The NASCAR Cup Series will travel back to Atlanta Motor Speedway this week. This will be the second race in the 2023 season for the Cup Series in Atlanta. The first race was won by Joey Logano. The Fords have been fast on the Superspeedways this year, but Chevy has won two of the three races (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at Daytona and Kyle Busch at Talladega). Will we see another Chevy in Victory Lane Sunday night or will the Fords win again at Atlanta? Maybe it will be Toyota’s time to shine in the Peach State. We will see how it all plays out in the Quaker State 400 at Atlanta.
ATLANTA PRACTICE SPEEDS
NASCAR decided to eliminate practices on the Superspeedways, so that means the Cup Series teams did not have any time to dial in their cars for the race. They lined up the cars for qualifying and set the field for the Quaker State 400. This is going to make predicting this race a bit tougher, but there are a handful of drivers who have run well in all three races on the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway. I will stick to these drivers for my lineups Sunday night.
CUP SERIES STATS AT SUPERSPEEDWAY TRACKS
Atlanta is a hybrid between an intermediate track and a Superspeedway. The top drivers tend to finish up front more at Atlanta than they do at Daytona and Talladega. I will focus my picks on the three races at Atlanta since the track was reconfigured. I will also sprinkle in some of the data from the Daytona 500, since it is a tight Superspeedway race too. I do not think the data from the race at Talladega will translate into data we can use for Sunday’s night race.
Here are the driver’s average DFS Points from the three races at Atlanta and the Daytona 500 earlier this season…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The strategy in most Superspeedway races is to fade the top-10 and focus on the drivers who start deeper in the field with the best chance to score place differential points. That strategy is true for most of our picks this week, but we need at least one dominator in our lineup Sunday night.
Passing for the lead is not as easy at Atlanta as it is at Daytona and Talladega. The three races on the reconfigured track have all had one driver dominate the race. William Byron led 111 laps in the first race, Chase Elliott led 96 laps in the second race and Joey Logano led 140 laps in the race last March. That means the main dominator has averaged 115 laps led (28.75 dominator points). We are going to need this driver in our lineup if we hope to win Sunday night. My strategy will be to play one dominator and five drivers who can score some place differential points. That has been the winning strategy in the previous three races and I expect the same this weekend.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Aric Almirola, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, William Byron, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, Daniel Suarez, Brad Keselowski, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon, Corey LaJoie and Austin Hill
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR ATLANTA
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: KYLE BUSCH (DK $10.5K / FD $12.5K), CHASE ELLIOTT (DK $10.4K / FD $11K), KYLE LARSON (DK $10.2K / FD $14K), JOEY LOGANO (DK $10.1K / FD $10K), DENNY HAMLIN (DK $9.9K / FDK $12K), RYAN BLANEY (DK $9.7K / FD $9.5K), WILLIAM BYRON (DK $9.5K / FD $13K), ROSS CHASTAIN (DK $9.4K / FD $11.5K), CHRISTOPHER BELL (DK $9.2K / FD $10.5K), BRAD KESELOWSKI (DK $9K / FD $7.5K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: MARTIN TRUEX JR. (DK $8.8K / FD $13.5K), CHRIS BUESCHER (DK $8.6K / FD $7.2K), TYLER REDDICK (DK $8.5K / FD $8.5K), BUBBA WALLACE (DK $8.3K / FD $8.2K), ALEX BOWMAN (DK $8.1K / FD $7.8K), RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (DK $7.9K / FD $6.8K), ARIC ALMIROLA (DK $7.5K / FD $5.2K), DANIEL SUAREZ (DK $7.2K / FD $7K), ERIK JONES (DK $7K / FD $5K), MICHAEL MCDOWELL (DK $6.7K / FD $4.5K), COREY LAJOIE (DK $6.5K / FD $4.5K), AUSTIN DILLON (DK $6.4K / FD $6K)
PUNT PLAYS: AUSTIN HILL (DK $5.9K / FD $2.5K) JUSTIN HALEY (DK $5.8K / FD $4K), TY DILLON (DK $4.9K / FD $2.5K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
*Do not be afraid to leave a lot of salary on the table. Our goal is to post the highest score, not to spend the most money. These drivers should all score a lot of place differential points. The are all upside and no risk.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT SINGLE-ENTRY CONTEST
*The races on the new Atlanta Motor Speedway have all had one dominator in the race. I will use Ryan Blaney as my dominator and use drivers who can score some place differential points with him.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT MULTI-ENTRY CONTEST
*Everyone is going to be stacking the Fords, but the Chevy’s have won two of the three Superspeedway races this year. I will stack the Chevy’s in my lineup to be contrarian. I will also use Bubba Wallace because his is all upside Sunday night.
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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