Best Bets for Sonoma


The Cup Series will compete at Sonoma Raceway this weekend. This will be the second race on a road course for the Cup Series. It will be the first race on the repaved track. William Byron won the first road course race at COTA at 10-1 odds. Will we see another one of the favorites in Victory Lane at Sonoma or will a long-shot like Daniel Suarez who won at 33-1 odds in 2022 be holding the trophy after the race? It should be fun to see how it all plays out. The Toyota / Save Mart 350 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.



* The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds could change between the time of this article and the time you place your bet.



We need to decide if we are going to bet Martin Truex Jr. or the field this week. He is clearly the favorite to win, so we need to bet a lot of money on the No. 19 car in order to win a lot of money. Truex has won four of the last eight races at Sonoma. The other three races were won by Daniel Suarez, Kyle Larson,Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch.

I am going to “bet the field this week.” That means I will fade Martin Truex Jr. (for now) and bet five drivers who I think have a decent chance to win Sunday. I will still have $40 of my $100 bankroll to bet after practice. I will bet all $40 on Truex to win if he smokes the field in practice and qualifies up front. I will spread out the money I have left on two more drivers if Truex doesn’t dominate the practice session. This will give me seven drivers on my card to win the race and take down Truex.




CHASE ELLIOTT (9-1): Elliott used to be the master of the road courses in the Cup Series. He has been good, but not great on these tracks in the Gen-7 car. It looks like Elliott is starting to get his mojo back. He finished fifth, eighth and second in his last three races at Sonoma. He has had the best car at Sonoma many times, but luck was not on his side. No driver in the Cup Series has more wins on the road courses then Elliott. I will take a chance with the No. 9 car Sunday.

MICHAEL MCDOWELL (14-1): Would anyone be surprised if McDowell was in Victory Lane Sunday? I wouldn’t be. He won on the Indy Road Course last year and his No. 34 car has a lot more speed than it had last year. McDowell finished third and seventh in his two races at Sonoma in the Gen-7 car. There is no doubt that the No. 34 team will gamble with their pit strategy Sunday. They just need a little luck to win at 14-1 odds at Sonoma.

CHRIS BUESCHER (14-1): Buescher should be the winner of the race Sunday according to the stats. His third-place average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Sonoma is the best in the Cup Series. He also has the best average running position in the last two races at Sonoma (4.7). Do you want a larger sample size? Buescher also has the best average finishing position in the last 10 road course races (8th). He has 14 consecutive top-11 finishes on the road courses. Buescher keeps knocking on Victory Lane’s door. Sooner or later it will open for him.

DENNY HAMLIN (22-1): Hamlin had the best car at Sonoma last year. He won the pole, led all of the laps in Stage 1 and then was spun out and finished 36th. He was fast in 2022 too, but was wrecked in that race and finished 31st. They priced Hamlin at 22-1 based on his finishing position. Obviously the people who set the odds did not watch the No. 11 car lead all of the laps. Hamlin has a great chance to win “if” he can stay out of trouble. I will take a chance at 22-1 odds Sunday.

KYLE BUSCH (28-1): I know Busch has not been very good this year, but he has won a race in 19 consecutive seasons. Busch desperately wants to extend that streak to 20. If it happens, it should come at a track like Sonoma where the fastest car does not always win the race. Busch finished second at Sonoma last year, second in 2019 and he won the race in 2015. Sonoma is his best road course track. His 28-1 odds are too good to pass up this week.


Good luck Sunday!

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