The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Music City this week to race at Nashville Superspeedway. It is hard to believe that this is going to be the fourth year for the Cup Series in Nashville. It seems like yesterday the drivers were lobbying NASCAR to put Nashville on the schedule. So far, the racing has been pretty good at the track. I expect the same this weekend. The Ally 400 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. on NBC.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had a 20-minute practice session Saturday to shake down their cars for Sunday’s race. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs in practice. That is important because there are usually some long green flag runs at Nashville. There were only two cautions in the race last year. Track position is also king at this track. Five of the drivers who finished in the top-six last year all started in the top-eight. We need to focus our picks on the drivers who start up front and have good long-run speed in their cars.
Here are the practice speeds for the Ally 400 …
CUP SERIES STATS AT NASHVILLE
Nashville Superspeedway is a 1.33-mile, concrete, tri-oval track. The most similar track to Nashville is Dover Motor Speedway. The drivers who run well at Dover typically run up front at Nashville. Darlington is a 1.33-mile track that has some similarities to Nashville, but the surfaces are different. I will use the stats from the two Gen-7 car races at Nashville and the races at Dover and Darlington this year to help build the fantasy lineups this week.
Here are the stats from those races, sorted by DFS Points…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race at Nashville is scheduled for 300 laps. That means there are 75 points available for leading laps and 135 points available for fastest laps (210 total dominator points). The trend in the Cup Series races at Nashville is for one driver to lead 100 laps and score 44 fastest laps (44.8 dominator points). A second driver leads 80 laps and scores 38 fastest laps (37.1 dominator points). A third driver leads 50 laps and scores 34 fastest laps (27.8 dominator points). The final dominator leads 30 laps and scores 28 fastest laps (20.1 dominator points). The laps led and fastest laps will likely get spread out between three to four drivers Sunday, since passing for the lead is easier at Nashville than it has been at the smaller tracks. I will play some stars and scrubs lineups to try and get at least three dominators into my lineup at Nashville.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr.
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, Kyle Busch, Daniel Suarez, Erik Jones, AJ Allmendinger, Corey Heim, Todd Gilliland and Justin Haley
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,300): Hamlin is no stranger to dominating the races at Nashville. Hamlin led 114 laps and finished sixth at Nashville in 2022. He led 81 laps and finished third last year. Hamlin posted one of the fastest speeds in his group in practice and Hamlin won the pole for the race. Hamlin has dominated the last three races on concrete. He should do the same Sunday.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($9,800): Truex isn’t retired yet. He had the fastest car last week until Joey Logano put him into the wall. I expect Truex to bounce-back Sunday. He led 50 laps, scored 16 Stage Points and finished second in this race last year. Truex looked pretty fast in his group in practice and then he went out and qualified 17th for the race. That is nothing new for Truex. He qualified 15th, led 69 laps and finished third on the concrete at Dover. He should do the same at Nashville.
RYAN BLANEY ($9,300): Blaney has been the one of the best drivers on the flat tracks and it looks like the No. 12 team figured out something for the high-banked concrete track in Nashville. Blaney posted the second fastest speed in practice and then got loose in qualifying. Blaney starts 18th. He should finish in the top-10 if his practice speed translates into race speed Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($9,000): Chastain has been the best driver at Nashville. He finished first, fifth and second in the three are in the Music City. He is also averaging 34 laps led and eight Stage Points per race. Chastain posted the fourth fastest speed in practice and qualified 20th for the race. Chastain has never finished worse than fifth at Nashville. He will have a good chance for a top-10 finish at his best track.
AJ ALLMENDINGER ($6,500): Allmendinger will be behind the wheel of the No. 16 car for Kaulig Racing Sunday. He has had a lot of success in this car at Nashville. Allmendinger finished 10th at Nashville last year and 19th in 2022. He looked really good in the Xfinity Series race Saturday. Nashville is the best oval track for Allmendinger, so he should move up 10-12 spots in Sunday’s race.
DANIEL HEMRIC ($5,100): I need a cheap driver who will not kill my lineup. Hemric starts 37th, so there is nowhere to go but forward in the race. Hemric had his best race on the concrete at Dover when he finished ninth. I will play Hemric as my “punt play” in the Cash Contest lineup.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
* The race Sunday should be a battle between Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson. I am playing a “stars and scrubs” lineup. I am hoping Hamlin, Bell and Larson lead all of the laps and my cheap drivers all move up 10 spots in the race.
KYLE LARSON ($10,500): Larson has had speed at every track this year. The No. 5 car has been good at Nashville too. Larson finished first, fourth and fifth in the three races in the Music City. The No. 5 car posted the sixth-fastest speed in practice and Larson qualified fourth for the race. There are typically four dominators in this race and Larson has a great chance to be one of them.
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,300): I will play Hamlin in the Cash and Tournament Contest lineups Sunday. Hamlin has turned into the master of the concrete races. I do not know if he talked to “Concrete Carl (Edwards) about these tracks, but Hamlin is really good. He starts on the pole and has the No. 1 pit stall. Hamlin will be tough to beat Sunday.
CHRISTOPHER BELL ($10,000): Bell is on a hot streak right now. He’s won two of the last five races and has an average finishing position of fourth in those races. Bell has also been good at Nashville. He finished seventh, eighth and ninth in his three races in Music City. Bell really liked his car after practice and he qualified third for the race. The No. 20 team is just running too well right now to fade. I will pay up for Bell as one of my dominators Sunday.
TODD GILLILAD ($6,700): Do you know who has been the sixth-best driver in DraftKings over the last two months? Of course it is Gilliland. He has an average finishing position of 13.7 over his last seven races. That is better than Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Martin Truex Jr. and Ryan Blaney. Gilliland is also average eight place differential points in those races. It is time to start taking Gilliland seriously and using him in our DFS lineups.
ERIK JONES ($6,600): Jones is one of my favorite value picks this week. Everyone knows how good Jones has been on the 1.33-mile, high-banked track in Darlington. Jones is also good on the 1.33-mile, high-banked track in Nashville. Jones finished eighth at Nashville last year and 11th in 2022. Jones is a good cheap pick for a top-15 finish Sunday.
JUSTIN HALEY ($5,600): The No. 51 team failed inspection three times Saturday. This means Haley will start in the back and have to serve a pass-through penalty at the start of the race. He will likely go a lap down, but I am not worried about it. The three races at Nashville have averaged nine cautions per race. Haley will have plenty of opportunities to get his lap back. Once he does, he should move into the top-20 from his 33rd starting position. I am hoping the penalty lowers his ownership Sunday.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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