Best Bets for Phoenix


The 2022 NASCAR Cup Season has been the wildest I have ever seen, but they made it to Phoenix and now it is time to crown a champion. Before I get into the Best Bets for the championship race, I want to say THANK YOU!!! My goal every year is to provide you the best picks and teach you a little bit about how to find value in your NASCAR bets. I appreciate you giving me the chance to be your “Fantasy NASCAR Crew Chief.” The 2022 season is almost complete and I already cannot wait for the 2023 season. Now onto Phoenix….

I have been writing in my articles for the last month that the sweet spot for wagering on NASCAR is from the drivers priced in the 12-1 to 15-1 odds range. We cashed with another driver last week when Christopher Bell went to Victory Lane at 12-1 odds. The odds are crazy this week, so we will get a good chance to win with some drivers outside the 12-1 odds range at Phoenix.

DraftKings Sportsbook is daring us to bet against the Championship Four drivers. I will take their bet. I know the trend in the championship race is for a playoff driver to be in Victory Lane, but this is not a normal season. There have been four non-playoff drivers in Victory Lane in the nine playoff races. There is a good chance it could happen again Sunday. I bet Chase Elliott (9-1) and Joey Logano (16-1) to win the championship before the season started. I will stick to those tickets and take the value with the non-playoff drivers Sunday.



* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time I wrote this article and the time you place your bet.

** The first number is the amount of money based on the second number (the amount of the wager). So if you bet $1 on CHASE ELLIOTT, you will win $2.


Here are my best bets for the race at Phoenix

KYLE LARSON (15-1): Larson has a lot to race for Sunday. The No. 5 team is not racing for the driver’s championship, but they are racing for the owner’s championship. That does not mean much to us, but it means millions of dollars for the No. 5 team. Larson won this race last year and I will bet he can win again Sunday.

DENNY HAMLIN (18-1): Hamlin has not been able to win the championship race when he was competing for the trophy. Wouldn’t it fit this season for Hamlin to win the final race after he was eliminated from the playoffs by a Hail Mary from Ross Chastain? Hamlin has finished third, fourth and first in the last three November races at Phoenix. 18-1 odds are too good to pass up this week.

RYAN BLANEY (20-1): Blaney may be eliminated from the playoffs but that does not mean he does not have anything to race for. Blaney has said it is very important for him to win a race before the season is complete. No driver wants to end the season with a goose-egg in the wins column. Blaney finished second at Phoenix in March. I will bet he can improve by one spot Sunday.

KEVIN HARVICK (25-1): DraftKings is going to give me “The King of Phoenix” at 25-1 odds? I will take it. I know Harvick has not been to Victory Lane at Phoenix since the track was reconfigured, but that does not mean he has not been good. Harvick finished 6th, 8th, 6th, 7th, 2nd, 5th, 9th, 5th, 1st, 5th, 6th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st and 1st at Phoenix since he joined Stewart-Haas Race in 2014. I do not see any bad races in that list. Harvick will go for the win if he has a chance to do so Sunday.


LONG SHOT SPECIAL CHASE BRISCOE (40-1): When is the last time a driver won at a track and then the series returned to the track in the same year and the driver had 40-1 odds. I do not remember it ever happening and it should not happen this week. Briscoe won the race at Phoenix in March. He has been running well in the playoffs and the No. 14 car should have the speed to get to the front Sunday. I have to put some cash on Briscoe at 40-1 odds knowing he already won at Phoenix this year.  


Good luck this week!


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