The NASCAR Cup Series will have a home race this weekend when they compete at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The pre-race ceremonies at Charlotte are always cool, because no sport celebrates Memorial Day like NASCAR. The racing should be pretty good too. The last race on a 1.5-mile track (Kansas) was one of the best races for the Cup Series in the Gen-7 car. Hopefully we get 600-miles are great racing Sunday (or whenever they race). The Coca-Cola 600 can be seen Sunday at 6 pm ET on FOX.
CHARLOTTE PRACTICE SPEEDS
The Cup Series was scheduled to have practice and qualifying Saturday evening, but Mother Nature did not cooperate. The starting lineup for the Coca-Cola 600 will be set “per the rule book.” There are some drivers who start deep in the field, who should have a lot of speed Sunday. This should make this a fun race with a lot of “comers and goers” throughout the field.
CUP SERIES STATS AT CHARLOTTE
The Cup Series had two races this year on 1.5-mile tracks (Las Vegas and Kansas). I will be looking at the data from those races and combining it with the data from the race in the Gen-7 car at Charlotte last year. I will also add in the data from the race at Darlington since that track is also considered an intermediate track and it will factor in momentum for Sunday’s race.
Here are the driver’s average DraftKings and FanDuel Points from the races at Las Vegas, Kansas and Darlington this year and the race at Charlotte last year…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 400 laps (600 miles). That means there are 100 points available for leading laps and 180 points available for fastest laps (280 total dominator points). That is a lot of dominator points, and we need to capture as many of these points as possible Sunday.
The trend in the Cup Series race at Charlotte is for one driver to lead roughly 140 laps and score 60 fastest laps (59 dominator points). A second driver leads 90 laps and scores 50 fastest laps (45 dominator points). A third driver leads roughly 50 laps and score 26 fastest laps (24.2 dominator points). A fourth driver leads around 36 laps and cores 24 fastest laps (19.8 Dominator Points). My goal is to try and find the top-two dominators for my lineups Sunday so I can score the roughly 104 dominator points they will likely score.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include William Byron, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez, Austin Dillon, Michael McDowell, AJ Allmendinger and Jimmie Johnson
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
CORE DRIVERS FOR CHARLOTTE
TOP-TIER DRIVERS: KYLE LARSON (DK $11K / FD $14K), WILLIAM BYRON (DK $10.5K / FD $13.5K), DENNY HAMLIN (DK $10.3K / FD $12.5K), ROSS CHASTAIN (DK $10.1K / FDK $13K), MARTIN TRUEX JR. (DK $9.9K / FD $11.5K), CHASE ELLIOTT (DK $9.7K / FD $12K), KYLE BUSCH (DK $9.5K / FD $11K), CHRISTOPHER BELL (DK $9.3K / FD $10.5K), JOEY LOGANO (DK $9K / FD $8K)
VALUE-TIER DRIVERS: TYLER REDDICK (DK $8.8K / FD $9.5K), ALEX BOWMAN (DK $8.6K / FD $10K), BUBBA WALLACE (DK $8.3K / FD $8.5K), TY GIBBS (DK $8.1K / FD $7.2K), DANIEL SUAREZ (DK $7.8K / FD $7.8K), RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (DK $7.3K / FD $7K), AUSTIN DILLON (DK $7.2K / FD $8K), JIMMIE JOHNSON (DK $6.9K / FD $5.8K), ARIC ALMIROLA (DK $6.7K / FD 5.5K), AJ ALLMENDINGER (DK $6.3K / FD $4.5K)
PUNT PLAYS: MICHAEL MCDOWELL (DK $5.7K / FD $5.2K), COREY LAJOIE (DK $5.5K / FD $3K), TY DILLON (DK $4.7K / FD $2.5K)
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,500): It is risky to start the driver who starts from the pole in Cash Contests, but I trust Byron in this race. There will be 12-14 pit stops and the No. 24 team has the second fastest pit crew (according to the average pit stop speeds). Byron also dominated the race at Las Vegas, and he finished 3rd at Kansas. He should be one of the top dominators and Byron should have a good chance to finish in the top-five.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($9,900): Truex was really good in the last race on a 1.5-mile track. Truex led 79 laps and finished 8th. He also led 145 laps in the race two weeks ago at Darlington. Truex has a history of running well in the Coca-Cola 600. He should be a great pick for Cash Contests from the 18th starting position.
TYLER REDDICK ($8,800): Reddick has been good on the Charlotte Roval. He finished 6th, 9th, 14th and 8th in his four Cup Series races on the track. Reddick also finished 9th at Kansas earlier this month. The No. 45 car should finish inside the top-10 from the 15th starting position. That should be good enough for Cash Contests this week.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,600): Bowman is back in the no. 48 car for Hendrick Motorsports. He starts 31st and is a lock for all Cash Contests. His average finishing position on the oval track at Charlotte is 16th. Bowman will score 42 DK Points (Not including fastest laps or laps led points). I will have a lot of ownership of Bowman Sunday.
