The NASCAR Cup Series will travel back to Bristol Motor Speedway for the last race in the Round of 16. This time the race will be on concrete and not the dirt. The Bristol Night Race always has a lot of drama. The race to advance to the Round of 12 is very close for the drivers ranked 9th – 16th. It will be fun to see which drivers can have a mistake-free race and which have their playoff hopes ended at Bristol. The Bass Pro Shop Night Race can be seen Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.
BRISTOL PRACTICE SPEEDS
The Cup Series teams had 20-minutes to shake down their cars for Saturday night’s race at Bristol. Practice really does not matter at Bristol. NASCAR applies PJ1 (sticky stuff) on the track. All of the drivers will run the bottom in practice but they will move to the top in the race once the “sticky stuff” is activated. We still need to look at the lap times, but I would not build my lineups from the speed charts. Qualifying is more important, because it has been tough to pass at Bristol. I plan to use many drivers who qualify up front in this race.
STATS FOR THE RACE AT BRISTOL
Bristol is a .533-mile, high-banked concrete oval. The track takes rubber fast, but passing has been difficult in the Gen-7 car. There really isn’t any track on the schedule that is the same at Bristol. I typically look at the driver’s track history at Bristol to help handicap this race. Drivers either know how to get around Bristol or they are in the way. I also add in the data from Dover (another high-banked, concrete oval) and then I use the data from the other short tracks in 2023. This should give us a good idea of which drivers will be fast Saturday night. .
Here are the average DFS Points from the previous races at Bristol and the races on similar tracks this year …
The Bristol Night Race is all about the dominators. We MUST have the drivers who lead the most laps in our lineups or we will not win any money.
The trend in the last three Bristol Night Races is for one driver to lead 170 laps and score 80 fastest laps (78.5 dominator points), another driver leads 140 laps and scores 66 fastest laps (64.7 dominator points) and a third driver leads 110 laps and scores 52 fastest laps (50.9 dominator points). It really doesn’t matter what the other three drivers in the lineup do as long as we score the 195 bonus points that these three drivers are projected to score.
The drivers with the best chance to lead laps and score dominator points include Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Chase Elliott
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points includes Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Erik Jones, AJ Allmendinger and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR BRISTOL
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: KYLE LARSON (DK $11.5K / FD $14K), DENNY HAMLIN (DK $11.2K / FD $13.5K), CHRISTOPHER BELL (DK $10.8K / FD $12.5K), KYLE BUSCH (DK $10.5K / FD $12K), WILLIAM BYRON (DK $10.2K / FD $13K), CHASE ELLIOTT (DK $10K / FD $11K), BRAD KESELOWSKI (DK $9.8K / FDK $11.5K), KEVIN HARVICK (DK $9.5K / FD $9.5K), CHRIS BUESCHER (DK $9.3K / FD $10.5K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: ROSS CHATAIN (DK $8.5K / FD $8.5K), BUBBA WALLACE (DK $8K / FD $7.8K), TY GIBBS (DK $7.9K / FD $7.5K), ALEX BOWMAN (DK $7.6K / FD $7.2K), RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (DK $7K / FD $6.2K), ARIC ALMIROLA (DK $6.9K / FD $6.5K), CHASE BRISCOE (DK $6.7K / FD $6.8K), MICHAEL MCDOWELL (DK $6.6K / FD $6K), AJ ALLMENDINGER (DK $6.4K / FD $5.5K), RYAN PREECE (DK $6.3K / FD $4.5K), AUSTIN DILLON (DK $6.1K / FD $5.2K)
PUNT PLAYS: JUSTIN HALEY (DK $5.9K / FD $4.8K), HARRISON BURTON (DK $5.6K / FD $3.5K), TODD GILLILAND (DK $5.3K / FD $3K), RYAN NEWMAN (DK $5.2K / FD $2.5K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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