The NASCAR Cup Series will stay out west this week to compete at Phoenix Raceway. This will be the first of 10 short track races on the schedule and the first using the new short track aero package. There are a lot of unknowns going into this race, just like there were in the first three races of the season. NASCAR will give the teams 50 minutes of track time Friday to figure out this new package. Will the new disfuser and larger spoiler be a game changer, or will the drivers who typically dominate at Phoenix run up front Sunday? The answer to that question will determine who you should place your money behind this week.
DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR PHOENIX
* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.
STRATEGY FOR PHOENIX
The new aero-package will likely bring a few more drivers into play this week. Money still buys speed and the best pit crews in the Cup Series. I am placing my bets this week on the favorites. Hendrick Motorsports won half of the races so far this season and I see no reason why that will change Sunday. Trackhouse Racing has also been fast this year. I will place most of my bankroll behind these two teams and add in a few drivers with longer odds to win.
The other strategy is to wait until after the 50-minute practice session Friday to place your bets. We will know a lot more about which teams have the cars to beat after everyone makes a 20-30 lap run in practice. My advice would be to put most of your bankroll behind the two drivers that dominate practice (if there are two drivers who stand out in practice). Last week Kyle Larson was the fastest on the 5, 10, 15 and 20 lap speed charts. It was clear he had the car to beat. We would have been better off waiting until after practice and placing 80% of our bankroll on the No. 5 car. That strategy should work well this week too. The two drivers at the top of my post practice Driver Rankings are the two I would bet your bankroll on if you want to wait until after practice to place your bets.
BETTING CARD FOR PHOENIX
* I am using a $100 weekly bankroll for my picks this year. The “Best Bets” below are how I recommend wagering this week if you were to bet $100 on each race. You can adjust it to fit your bankroll.
KYLE LARSON (6-1): I am confident the No. 5 team will show up with a lot of speed in Friday’s practice so I will bet Larson now at 6-1 odds. His odds will cut in half if he dominates practice like he did last week. Larson participated in the test session at Phoenix last December. Crew Chief Cliff Daniels will have two days of testing and 50-minutes of practice to dial in the car for Larson. I am almost positive that is enough time to allow Larson to lead 200 laps and have a great chance to win, just like he did last year in this race.
WILLIAM BYRON (8-1): Byron is my pick to win right now. He did not participate in the practice session at Phoenix in December, but the No. 24 team has all of the notes from the No. 5 team. Byron will get 50-minutes of practice and 200 laps in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race to figure out this track. Byron led 64 laps in this race last year and he went to Victory Lane. He came back in November and led 95 laps and finished fourth. Byron should be in Victory Lane Sunday, if Kyle Larson doesn’t beat him to it.
ROSS CHASTAIN (9-1): Trackhouse Racing has won two of the last four races, including the race last November at Phoenix. Chastain used a fast pit stop to gain the lead to start the final Stage last year. It was game over once the No. 1 car went to the front of the field. Chastain led 157 laps and went to Victory Lane. He also finished 2nd and 3rd at Phoenix in 2022. Chastain should be a threat to win the race again Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO (12-1): Logano is no stranger to Victory Lane at Phoenix. He has three wins at this track. That includes a win in 2022 when he won the pole, led 187 laps and went to Victory Lane in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix. Logano has been in a slump for a while, but it is not like he hasn’t had speed. He had one of the fastest cars at Daytona and Atlanta and he won the pole in Las Vegas. One of these days the No. 22 team is going to put it all together and dominate the race. I will bet it happens this week.
JOSH BERRY (80-1): So, I can get Kevin Harvick’s car and Kevin Harvick’s crew chief at Phoenix at 80-1 odds? I will take it. The odds on the No. 4 car this week would be somewhere around 8-1 or 9-1 if Harvick was behind the wheel. Having Berry behind the wheel drops the odd to 80-1. Berry filled in for Chase Elliott in this race last year. He started 17th and finished 10th. The No. 4 car should be faster than what Berry had last year. A Stewart-Haas Racing car won at Phoenix in 2022 (Chase Briscoe). That was in a Gen-7 car. I will bet Berry can bring another Stewart-Haas Racing car to Victory Lane Sunday.
Good luck Sunday!
Follow me on X (Twitter) @MrFantasyNASCAR