AUSTIN DILLON ($7,200): I do not play Dillon much in DFS, but he is typically a lock in my lineups at Charlotte when he starts outside the top-20. Dillon won the Coca-Cola 600 in 2017, finished 7th in 2019, 8th in 2020 and 6th in 2021. Dillon starts 33rd and he has a good chance to finish inside the top-15. That will be roughly 45 DK Points.
TY DILLON ($4,900): I am probably playing with fire by having both Dillon Brothers in my lineup, but they both have been good at Charlotte. Ty Dillon has 10 starts on the oval at Charlotte with a 21st-place average finishing position. He finished 22nd earlier this month at Kansas too. Dillon will be a great pick from the 32nd starting position if he can simply finish in the top-25 Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT SINGLE-ENTRY CONTEST
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,300): The Coca-Cola 600 should be a race between Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing. That is how all of the intermediate track races have been this year. Hamlin has come out on top of a couple of those battles. He won the Coca-Cola 600 last year and he won the last race on a 1.5-mile track (Kansas). Hamlin has the track position, and he should have the speed to be one of the dominators Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($10,100): Ross Chastain will be a good pivot from the Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Sunday. There will be 12-14 pit stops and the No. 1 team has the top-ranked pit crew in 2023. Chastain led 285 laps on the intermediate tracks this year and he led 153 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 last year. He should offer a combination of place differential and dominator points Sunday.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,700): Elliott should have a good chance to dominate the race and find his way to Victory Lane if Alan Gustafson brings the same setup as what they had in the Coca-Cola 600 last year. Elliott led 86 laps, won Stage 1 and then he was caught up in an accident on lap 188. Elliott finished 7th at Kansas and 3rd at Darlington this month. The No. 9 car should be a good pick from the 6th starting position.
ALEX BOWMAN ($8,600): I know Bowman will be popular, but I do not mind “eating the chalk” in Single-Entry Tournament Contests. His floor is about 35 DK Points Sunday. That is too good to pass up.
AJ ALLMENDINGER ($6,300): I doubt Allmendinger will have a lot of ownership at Charlotte. This is the oval and not the Roval. Allmendinger finished 18th at Las Vegas and 14th in Kansas. He starts 27th Sunday. Allmendinger will score roughly 38 DK Points if he can have a similar race in the Coca-Cola 600.
TY DILLON ($5,100): Dillon is my “punt play” in the Cash Contest lineup and he will be the “punt play” in the Single-Entry Tournament Contest too. The No. 77 team has shown some improvement over the last month. I do not think many people have noticed, so his ownership should be low.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT MULTI-ENTRY CONTEST
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($9,900): Truex could easily be the top scoring driver in DFS Sunday if he can get the lead. He starts 18th, so he has a good chance to score place differential points. Truex has plenty of time to get to the front. I will play the No. 19 car as one of my dominators at Charlotte.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($9,700): William Byron and Denny Hamlin are going to be the popular picks from the top-6 starting positions. I will pivot to Elliott and save $2K. Elliott has finished 3 of his last 4 races on the oval at Charlotte in the top 2. I would not be surprised if Elliott is the top-scoring driver Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO ($9,000): The narrative in Fantasy NASCAR right now is to fade the Fords on the intermediate tracks because they are at an aerodynamics disadvantage. That is true, but this is a long race and Logano is not a normal driver. He finished 6th earlier this month at Kansas. The No. 22 car may not have speed at the start of the race but Paul Wolfe will have plenty of pit stops to get Logano some track position. I will take my chances with a low owned Logano.
TY GIBBS ($8,100): Gibbs is my sleeper pick to win Sunday. The Coca-Cola 600 has a history of being the track where drivers get their first win. That could happen for Gibbs Sunday. The No. 54 car had a lot of speed at Kansas, but Gibbs was caught up in a wreck. He just needs the same speed and some better luck to finish up front at Charlotte.
BUBBA WALLACE ($8,300): Well, this is a first…. I do not think I have ever played Wallace on a 1.5-mile track when he started inside the top-10, but here we are. Wallace finished 4th at Las Vegas and 4th at Kansas. He fooled me in Sin City and then he fooled me again in the Heartland. I am not going to be fooled by Wallace this week. His car has speed. I just hope he can avoid mistakes and bring it home in the top-five again.
TY DILLON ($4,900): I think I wrote enough about Dillon in this article. He is my favorite “punt play” in the Coca-Cola 600.
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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