DFS NASCAR Picks for Charlotte

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The NASCAR Cup Series made it through the race at Talladega and now it is time for a much calmer, more predictable race, right?…. Not so fast my friend! The race on the Charlotte Roval is the “Talladega of road course racing.” The drama created at the end of these races causes drivers to be very aggressive and move their competitors out of the way so they can get the points they need to advance. There have been five races on the road courses this year, with five different winners. The five races on the Charlotte Roval have had four different winners. The only driver to repeat as a winner in the Charlotte Roval is Chase Elliott (2019 – 2020). It is going to be fun to see how the Bank of America Roval 400 plays out Sunday.

 

CHARLOTTE PRACTICE SPEEDS

The Cup Series had 20-minutes to dial in their cars for the race Sunday. The Charlotte Roval is a 2.28-mile track, so the teams did not have a lot of time to make many long runs in practice. Traffic can also skew a driver’s speed. I doubt we will learn much from the practice speeds, but the group qualifying session should tell us which drivers are fast. I will look at the driver’s speed in practice, but I will be focusing more on starting position Sunday.

 

 

STATS FOR THE RACE AT CHARLOTTE

The Charlotte Roval is a 2.28-mile track that uses the high banks of the oval track and the tight turns of the road course at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The track that is most like the Charlotte Roval is the Indianapolis Road Course. I gave the race at the Brickyard extra weight in the model to help handicap the race Sunday. I also used the data from the races at COTA, Sonoma and Watkins Glen. I added in the data from the last two races at the Charlotte Roval to give us some track history into the model.

Here are the average DFS Points for the drivers on the road courses this year and the last two races at the Charlotte Roval…

 

 

DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY

The strategy for DFS Contests is to select as many drivers as possible who have a good chance to finish in the top-12. This will likely mean we will have to build a balanced lineup, instead of a stars and scrubs lineup. Four drivers lead over 20 laps at the Charlotte Roval last year. We will score a lot of DFS Points if we are able to select these four drivers for our lineups and the other two drivers’ finishes in the top-12.

The drivers with the best chance to lead laps and score dominator points include Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell and A.J. Allmendinger

The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points includes Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, Mike Rockenfeller, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Justin Haley and Ty Dillon

 

 

DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats) 

 Finish = Finishing Points                PD = Position Differential              Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led

* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.

 

 

FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats) 

 

 

CORE DRIVERS FOR CHARLOTTE

TOP-TIER DRIVERSCHASE ELLIOTT (DK $10.5K / FD $14K), KYLE LARSON (DK $10.3K / FD $12.5K), WILLIAM BYRON (DK $10.2K / FD $13.5K), TYLER REDDICK (DK $10K / FD $13K),  MARTIN TRUEX JR. (DK $9.8K / FD $11K), CHRISTOPHER BELL (DK $9.5K / FDK $9.5K),  MICHAEL MCDOWELL (DK $9.1K / FD $12K), A.J. ALLMENDINGER (DK $9K / FD $11.5K)

VALUE-TIER DRIVERSCHRIS BUESCHER (DK $8.8K / FD $9K), RYAN BLANEY (DK $8.6K / FD $7.8K), JOEY LOGANO (DK $8.2K / FD $7.2K),  ALEX BOWMAN (DK $7.7K / FD $7.5K), AUSTIN CINDRIC (DK $7.5K / FD $6.8K), CHASE BRISCOE (DK $7.4K / FD $6.5K),  JUSTIN HALEY (DK $6.7K / FD $6.2K), RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (DK $6.5K / FD $4.5K),  RYAN PREECE (DK $6.3K / FD $5K)

PUNT PLAYS: COREY LAJOIE  (DK $5.8K / FD $4.2K), MIKE ROCKENFELLER  (DK $5.6K / FD $3K) TY DILLON (DK $4.9K / FD $2.5K)

 

 

DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

 

DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST

 

 

FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP

 

 

FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP

 

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