in the field behind Kyle Larson. Blaney currently sits 10 points above the cut-line. Team Penske will put a lot of effort into the No. 12 car Sunday. I would not be surprised to see Blaney win his first race at Martinsville Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO (14-1): Logano only has one win at Martinsville but he probably should have two if his good friend Matt Kenseth did not come out of the garage to say hello to the No. 22 car in 2015. Logano has the best average finishing position (4.7) at Martinsville since 2018. He finished second at Martinsville in April. He is a good bet to win the race Sunday.
KEVIN HARVICK (18-1): Jeff Gordon won the October race in 2015. It was his last season as a full-time driver in the Cup Series. Could Kevin Harvick do the same? I will bet that he can. Harvick qualified seventh, led 20 laps, won Stage 2 and was running up front at Martinsville in April. He had a good chance to win, but a slow pit stop put him deep in the field. I will be beating Harvick to win this week and next week at Phoenix. NASCAR is known for making a big story from their races. A trip to Victory Lane for the No. 4 car would be one of the biggest stories of the season.
CHASE ELLIOTT (20-1): Elliott has not been to Victory Lane in 2023, but that could change Sunday. Hendrick Motorsports has been good at Martinsville and Elliott has been their best driver. He leads the Cup Series with a 115.4 Driver Rating at Martinsville since 2018. He also has the third-best average finishing position and has led the most laps since 2018. Elliott is a great bet at 20-1 odds Sunday.
ARIC ALMIROLA (30-1): Almirola is a short, flat track specialist. His best tracks are New Hampshire, Richmond and Martinsville. There is just something about driving on the short, flat tracks that brings out the best in Almirola. He qualified third, scored 10 Stage Points and finished sixth at Martinsville in April. He has finished three of the last four races at Martinsville in the top-10. I will roll the dice with Almirola at one of his best tracks.
CHASE BRISCOE (35-1): Briscoe was awesome at Martinsville in April. He drove the car with a broken finger and he qualified fourth, led 109 laps, scored 15 Stage Points and finished fifth. He had the highest driver rating and the best average running position in the race. Briscoe has been the third-best driver in the Gen-7 car at Martinsville (behind Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney). Briscoe finished 5th, 9th and 9th in his three races at Martinsville in the Gen-7 car. I will bet the best car in the spring race at 35-1 odds this week.
RYAN PREECE (45-1): Preece was the surprise of the race at Martinsville in April. Preece won the pole, led 135 laps, won Stage 1, but a pit penalty caused him to finish 15th. Preece cut his teeth racing on the short, flat tracks in the North East. His odds are just too good to pass up Sunday. I will bet a few bucks on the No. 41 car at Martinsville.
Good luck Sunday!
Follow me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR