The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Pocono Raceway this weekend for race No. 21 on their schedule. There have been 12 drivers who have been able to win a race and essentially clinch a spot in the playoffs. There are six races left in the regular season and three of them have a history of producing some surprise winners (Pocono, Indianapolis and Daytona). Will we get another fuel-mileage race at Pocono where a driver uses pit strategy to win the race? Those scenarios always create a mess for DFS lineups, but it is something that we have to keep in mind this week. It will be fun to see how it all plays out at this “Tricky Triangle.” The Great American Gateway 400 can be seen Sunday at 2:30 p.m. on USA Network.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
The Cup Series had a 20-minute practice session Saturday to shake down their cars for Sunday’s race. Pocono is a large track, so it was tough for all of the teams to make a long run in practice. We can use the speeds from the single-lap and five-lap average speed charts for our picks this week. Track position should also be important, so the drivers who start up front with have some extra value Sunday.
Here are the practice speeds for The Great American Gateway 400 …
CUP SERIES STATS AT POCONO
Usually it is easy to predict which drivers will run up front once the Cup Series completed 20 races, but that is not the case this week. There is no track on the circuit like Pocono. The best tracks to compare race speed at Pocono to are, Indianapolis and Michigan, but the Cup Series has not competed at those tracks yet. We need to look at the stats from the two races in the Gen-7 car and the races at Texas and Charlotte earlier this season. I know Texas and Charlotte are not shaped or banked like Pocono, but the same aero package was used and those are the flattest of the intermediate tracks so far this season (sometimes you just have to use the tools you have to work with in order to build a clear picture of who will win the race).
Here are the stats from the two races at Pocono and the races at the large intermediate tracks this year, sorted by DFS Points…
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The race Sunday is scheduled for 160 laps (400 miles). That means there are 112 dominator points up for grabs. The dominator points tend to get spread out at Pocono. The trend in the two Gen-7 car races at Pocono is for four drivers to share the dominator points. The main dominator leads 60 laps and scores 20 fastest laps (24 dominator points). The second dominator leads 30 laps and scores 18 fastest laps (15.6). The third dominator leads 24 laps and scores 14 fastest laps (12.3 dominator points). The final dominator leads 20 laps and scores 10 fastest laps (9.5 dominator points). I will pay up for the drivers I think can score the dominator points Sunday. The key to finishing at the top of your DFS Contest has been to have three and maybe all four dominators in your lineup.
The drivers with the best chance to dominate the race Sunday include William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Martin truex Jr. and Kyle Reddick
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points are Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Bubba Wallace, Brad Keselowski, Chase Briscoe, Todd Gilliland, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Justin Haley
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($11,000): Hamlin has been the best driver at Pocono and the switch to the Gen-7 car did not slow him down. Hamlin has seven wins at the Tricky Triangle and he took the checkered-flag in both races in the Gen-7 car. He was DQ’s for having illegal tape on his car in 2022, but that doesn’t mean the No. 11 car couldn’t have been fast without the tape. Hamlin looks fast again this week. This is the best track for Hamlin, so it would be a good idea to use and allocation with the No. 11 car Sunday.
WILLIAM BYRON ($10,000): Byron has cooled down since his hot start to the season, but a trip to Pocono should get him back on track. Byron won the pole, led the most laps (60), but finished 14th do to a bad pit call. The car had a lot of speed and it has a lot of speed this weekend too. Byron posted the second-fastest speed in practice and qualified second for the race. Byron has a good chance to be the top dominator Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,800): I am probably a week late with this pick, but I do believe in momentum. I also believe in Hendrick Motorsports at Pocono. Bowman won at Pocono in 2021 and he has an average finishing position of 10.4 in his last five races at the Tricky Triangle. Bowman posted the 15th fastest speed in practice and qualified sixth for the race. The No. 48 team has their win in the bank, so they can gamble on fuel-mileage Sunday to try and steel another win in the Cup Series.
BUBBA WALLACE ($7,600): Pocono is one of the best tracks for Wallace. His average finishing position at Pocono since he joined 23XI Racing is 9.5. The No. 23 can has some speed again this weekend. Wallace posted the foirth-fastest speed in practice, but he missed his marks in qualifying. Wallace should score the most place differential points Sunday.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. ($6,500): I wasn’t planning on using Stenhouse this week, but here we are. Stenhouse finished seventh and 18th in his two races in the Gen-7 car at Pocono. He will be one of the best picks in the field if he can finish inside the top-20 from the 31st starting position. I think he can do it, so I will take a chance with Stenhouse.
TODD GILLILAND ($6,800): Gilliland has been the best value driver in DFS this year. He has finished his last seven races on oval tracks in the top-17. I know Pocono is not an oval, but the same aero package will be used this week that Gilliland scored all of those DFS Points in. Pocono is a strategy race and the No. 38 team is not afraid to gamble. His team will get Gilliland some track position and he should score well from the 33rd starting position.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
* I faded the chalk last week with Shane van Gisbergen and Kyle Larson and it paid off nicely. Denny Hamlin and William Byron will be the highest owned drivers Sunday, so I will fade them in this lineup (I will pair them together in some Single-Entry lineups). If anything happens to Hamlin and Byron, the drivers I have in my lineup should dominator the race.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. ($10,200): We are 20 races into the season and Truex is still looking for his first trip to Victory Lane. It could happen this week at Pocono. Truex has two wins at the Tricky Triangle on his resume. He finished seventh in the Gen-7 car in 2022 and third last year. The No. 19 car posted the third-fastest speed in practice and qualified third for the race. Truex is usually pretty good when he qualifies up front, so he should have a good chance to be one of the top dominators Sunday.
TYLER REDDICK ($9,800): Reddick has been the second-best driver at Pocono in the Gen-7 car. Denny Hamlin took the checkered flag in both races (but he was DQ’d for failing post-race inspection in 2022). Reddick finished second in both races. The No. 45 car has a lot of speed again this weekend. Reddick posted the fastest speed in practice and qualified seventh for the race. The No. 45 car is just too fast to fade this weekend at Pocono.
TY GIBBS ($9,000): Pocono has a habit of being the track where drivers get their first win. Denny Hamlin did it in 2006, Chris Buescher did it in 2016 and Ryan Blaney won his first race at the Tricky Triangle in 2017. I would not be surprised if Gibbs broke his maiden at Pocono. The No. 54 car posted the sixth-fastest speed in practice and he won the pole for the race. I just need Gibbs to get the early lead and then run away from the pack with the clean air his car will have. Gibbs is risky from the pole, but a risk I am willing to take.
BRAD KESELOWSKI ($8,800): Keselowski has not won at Pocono since he did it with a broken ankle in 2011. He has been pretty consistent at the track. Keselowski has an average finishing position of 8.8 since 2015 at Pocono (15 races). That is a large sample size with a lot of positive results. The No. 6 car has the speed to finish up front again this weekend.
TODD GILLILAND ($6,800): Gilliland is just too good to pass up from the 33rd starting position. The average finishing position for Gilliland this year is 18th. Gilliland starts 33rd. He will be a top-10 pick in this race if Gilliland can finish inside the top-15 Sunday.
DANIEL HEMRIC ($5,400): I will take a chance with Hemric as my “punt play” this weekend. He has had some success at Pocono in the Xfinity Series and his car looked decent in practice. Hemric posted the 25th-fastest speed in practice and he starts 27th. I just need Hemric to stay out of trouble and finish inside the top-25.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
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