The NASCAR Cup Series will travel to Phoenix Raceway this week for some short track racing. The races so far this season have been pretty good. The Gen-7 car has struggled to put on a good show at the short tracks, so NASCAR is bringing a new aero-package to the track this week. The feedback from the test session at Phoenix last December was positive, so hopefully the race Sunday is worthy of winning an Oscar for “Best Finish of the Year.” The Shriners Children’s 500 can be seen Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING
NASCAR is doing their best to improve the short track racing with the Gen-7 car. That means a new aero-package and extra track time for the teams. The Cup Series had a 50-minute practice session Friday. Most of the teams were able to make some long runs to see what kind of speed they will have for the race. We need to us this information for our picks this week.
Track position is important at Phoenix since this is one of the shortest races of the season. Long run speed is also important because the Gen-7 car has only averaged two wrecks (or spins) per race. Christopher Bell said after the test session at Phoenix in December, “The package is not perfect. I doubt we will ever get this car to driver on the short-tracks like the old car did, but the changes made today were an improvement. The cars are move drive able now. We can make some bold moves and not have to worry about spinning out.” I expect some long green flag runs in Sundays race and one driver to lead a lot of laps.
Here speeds from Friday’s practice at Phoenix Raceway…
DRAFTKINGS POINTS ON PHOENIX (2022 – 2023)
There have been four races at Phoenix in the Gen-7 car. Ryan Blaney is the only driver to finish all four races in the top-five. Ross Chastain is the only driver to finish three of the four races in the top-five. Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano and Chase Briscoe have combined to lead 1,091 laps in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix (87% of the laps). These drivers should all be good picks for Sunday’s race.
Here are the stats from the last four races at Phoenix Raceway sorted by DFS Points….
DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY
The Shriners Children’s 500 is scheduled for 312 laps (312 miles or 502 kilometers). That means there are 78 DK Points available for leading laps and 149.4 DK Points available for fastest laps (218.4 total dominator points). The trend in the Gen-7 car races at Phoenix Raceway is for one driver to lead 150 laps and score 50 fastest laps (60 dominator points). Another driver leads 100 laps and scores 38 fastest laps (42.1 dominator points). There are two drivers who average 18 laps led and 30 fastest laps (18 dominator points). We must have the top two dominators in our lineup Sunday. We will not win any cash if we are not able to score the 102 dominator points they are likely to score.
The drivers with the best chance to score dominator points today includes Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney
The drivers with the best chance to score place differential points include Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, Austin Cindric, Josh Berry, Corey LaJoie and Ryan Preece
DRAFTKINGS MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
Finish = Finishing Points PD = Position Differential Fastest = Fastest Laps Led = Laps Led
* The number in front of the driver is his projected finishing position based on stats.
DRAFTKINGS CASH CONTEST LINEUP
DENNY HAMLIN ($10,500): Hamlin is going to be one of the highest owned drivers Sunday, but that is OK for the Cash Contest lineup. Hamlin posted the second-fastest speed in practice and he starts from the pole. He also has the No. 1 pit stall. That is huge at Phoenix. Hamlin has a great chance to be the top dominator in the race Sunday.
JOEY LOGANO ($9,500): Logano has had a lot of success at Phoenix and he has a fast car this week. Logano posted the fastest speed in practice. The No. 22 car was fast on the long runs too. Logano was second-fastest on the 15 and 20-lap average speed charts. Logano should score a lot of place differential points for the 23rd starting position at Phoenix.
KYLE BUSCH ($9,200): Busch looked horrible in practice. He was so bad that he took the car to the garage to be fixed. He then came out and qualified 31st for the race So, why are we playing Rowdy if his car is so bad? He is Kyle Busch and he can drive a dump truck to a top-20 finish. His average finishing position in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix is 11th. He will be one of the top drivers in DFS if he can finish in the top-15 Sunday.
JOSH BERRY ($7,200): Berry hooked his tire on the seam in qualifying and spun out. Now he starts dead last. Berry filled in for Chase Elliott at Phoenix last year. He started 17th and finished 10th. Now he gets to drive Kevin Harvick’s car with Rodney Childers as his crew chief. Berry should score a lot of place differential points at Phoenix.
RYAN PREECE ($6,900): Phoenix is the best track for Stewart-Haas Racing, so I will have two of their drivers in my Cash Contest lineup. Preece started 25th and finished 12th in the first race at Phoenix last year. He came back in November and finished 14th. Preece has a chance to score a lot of place differential points from the 27th starting position.
AUSTIN CINDRIC ($6,200): Cindric has been having a pretty good season compared to how he has ran in the past. He starts 34th and he posted the fifth-fastest speed in practice. Cindric was also 10th-fastest on the long runs in practice. There is no risk in using Cindric from the back of the field Sunday.
DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
* Everyone is going to own DENNY HAMLIN, so the easiest path to the top of our Tournament Contest is to fade the No. 11 car. This is risky, but it is worth a chance.
* CHRISTOPHER BELL will be another popular pick since he led almost every speed chart in practice. I will fade Bell since he has NEVER led a lap at Phoenix.
JOEY LOGANO ($9,500): Logano is the only driver in the field with two wins at Phoenix over the last 10 races at the track. One of those wins was in the Gen-7 car in 2022. Logano has a car that is fast enough to win the race from the No. 23 starting position.
CHASE ELLIOTT ($8,800): I doubt Elliott will get much ownership from the third starting position. This is a really risky pick, because it has been a while since Elliott dominated a race. He led 153 laps and went to Victory Lane at Phoenix in 2020. Elliott sounded happy with his car after practice. I will take a chance with the No. 9 car Sunday.
ROSS CHASTAIN ($9,000): Chastain dominated the last race at Phoenix. He led 157 laps on his way to Victory Lane. Chastain had the fifth-fastest car on the 15 and 20-lap average speed chart last year when he dominated the race He had the fourth and third-fastest speed on those charts in Friday’s practice. I will play Chastain as a possible dominator at Phoenix.
TY GIBBS ($8,000): The Toyota’s are fast and the last I checked, Gibbs is driving at Toyota. He will be my pivot from Hamlin. It is not too hard to imagine Gibbs pushing Hamlin out of the way and taking the lead early in this race. He did it to Martin Truex Jr. last week. Gibbs will not have much ownership because most people will think Gibbs will lose place differential points. He started eighth and finished fifth last week. I think Gibbs can hold his ground and be a possible dominator Sunday.
ALEX BOWMAN ($7,500): Bowman is a “boom or bust” driver. He is either going to finish in the top-five from the 25th starting position, or he will probably crash out of the race. Bowman had the 11th-fastest car in practice. He will score 46 DK Points if he can finish 11th Sunday.
JOSH BERRY ($7,200): There is no risk and all upside with Berry this week. I know he will be highly owned, but I have been contrarian enough in this lineup to “eat the chalk” with Berry. Having Berry as the anchor in this lineup gives it the potential to score really well.
FANDUEL MODEL (Prediction Based on Stats)
FANDUEL CASH CONTEST LINEUP
FANDUEL TOURNAMENT CONTEST LINEUP
Follow me on (X) Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR
If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook